The ruble: why and by how much will it fall? Will the ruble exchange rate fall by the end of the year When the ruble began to fall.

The ruble exchange rate has ceased to show miracles of strengthening, until recently it was supported by stable oil prices, inflation, high rates, the influx of money from foreign investors into Russian stocks and bonds as part of the carry trade.

Now all this is changing. Summing up, we get the following.

Oil prices fell below $48 per barrel Brent due to large reserves and production growth in the USA, Canada, Brazil, Libya.

Fed raises interest rates for banks and financial markets. Since December, it has risen from 0.5% to 1.25% and will gradually increase further. And our CB, on the contrary, reduces its rate to facilitate lending to the economy and due to the reduction in inflation from 5.4% in 2016 to 4.1% in May 2017. The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decreased over six months from 10% to 9% and by the end of the year will probably reach 8%.

All this reduces the profitability of investments in ruble assets for investors compared, for example, with dollar assets, which reduces the demand for ruble and his course.

An additional negative for him is the investigation in the United States around the hypothetical influence of Russia on their elections, accusations against D. Trump. They create risks associated with Russia, which limits investments in rubles. This is facilitated by the possible introduction of new US financial sanctions, which would be very negative for the country.

And now the question is - what's next? These factors continue to operate, and gradually the ruble will become cheaper. Now it remains too expensive. The price of a barrel of oil in rubles is less than 2,800 rubles. And for the budget you need at least 3000-3100 rubles per barrel.

But at the same time there will be no collapse of our currency. Now the couple's resistance USD/RUB on Forex stands the level of 58.6 rubles / dollar. When it is broken through, a smooth growth will continue until the next most important technical and psychological resistance of 60 rubles / dollar. The increase, obviously, will then tend to the level of 63-67 rubles / dollar. in the coming months. But hardly higher. These are the limiting factors. Oil prices are likely to rise gradually by the end of the year in the range of $50-55 per barrel. After all, the reduction in production by 1.8 million barrels. per day in OPEC+ countries, extended until the 1st quarter of 2018, is still faster than its growth in other countries. Stocks and supply of "black gold" will decrease, and demand will rise, especially at low prices.

Interest rates on ruble-denominated assets, despite their “opposite” with dollar ones, remain much higher than the average in the world. Russian 10-year OFZs, although they have fallen from the previous 8.5%, remain at a high level of 7.9%. The gradual cessation of the fall of the economy of our country in 2017 will also prevent the ruble from falling too much. So, most likely, the corrective range is up to 67 rubles/dollar. maintained for the coming semester. The classic corrective level of 38.2% of the decline since the beginning of 2016 is located at 67.2 rubles/dollar.

Mark Goykhman, Lead Analyst, TeleTrade Group

Now many are wondering if the dollar will grow in the near future (2017-2018)? On the Internet you can find a variety of predictions about this. But we will analyze all the really significant factors, on the basis of which everyone can make their own forecast.

background

In 2012, the US government began to carry out a set of measures aimed at stimulating the economy. This was supposed to help strengthen the national currency. This was the third such program. She ended in 2014. As part of this, the following measures were taken:

attraction of additional investments into the US economy;
attracting additional labor force;
increase in the cost of national production.

The ultimate goal of all this was to lower interest rates on loans. These steps have worked great!

In 2014, the United States economy made a significant breakthrough. In that year, growth was 2.4%, as in 2015. 2016 was not so productive and then there was an increase of only 1.6%. But many experts from Russia and other countries are convinced that this is not at all the growth that the government expected. They say that in the future, the US economy will fall and because of this, the dollar will also decline against other currencies. Let's just say that this information is not true.

The economic crisis in the United States - myth or reality

According to experts, the first quarter of 2017 turned out to be much more productive than expected. So GDP increased by 1.2%, which means that if things continue to go well, the economy will grow by 2.1% in 2017. This was facilitated by the fact that much more investment was received from the business than originally envisaged. In addition, the consumption of the population is also steadily growing. This means that ordinary people are buying more and more goods, as their wallet allows them.

But in April of this year, Bloomberg published an article in which experts spoke about a real-life crisis in the United States of America. They highlighted that the government's investment in shale oil and gas has not paid off. In addition, in the same first quarter of 2017, corporate profit fell by 9.8%, which is a critical indicator. Bloomberg experts say that America is in for a crisis that will include the following:

The crisis of consumers - they will not be able to buy as much as they want and the goods they want.
Stock market crash.
Defaults among the population and companies, including banks.
Shortage of the budget due to the insolvency of the population.

But it was only a prediction that has not yet come true. At the beginning of 2017, consumer spending rose by 0.6%. Even according to the most optimistic forecasts, this indicator should have grown by 0.3%. This, by the way, according to the same Bloomberg data. In addition, investments in fixed assets also increased, and by 11.4% (if we take the figures for the last 5 years), while experts predicted an increase of 9.4%. The number of investments in real estate increased by 13.7%.

Based on all this, we can say that the GDP, and accordingly the entire US economy, is growing, it is on the rise, and much more so than even the most daring forecasters expected. Bloomberg's conclusions have nothing to do with reality, which means that the dollar will become stronger. But there are a few more factors to consider.

Role of China

At the moment, China is becoming an increasingly influential force in the global economy. The largest number of goods in all countries of the world comes from China. Oddly enough, but the growth of the economy of this country is also slowing down. But what is interesting is that, according to some experts, China wants to bring down the US economy. Recently, the government has even invested in Russian projects to strengthen the ruble (these projects are currently on hold).

This conclusion also has little to do with reality. The fact is that American consumers buy more goods from China than anyone else. Therefore, the Chinese government is interested in the growth of the dollar. Interestingly, along with the US currency, the yuan is also growing, given their dynamics over the past few years.

On the other hand, the United States is preparing certain measures of pressure on China because of the DPRK. At the moment, it is not known what these sanctions will be, but according to rumors, the Celestial Empire will face trade restrictions. But because of this, it will not be the United States that will suffer, but only China, and in the same way that Russia is suffering now. America will only get stronger from such actions.

What will happen to oil

Also, the situation with oil has a significant impact on whether the dollar will rise or fall. If we take the indicators for the last year, we can observe one simple trend: if the price of oil falls, then the dollar rises and vice versa. By the way, if the cost of a barrel of oil rises, then the ruble also rises.

Recently, US oil production has been declining, and the price has been quite low. But in the future it is planned to increase its production. This means that the United States will make do with its own resources rather than buying them from other countries, notably Russia and Iran. Of course, this will positively affect the economy of this country, and, accordingly, the growth of the dollar. The US will have its own oil. There are several prerequisites for this:

because of such prices, America can increase the number of its own wells;
shale companies will again operate at full capacity (again, due to an increase in the number of wells);
the new President Trump may well make federal lands available for mining.

All this will lead to the fact that the cost of oil will fall, because there will not be such a strong demand for it as before. Some experts believe that this figure could jump up to $65 per barrel at any moment. But there are all prerequisites to believe that this will not happen. Even if this forecast does come true, shale companies will become more active and the price will still fall, and immediately by 15-20 dollars.

Fed policy

The Federal Reserve System in the United States of America determines the refinancing rate. Related to this is the value of the national currency for banks within the country. To put it simply, banks in the United States borrow dollars from the government, and then give them back, but already taking into account the above-mentioned rate. It turns out that if the Fed rate is high, the rate of the national currency will be the same. Of course, this is bad for banks, because they will need to give back more, but for the country's economy as a whole, this is good. In addition, such decisions will definitely not lead to the collapse of the banking system, since the banks have enough funds to multiply the rate increase.

So, since 2014, this rate has been raised three times - at the beginning of 2016, 2017 and in the middle of 2017. This led to the following consequences:

the opportunity to reform the tax system and receive even more income (at the same time, taxes from businesses began to be taken less);
positive dynamics of the growth of the labor market - there are more and more jobs (this, in turn, led to a decrease in the unemployment rate);
overall economic growth.

At the moment, there are practically no prerequisites for the government to increase the rate again. As for when the dollar starts to grow because of this, it is already happening. USA on the rise! Even if there is a slight drop in the exchange rate, the government will increase the rate again and everything will return to normal.

global situation

Whatever experts and ordinary people say, the dollar affects the entire world economy. It is on the exchange rate of this currency in relation to the national one that the government of any country relies when assessing the state of affairs. It turns out that if everything is good in America, everything will be the same in other countries. This is especially true of the states in which the United States invests.

Therefore, China, and Russia, and Ukraine, and South Africa, and in general all states in the world depend on the dollar. No wonder the governments of many countries are investing huge amounts of money in the US economy, in particular, in securities. Incidentally, the Russian Federation is also actively doing this. The Russian government has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the US economy.

It is beneficial for all countries that everything is fine in America, therefore there are no prerequisites for the fall of the national currency of this state, and will not be in the coming years. That is why, even when there was a fall in financial terms all over the world, in some places even a default was recorded, the dollar still remained the most reliable and stable currency. No matter how strong the crisis is, governments will still do everything possible to strengthen the dollar. Therefore, in the long term, it will still grow, and as for the near future, growth will also be observed for the reasons indicated above.

When can the dollar exchange rate fall?

There are only two scenarios, the implementation of which can lead to a fall in the US currency in the long and short term:

All or most countries will sell their dollar bonds. This, in fact, will mean that governments will refuse to use this currency. They will no longer invest their money in it.
All countries together will refuse to trade in dollars. In this case, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant. It is interesting that now some desperate countries are already trying to carry out this scenario. For example, the Russian Federation trades its goods for rubles. But these are isolated cases.

That is, all countries must come together and form a kind of "conspiracy" against the United States. As mentioned above, this will not be beneficial to any of them, as it will lead to an inevitable fall or even collapse of the economy of all states in the world. Of course, over time, everything can be restored, but the problem is that the United States has not yet annoyed everyone so much that they are ready to get together and oppose this country. So the implementation of these scenarios is also unlikely, both in the near future and in the distant future.

The ruble will rise from its knees

Many people are interested not only in when the dollar will rise, but also what will happen to the ruble in connection with this. The answer is very simple - the Russian currency will fall. And there are many reasons for this, here are just a few:

Financial assets move from Russia to other countries. Moreover, as we said above, the government itself is doing this, investing money in the US economy.
The population does not invest in the national currency at all, but only in the same dollars or euros. People prefer to keep their savings in the currency of other states.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not convert the ruble into the dollar during the depreciation, which has a very negative effect on it.
Sanctions and negative attitude from the European Union, as well as the rest of the world.

On the other hand, due to the increase in the level of domestic production, the ruble may strengthen. So the ruble, if it falls against the dollar, then not by much. Most experts agree that the rate will be at the level of 60-70 rubles per dollar.

By the way, if you are wondering what will happen to the Ukrainian hryvnia, then it will also fall. Usually the greatest decrease in this rate occurs in winter. In addition, whatever one may say, the hryvnia is falling along with the ruble. Experts constantly deny this, but practice shows that this is the case.

Conclusion

So, the US national currency against the ruble, hryvnia, euro and so on will grow. In the near future growth will be small, but in the future it will continue. There are several reasons to believe so:

there is no crisis in the USA, the economy is on the rise;
China and everyone else is not interested in the fall of the dollar, quite the contrary;
the cost of oil is likely to fall due to the fact that America will open more of its own wells.

This currency can only fall if all countries come together and stop using the dollar. In the near future it is impossible, however, as well as in the next few years. So there is every reason to believe that the dollar will rise even more!

The Bank of Russia, on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, this week began buying foreign currency as part of the implementation of the new budget rule. These purchases were supposed to lead to a weakening of the ruble, which, according to representatives of the Ministry of Finance, should be 10% lower than it is currently set. However, the ruble did not fall sharply.

The decrease took place, but it was a point and rather associated with a drop in oil prices below $ 55 per barrel against the backdrop of statistics on the oil and petroleum products market in the United States. Nevertheless, by the end of the week the official one is 59.02 rubles, the euro - 63.03 rubles.

The situation hastened to explain the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. She once again stressed that the purchase of foreign currency under the transitional budget rule should not be seen as an attempt to influence the ruble exchange rate. According to the head of the Central Bank, the regulator will continue to adhere to the floating "exchange" rate, which is an integral part of the inflation targeting policy.

Nevertheless, experts noted, there are a number of alarming signals for the ruble. So, on Thursday, the Ministry of Finance failed for the second time since the beginning of the year when trying to borrow money on the market. During auctions of federal loan bonds this week, the department failed to sell the entire volume of securities. As a result of two placements, the Ministry of Finance received from investors 30 billion rubles instead of the planned 40. At the same time, demand for securities turned out to be lower than supply, even though the Ministry of Finance provided a significant discount, increasing yield compared to the market by 10 basis points. This, experts believe, indicates that the circle of creditors of the Russian government is rather small, and negative expectations are high.

Purchases of currency by the Ministry of Finance on the open market did not really have any impact on the dynamics of the dollar / ruble pair, and, according to Sergey Melnikov, chief analyst at GLOBAL FX, this was generally expected. The authorities initially noted that the purchases would be carried out evenly, and the effect of them would be minimal. Based on a combination of factors, the company believes, the USDRUB pair is preparing to end the week at the same levels as it started - below 59 rubles.

At the same time, the analyst states, what to do with the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, according to which the ruble should be devalued by 10% to 64.90 per dollar, is still unclear. We can definitely say that the current situation in the foreign exchange market does not suit our authorities, and the ruble exchange rate should be reduced. The main issue now is the tools that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation can use to return our currency to more comfortable levels for the budget.

On the other hand, a situation may arise in which such measures may not be required. The ruble is highly dependent on oil prices, and a barrel of Brent has been below $56 for most of the week. The positive on the energy market looks fragile, and a downward reversal may well occur, especially against the background of new signs of growth in production and reserves in the US. In such conditions, Sergei Melnikov expects, Brent risks dropping to 53.50 dollars and lower, and the ruble exchange rate in response to this, due to natural market factors, will drop to 60.50 - 61 per US currency unit.

The start of the program of the Ministry of Finance for the purchase of foreign currency did not lead to a fundamental change in the local foreign exchange market, Alexander Egorov, a leading analyst at TeleTrade Group, agrees. The volume of announced operations for the period from February 6 to March 7 is 6.3 billion rubles a day. At the current exchange rate, this is about 105-106 million dollars. With daily turnover on the Moscow Exchange ranging from $1.5 billion to $3 billion, this volume did not put any significant pressure on the Russian ruble. The possible cumulative effect of these operations in its pure form may appear within a few months.

Macroeconomic parameters are still helping to maintain interest in Russian assets. With inflation around 6% and a key rate of 10%, the yield differential is in favor of even the most low-yielding but, accordingly, reliable instruments, such as government bonds. But at the same time, the expert believes, it is worth carefully monitoring and evaluating the results of the OFZ auctions held by the Ministry of Finance. The stability of the Russian currency in recent months against the backdrop of volatility in the oil market and dollar fluctuations in the international currency market is ensured by the implementation of the carry trade strategy, and in the event of a change in the mood of non-residents and the occurrence of reverse flows, the Russian currency may be under strong pressure.

While economic factors give grounds to believe, says Alexander Egorov, that in the coming days the dollar on the local market will remain in the range of 58.50 - 60.50. But it is worth waiting for the initiatives of the new US President Donald Trump regarding tax reforms announced the day before. On the comments on this news, the dollar has already demonstrated growth in the international currency market. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will address Congress next week. This is also a significant event regarding the future prospects of the US currency.

If the proposed tax reforms, coupled with increased expectations of higher rates in the United States, provoke an increase in interest in the dollar, this will also affect the local market. In the medium term, TeleTrade believes that the dollar against the ruble is likely to return to values above 60 rubles. The range of 60-65 rubles per dollar, according to the leaders of the government's economic bloc, is more favorable both for the budget and for the Russian economy. Until the end of the year, this is a very likely scenario.

(10 ratings, on average: 4,60 out of 5)

Well, it's time to write fresh ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018. In this article, I will traditionally review the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the past year, the main factors affecting the value of the Russian currency, how they have changed and may change further, in order to draw conclusions about What will be the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018. I think that it should be interesting to all residents of the Russian Federation.

As always, I want to make a reservation right away: in the article I will cite various facts, on the basis of which I will draw my own conclusions. You have the right to agree with them or disagree, but you must make your financial decisions based on your own (and not mine or someone else's) conclusions, and independently, fully bear responsibility for them.

So, before giving a forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018, it is necessary to consider what its dynamics was in the past year.

Dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017.

In 2017, nothing interesting happened to the ruble. In comparison with previous years, its rate looked quite stable, and even strengthened a little during the year.

Here is a chart showing the dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017:

As you can see for yourself, there was no trend in the ruble in 2017, the rate moved within the channel that I marked on the chart. The year began from the upper border of the channel, and ended closer to the lower one, thus, at the end of the year, the ruble exchange rate slightly strengthened: from about 61 to 57 rubles per dollar, that is, by 6.5%.

It can be stated that in 2017 the ruble exchange rate stabilized and fluctuated within the 56-61 channel. But will this stability continue in 2018? Let's analyze.

Forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018: fundamental analysis.

First of all, let's look at the fundamental factors that affect the ruble exchange rate and how they may change in 2018.

Factor 1. Oil prices. The dependence of the ruble on oil prices is becoming less and less. So, for example, in 2017, oil prices were in a trend, but the ruble exchange rate was not. Here is a chart of Brent oil prices for the same period.

At the beginning of 2017, oil prices were falling, and the ruble was strengthening, although it should have been falling logically. Then oil took a fairly strong uptrend, and the ruble exchange rate fluctuated back and forth, as a result, it practically did not change.

Please note: in June 2017, with an oil price of about $44 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate was about 57 rubles per dollar. In December 2017, with an oil price of about 67 dollars per barrel, the ruble exchange rate is again about 57 rubles per dollar. Oil for this period has risen in price by 1.5 times, and the ruble exchange rate has not changed!

What does it say? On the one hand, the dependence between the ruble exchange rate and the price of oil is declining. On the other hand, we all perfectly understand that the ruble continues to be a commodity currency, and if the ruble exchange rate did not change with the growth of oil by 1.5 times, this means that in the absence of such growth, it would fall.

Thus, further strengthening of oil will not cause a strong strengthening of the ruble, but its fall in price may cause a weakening of the Russian currency.

What will happen to oil in 2018?

The supply of oil in the market still exceeds the demand for it, according to forecasts, this trend will continue;
The OPEC agreement on limiting production may not be extended (analysts see ambiguity in the text, moreover, it is unprofitable for Libya to support it - 50% of the country's GDP is oil revenues);
US shale oil production will increase due to high oil prices;
Development of new conventional oil fields in Alaska is expected.

Therefore, a strong rise in oil prices should not be expected, but a fall from current levels is more likely. With a fall in oil prices, the ruble is likely to weaken as well.

Factor 2. Sanctions. Sanctions, as well as “anti-sanctions”, also have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, although in the last year their influence was not as strong as before. We see that no one is going to lift sanctions, moreover, they are constantly being strengthened, new ones are being introduced.

All this has a negative impact on the Russian economy (I think that there is no one left who believes that “sanctions are only for our benefit”), and indirectly on the exchange rate of the ruble as a national currency. Because the volume of export-import operations is decreasing, the inflow of investments (on the contrary, there is an outflow), GDP, inflation is growing.

The lifting of sanctions and anti-sanctions, especially the complete one, would contribute to a rather significant strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, since it would immediately create serious prerequisites for economic growth. Further expansion of sanctions will continue to put pressure on the economy and the national currency, and contribute to further devaluation of the ruble.

The next negative event in this direction may be a ban on foreign investors from acquiring Russian Eurobonds, OFZ and, which is planned to be imposed in February 2018.

Only after the appearance of this news, a serious outflow of foreign capital from the Russian stock market followed - investors withdrew hundreds of millions of dollars in December.

Therefore, the imposition of such sanctions can have a rather serious indirect impact on the ruble exchange rate and will contribute to its depreciation. Judge for yourself, now about 1/3 of the government bonds of the Russian Federation are in the hands of non-residents - such a share of the capital can be lost only directly due to the introduction of the ban. This will indirectly affect the withdrawal of non-residents' capital from other Russian assets, in particular, shares. The fall of stock market indices in December is a direct confirmation of this.

In addition, the gradual decline in the yield of Russian ruble government bonds leads to the fact that even without a ban they become unprofitable for foreign investors (the ratio ceases to be attractive).

All this indicates the continued outflow of foreign capital from the Russian Federation, which will contribute to the growth of the currency deficit and, as a result, the weakening of the ruble.

Factor 3. Central bank policy. When giving a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018, one should definitely consider the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as the main currency regulator in the country. Consider his main instruments of currency regulation, and how he applies them.

Discount rate. During 2017, the Central Bank lowered it 6 times, and in general lowered it by 25% - from 10% to 7.75%. The decrease step is small: 0.5-0.25 points, so this did not lead to significant currency fluctuations in the market.

Reducing the discount rate is a good trend for the economy, stimulating economic growth. However, economic growth, in turn, stimulates inflation, which means that foreign currency, like any other commodity, can grow in price, and the value of the national currency, respectively, can decrease.

In 2018, the discount rate may continue to decline, even weaker than in 2017. In my opinion, this factor will not have any significant impact on the ruble exchange rate.

foreign exchange interventions. Here is more interesting. By the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, through the Central Bank, was increasingly actively buying foreign currency on the Moscow Exchange. So, for example, in September and October it was bought for 76 billion rubles each month, in November - for 123 billion rubles, and in December - as much as 204 billion rubles. While in the first months of the year such purchases were carried out for only 3-6 billion rubles per month.

Such an increased demand for the currency should have caused an increase in its value, and, consequently, a slight depreciation of the ruble, but this did not happen, on the contrary, in the last months of 2017, the ruble strengthened.

Moreover, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and representatives of other state financial institutions have repeatedly carried out the so-called. “verbal interventions”, declaring that by the end of the year the dollar exchange rate will definitely grow, which pushed the population and institutional investors to buy up the currency. However, again, the growth of the dollar and other currencies did not happen, despite the increase in demand, the effect was the opposite.

This situation once again confirms that the forecasts of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and other government agencies have the opposite effect. For example, when in 2014-2015 senior officials repeatedly spoke about the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, it continued to fall. Now, when they actively claimed that they would fall, on the contrary, it strengthened a little.

All this suggests that the forecasts of the ruble exchange rate they voice have little in common with the real forecasts, which, I suspect, they also calculate.

Factor 4. Presidential elections. In the forecast of the dollar in Russia for 2018, one cannot ignore the presidential election, which will be held in March. In recent years, the economic situation in the country has deteriorated significantly. It is logical that on the eve of the elections, the incumbent president needs to demonstrate some improvement in the situation, some positive dynamics, which will add weight and voter support to him.

One of the factors of such an improvement, which is always well received by the population, is the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and other currencies. “Here you are, the ruble is strengthening, which means it is getting better, we are pursuing the right policy” - this message can be seen among others.

I believe that before the elections, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, if necessary, will in every possible way restrain the fall of the ruble and even, on the contrary, try to strengthen it, for example, by the same interventions. And for some time after the elections, too, so that there was no clear “border” of the trend change, coinciding with the elections. But then, somewhere from the middle of summer, autumn, this containment will most likely not happen, since there will be practically no resources left for this.

Factor 5. Economic indicators. The final macroeconomic indicators have not yet been published, but according to preliminary data, it is clear that the Russian economy is in a state of stagnation. GDP growth is less than planned, around 2% per year. In the absence of global economic reforms, one should not expect any improvements in 2018; I know nothing about plans for such reforms.

Inflation will range from 2.5 to 3%, however, its decline is associated, rather, not with the stabilization of the economy, but with a complete drop in the purchasing power of the population (in 2017 it is reduced by 1-2% compared to 2016, and all previous years fell even more). In 2018, the Central Bank itself predicts a slight increase in inflation compared to 2017.

Separately, I would like to note the closure of the reserve fund and the reduction at the end of the year from 71.87 to 65.15 billion dollars. This suggests that financial reserves are increasingly depleted, and if necessary, there will soon be nothing to use.

Personally, I do not see and do not assume any significant positive changes in the economy that could positively affect the ruble exchange rate, and in comparison with the above factors, I consider this one not so significant.

Forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018: technical analysis.

Now that we have looked at the main global factors that will affect the ruble exchange rate in 2018, let's conduct a technical analysis to determine when and how quotes can move.

Attention to the chart:

In the last year, the ruble exchange rate was clamped in, symbolizing the figure of uncertainty. On the graph, it is indicated by blue lines. If the figure “works”, it means at what moment a breakdown will occur, and the course will leave the triangle in one of the directions, at least by the amount of the initial height of the triangle.

In my opinion, breaking the triangle down, which would mean the strengthening of the ruble somewhere up to 51 rubles per dollar, is unlikely, there are too many negative fundamental factors. Therefore, such a breakout is more likely to occur upwards after the rate fluctuates inside the triangle for some time.

At the top, I marked with blue lines the most significant nearest ones, on which, most likely, the rate will be delayed - these are 62, 63.5, 65, 66.5. If the level of 66.5 is broken, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble can rise much more significantly - the next significant levels are from 75 and above.

Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia for 2018: conclusions.

Summing up the results of the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2018, I can draw the following conclusions:

In general, fundamental factors suggest that the ruble will fall.
There is a serious factor that is currently holding back this fall - this is a strong rise in oil prices.
As long as oil prices continue to rise and remain high, the ruble exchange rate will change little, and a strong appreciation is unlikely.
If the oil trend changes to fall, the ruble exchange rate will begin to fall.
The greatest dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other currencies can be expected from the second half of 2018, in the first half it will most likely be weak.
The most realistic scenario is the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate throughout the year in the range of 60-70 with a tendency to rise in price.
With a significant increase in some negative factors, the dollar exchange rate may rise to higher levels, and vice versa, if the fundamental situation improves, the ruble exchange rate may fall more weakly, or continue to fluctuate in the current range until the end of the year.

Such a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018 turned out for me. As always, I am ready for a constructive dialogue in the comments. Also, you can always study other forecasts of experts and analysts, both well-known and not so well-known. Most importantly, remember that you alone are responsible for your financial decisions.

Join the number of regular visitors to the site and improve your financial literacy to better understand the economic processes and manage your personal finances more effectively. Until we meet again on the pages of the site!

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Comments on the entry: 69

Hello again! I don’t even know where to start) I only read the beginning of the article, I really liked your warning about what is dangerous
listen to other people's opinions when it comes to finances), I remember telling you about this last year that people should be warned. I don’t think you should write anything about last year, you can see for yourself who was right and who was wrong. The dollar has not flown anywhere, oil is under 70, that is, exactly as I wrote a year ago.
I won’t write anything about the article itself, I haven’t read it yet, but I think I’ll write it off later.

Hello, you are right here). In my opinion, you are exclusively engaged in tracking this topic, but by the way, this is your business. Of course, you will write back later, because only for this you come here, but I immediately warn you traditionally: the slightest manifestation of disrespect, and your comment will not be. So read it very well before sending 🙂
Last year, I did not write that the dollar would "fly away somewhere." I will quote: “the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2017 at the moment can be described in one word: “uncertainty”. Conclusions: 1. Uncertainty. 2. Dollar up rather than down.” And the word “uncertainty” was repeated many times in the article. Actually, this is what happened - nothing happened, no special movements up or down. Uncertainty as it was, and remained at the end of the year.

Again, I see the comment was deleted, but oh well, it was addressed specifically to you, others do not have to read it.

Let's go for oil)
The fact that oil has risen in price 1.5 times as you write, and the ruble exchange rate has remained at the same level, in no case can mean what you wrote, it only says one thing - buying up excess currency, for example: the Ministry of Finance will buy currency in the domestic market by 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018. Not weak, right? I kind of wrote last year that they would keep the course by any means, since further strengthening of the ruble would hit competitiveness hard
our manufacturers in the global market.
Regarding the supply and demand of oil. There is still an oversupply, but it is not at all significant, it is worth looking at how much it has decreased over the year, the picture immediately changes. If this continues, then in 3-5 years we will face not an overabundance, but a deficit. Consumption is growing at a rapid pace around the world, for example: Chinese oil imports totaled 34 million metric tons in December. As a result, 2017 imports rose by 10.1% to a record 420 million metric tons + a major drawdown in US inventories.
As for OPEC, I didn’t understand at all what kind of extension we are talking about? As far as I know, it has been extended until the end of 2018.
Why did you decide that US production will increase enough to put serious pressure on world prices? The number of drilling rigs has recently decreased, and it is too early to talk about increasing production.
And what about Alaska? How this can affect oil this year I do not understand at all. Do you even know how long mining takes?

Personally, I think that oil will continue to grow this year, it is difficult to say to what price it will rise, but there can be no talk of a fall.

Hello, I am writing from the phone, there may be blots. Michael, state your version for 2018. And more specifics. Such things as you write must be confirmed by facts. Leave the emotions to the women. Sincerely.

Or maybe you yourself write something on the topic first, before demanding it from others? What specifics are we talking about? I have only written about oil so far, and I explained my position in sufficient detail and detailed, even more detailed than it is written in the article. I don't owe you anything, so be content with what I write. I didn’t understand about emotions at all, what emotions should I leave to women?

About emotions it is not necessary to nod towards women. You men have even worse emotions.

Sanctions.
The only thing I agree with is that the sanctions have practically no pressure on the exchange rate.

You write that the tightening of sanctions will negatively affect trade? In 2017, there were also repeated tightening of sanctions, but foreign trade turnover increased by $ 95 billion compared to 2016, while there are no data for the entire year, I can only compare to November.

Why write about the pitiful millions that were withdrawn from the stock market, I don’t understand at all, last year they brought it in, they took it out, they invest again next year, all the more so to write that this is a serious outflow. These are such insignificant sums that it is even difficult to call them - “A drop in the ocean”, it is much less. And based on this, you decided that there is an outflow of investments from the country? I just have no words.

GDP. What's wrong with GDP? It grew by almost 2% and no sanctions could prevent growth.

Rising inflation. I didn't even think about such a low inflation rate. Here, too, the sanctions did not exert any pressure.

Everything happened exactly as I wrote a year ago)

Conclusion: the sanctions, both last year and this year, will not be able to put serious pressure on the exchange rate.

Central Bank policy.
Discount rate. Let's start with the fact that it is correct to write - the key rate, not the discount rate) Of all that has been written, only that the reduction in the key rate is positive for the ruble is true. Why did you decide that economic growth will stimulate the growth of inflation and, moreover, the growth of the currency? It largely depends on what this economic growth will be based on, on the contrary, it can strengthen the ruble if this growth is due to exports, and our exports grew more than imports last year.
foreign exchange interventions. It's... I just don't have the words. What is the increased demand for the currency, what are you talking about? They're buying up the surplus! And by the end of the year, purchases increased due to rising oil prices, as there were a lot of surpluses! They buy it for only one reason - to keep the course, to prevent the ruble from strengthening. If they didn’t do this, Konstantin would have been left without “pants”, since the exchange rate would have been 52-54) But such an exchange rate is not beneficial for our economy, that’s why they buy it. And as I wrote above, the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency on the domestic market for 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018, i.e. more than $4 billion. This is a serious amount for 1 month and everything is surplus! What kind of currency deficit can we talk about in this situation?
Regarding the “forecasts” of the Ministry of Finance, there is nothing surprising) Last year I also remember writing that this scam is for people to buy up foreign currency.

Spelling errors, Michael, interfere with the understanding of your thoughts.

Presidential elections.
There is nothing special to add here, of course they will try to make people feel the improvement, and whether it really is, or not, and at the expense of what or whom it was done, this is a separate issue.

Economic indicators.
GDP, inflation - there are numbers, there is nothing special to add. The reserve fund was not closed, but merged with the National Welfare Fund, these are completely different things. The Reserve Fund currently has a balance of 1 trillion, which should be transferred to the NWF.
Just as before, I do not see any critical changes in the NWF that would give prerequisites for its depletion.

Well, now actually my forecast) The course will be in the range of 55-65, of course, it is unlikely that it is higher than 63, but I leave a small margin)
I will sign a little, although much has already been written above, I will repeat everything exactly.

1. Oil prices. Oil will rise in price, of course, rollbacks are possible throughout the year, but one way or another, it will grow, you can read more about it above. Therefore, the inflow of currency will grow along with oil, thereby creating an overabundance, which by itself will work to strengthen the ruble.

2. Volumes of foreign trade. Overall indicators for the year have not yet been published, but we can say with confidence that the volumes have grown by about 25% per year, I can tell you this is just a gigantic growth, moreover, exports are growing more than imports. Accordingly, the balance increases, and hence the surplus of the currency. Perhaps this year we will not see such an increase, but there will be no fall, all the more. Any increase in volumes, even if not very significant, will be positive for the ruble.

3. Economic indicators are slowly growing, this year the growth will be approximately the same, so we should not expect a serious weakening of the ruble.

While everything indicates that it will be very difficult for the dollar to rise above 60, a number of changes may occur during the year that will help it go beyond this mark, or may not happen. To be honest, the chance to break through 55 seems more real to me than to break through 65)

I want to warn everyone that this is all my personal opinion and reasoning, you should not invest money based only on my forecast, I just provided the analytics and my conclusions. Although my forecasts were very accurate for 2 years in a row and fully reflected the picture of what was happening after, this does not mean that I cannot be wrong. You risk your money and you need to think with your head!

There will be questions, write)

Question: why, with all the positive or neutral factors that you have described, do you predict a depreciation of the ruble?

Konstantin, I am talking about what I spoke about last year - do not expect a strong weakening of the ruble. If 5-10% is a reduction in price for you, which, in principle, can be equal to inflation, then let there be a reduction in price)

Michael, this is great. Here you write all the time “and I said…”, “isn’t that what I told you…”, “but I turned out to be right…”. And under the previous article on this topic, you wrote the same thing about an article two years ago. But since you like to repeat it so much, then your own words in the first commentary on the forecast for 2017: “The dollar exchange rate at the end of 2017 is no more than 70.”. Yes, you are really right!!! He is no more than 70! And you can also write “no more than 100” or “above 40”. And in the next comment, you wrote “For the perfect balance, we need a rate of 65 now, with a gradual increase in the 70 region.” The course, which “we need for the perfect balance”, as you can see, did not work out, and during the year there was not even one. Even though you said... And the most interesting thing is that you and I predicted identically in the direction of movement. I wrote that it will most likely grow weakly, and you, too, even you set higher figures - so I brought them. Why don’t you write now “Did I say that it will be less than 70, and is it less than 70?”)

Write your numbers for 2018, describe the behavior of the ruble exchange rate so that it does not coincide with my description (in 2017 it did, oddly enough!), and so that in 2019 you also have something to write about “and I said …”. Because these are the main keywords in everything you write 🙂

Already written at the same time, excellent. That's exactly what I wanted to hear.

Last year, you just distracted me a little from the topic. Why don't you like my prediction? I let people know that there would be no strong growth of the dollar! Isn't that what everyone hoped for who bought at 70? As a result, there is no growth. Therefore, for the minimum threshold, I did not even bother. In principle, I didn’t have a goal to designate it. For oil, for example, my forecast was generally perfect, I wrote that it would rise in price to 70, the price of oil is now 69.8, I think there’s nowhere to be more precise.
All my forecasts were in a rather narrow range from the values at that time, if we consider that this forecast for the whole year was the most accurate of all that was written there, including yours. Therefore, your claims are unfounded.
Your forecast was generally uncertain and most likely upwards, I’m generally silent on oil, you wrote that the price would fall) As for the balance, we still need a 60+ rate, but due to serious currency surpluses, they are simply not able to do this .I wrote that they would try to weaken the ruble, wasn't that what they did all year long, buying up excess foreign currency?

I wrote about your first two comments. First (!). In them, I certainly did not “distract” you from the topic :-). Perhaps all your forecasts were somewhere in a narrow range, but here they were for the dollar (namely, this is the forecast topic, and not oil or something else) “less than 70, with a gradual increase towards 70”.). And I don’t understand why this is “more accurate than mine”). It's no less vague than mine. I'm not making any claims, just observations. This time you wrote more specifically, which suits me more).

You, if possible, insert a quote and completely, otherwise it turns out the meaning is generally different, you just distort what I wrote. I wrote somewhere about the fact that the course will be 70? I have never made a single specific statement about the growth of the exchange rate to 70. I wrote that the exchange rate at the end of the year is no more than 70, making it clear to people that they do not really hope to return the money invested, how to convey this information to you ? And if you're talking about this:
“And based on the fact that we need to increase production, the state will help exports with all its might. For a perfect balance, we need a course of 65 now, with a gradual increase towards 70.” So he is still needed now, but it just doesn’t work out yet, and there is no statement that he will be 70 here either. The Ministry of Finance has already poured in 800+ billion to buy back the surplus, and I believe that this is not weak support, since the surplus is very large, it is not yet possible to pull it above 60. Although you say that we have a currency deficit)
I will repeat again! I have never written about the fact that the dollar in 2017 will grow strongly, especially in the region of 70, on the contrary, I answered that you will not see this figure very soon, for example, here is the answer:
“Marina, I apologize for the long answer, there was a lot of work. I think the rate 68 will not be until the end of 2017, and possibly only in 2018, so you just have to wait.”
Here I was asked specifically about the rate of 68. It was a year ago, that is, I let the person know that one should not hope that such a rate would not be in the near future, that is, there would be no weakening of the ruble, so it does not exist, about which 70 do you speak at all?
There are two options here, either you are trying to specifically “pin” me, or you are very inattentive when reading.
Konstantin, you better watch yourself, there is nothing at all from what you wrote that even closely reflects what is really happening now.

“Specially to splinter”, “they took care of themselves” .. Well, ok, I’ll keep silent further so as not to develop a senseless dispute.

Here you are really hooked on this, because there is nothing more to complain about at all. And you are trying to expose something completely different from what I had in mind, what is it called at all?
Let's go over everything else that I wrote a year ago.
1.Oil will gradually rise in price up to 70
2. Sanctions have not put pressure on the exchange rate for a long time, and their extension will not significantly affect the exchange rate.
3. I can say with full confidence that GDP in 2017 will not be in the red, perhaps the plus will not be significant, but you should definitely not expect a fall.
4. Do you remember what I told you that everything will change in foreign trade and the balance will increase by the end of the year and even be more than in 2015? But you flatly denied it! Well, here is the balance: November 2015 - 10107.7, November 2016 - 10405.7. December 2015- 12662.9, December 2016- 13217.7.
Well, this year the growth will be very significant compared to 2016, especially the first half of the year.

Where did I go wrong in the above? That's right - nowhere! And how could I, in your opinion, argue that the rate will be 70, if I myself wrote that there are a lot of deterrent factors and only at the state level can you somehow keep the rate and pull it up a little. Pulling it up a little does not mean that it will happen within a year or even two. I wrote that they would try not to let the exchange rate fall, as this would hit the economy, I wrote that they would gradually raise it to 65, and then to 70, but I didn’t say a word that they would do it in one year could write, as it may take a longer time and I understand this very well.
You just need to read carefully and everything will become clear immediately.

🙂 Come on.
1. I didn't say otherwise.
2. I didn't say otherwise either.
3. And here I did not state otherwise.
4. Of course I don’t remember, I have more than 11 thousand comments on the site! Why should I remember them all? I didn't "deny it categorically". you came up with). I specifically re-read all the comments, killing 10 minutes of time for this. No more, time is money. That is, and even here, where you write “categorically denied”, this is absolutely not the case.

And then twist again. Wow, because you are so calling for attentiveness ... I did not say that “you said that the course would be 70”. So you like to cling to words, but you read quite inattentively. I wrote that you stated that the rate would be NO MORE THAN 70, and turned out to be absolutely right, which is not at all surprising!) Just as if you wrote that it would be below 100 or above 40.

On this, the dispute on this topic is over, I will not publish more comments that pour from empty to empty - they are of no interest to anyone except you :-).

What is this currency forecast for 2018? This is not a forecast, but simply a set of different factors and those analysis without specifics. Maybe like this, maybe like that. You decide up or down.

Perhaps so, but the course will really depend on these factors, and how they will develop is difficult to predict, I don’t want to point my finger at the sky. I decided: the ruble is down, the currency is up (this is indicated in the conclusions), and I also set out my vision for each factor.

will grow in relation to 56-57?, that is, by the end of the year it will be higher - where you have levels 62-63.5 marked in blue? That is why the questions arise.

Firstly, the range of 10 rubles is for a moment equal to the range of fluctuations in Euros of 1000 points! Is the spread in the forecast too large?
You can give the same "prediction" as you give. Here is an example - “I predict a range for the ruble for 2018 of 50-60 rubles”

In general, I do not believe in growth in USD/RUB. Let's see how it will be in reality this year.
Thanks for the article.

Alexander, for a forecast for the whole year, provided that the previous years were not weakly so “stormy”, the range of 10 rubles is normal. Or do you think it's better to be like many "analysts" who try to give an accurate forecast, and then turn over 10 times a year?
As for the rest, I completely agree with you, I do not believe in a strong weakening of the ruble. And the fact that the article is not about anything, I also agree)

Hello Konstantin! I'm from Kazakhstan, your forecasts are always accurate, at least until today, it was so! we all often talk about the collapse of the $, is it possible? Since we don’t know in what currency to keep savings, so as not to lose ... if you answer I will be grateful ... Thank you ..

Hello Eileen. I have a bad idea of the situation in Kazakhstan, but I do not adhere to the theory of the collapse of the dollar. I once wrote on this subject separately:

Last year I read the article and comments by Mikhail and Konstantin with pleasure) Sometimes it happens that reading discussions is no less useful than reading articles. Thank you!
Kostantin, do not delete Michael's comments, please)
Mikhail, be more restrained (although I am for freedom of speech)), and we will have more interesting comments to read!)

I do not publish only what does not comply with the rules of commenting.

I think the forecast is correct, oil will be $ 40-44, the ruble will be hard + a mistake in the elections, President Putin will increase sanctions during the year, finish off the ruble. Only after the withdrawal of military equipment from Ukraine, the ruble will gradually strengthen

I don’t understand what is the point in forecasting 55-65
let's say a person has rubles and he wants to buy bucks so as not to fly in ... or turn in bucks and put rubles at interest ... or immediately rubles at interest ...
the essence is the same ... with the corridors written here, people who want to increase their capital will be at a loss.
after all, if the dollar rises in price, for example, then the current deposit rate in rubles will not return the amount in dollars to you ... and vice versa ...

Firstly, the forecast here is given for the whole year, and not for a short period, hence such a range! Secondly, no one here even thought to give advice on investments, there is only general information on the annual movement, and where and in what currency you invest is your own business.

Michael plus for the forecast. Thank you. Although everything is clear. It's a shame that with the increase in oil prices, the ruble did not react (remained the same), which means it fell. And God forbid, oil prices will also fall, then the ruble will also fall sharply ... ..So invest your savings in the yuan, or buy Chinese syndicates. We definitely won't lose here.

Thank you) The ruble actually did not fall! The ruble would have reacted with serious strengthening to the growth of oil, if the Ministry of Finance had not bought the currency in billions to support the exchange rate. If suddenly oil starts to fall sharply and the ruble weakens, then the Ministry of Finance will throw these purchased surpluses on the market and will not allow the ruble to fall sharply. The Ministry of Finance has serious sums at its disposal, they can change the value of currencies in one direction or another.

Good afternoon Konstantin, please comment on the situation with the ruble on 04/12/2018, the connection with the Syrian events, if converted into dollars or gold, your opinion is very important now ... Because there is a feeling of a critical situation!

Hello, Elena. The Syrian events, like the latest sanctions against the oligarchs, had a very negative impact on the ruble and the Russian economy in general. But personally, I do not yet see a supercritical situation, it is happening as I predicted: the ruble exchange rate has moved away from unreasonably high values and returned to its real range of 60-70. I did it, however, quite abruptly, due to the confluence of these two important fundamental factors, despite the oil price that has grown in price. As for the Syrian events, everything depends on what happens next. And it is difficult for me to assume this with high accuracy - I do not know what is in the head of the heads of state. Now the situation is really tense, and this is reflected in the exchange rate of the ruble and the price of oil.
If you look at the technical analysis, then a “triple bottom” pattern has formed on the weekly chart, and if it works, the rate will move higher to the level of about 66-67.

These sanctions are far from the most severe, so all these jumps are of a short-term nature with a gradual rollback to the region of 60, and possibly even lower. There are a whole bunch of factors that provide support for the ruble, so I would not hope for the rate of 66-67, as Konstantin writes. Of course, everything can change, but for now the reality is this.

Now with the ruble, what I described a year ago is happening. Everything is exactly as I wrote)

What's happening now:
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation allocates additional oil and gas revenues for the purchase of foreign currency, received due to higher oil prices compared to the budgeted one.
At the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance purchased foreign currency for 829 billion rubles. During 2018, the Ministry of Finance can purchase foreign currency for about 2 trillion rubles. with oil prices of $54–55 per barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimated at the end of December. At $60 per barrel, the volume of foreign currency purchases will amount to 2.8 trillion rubles. And at 75-80?
If not for the purchase of the Ministry of Finance, the rate would now be 50-55. And not sanctions, not everything that Konstantin likes to write about so much could not radically affect the weakening of the ruble.
It’s too early to talk about the 65-70 rate, I think that there won’t be such a rate this year, but 60-65 is quite real, although there is a high probability of going back - below 60, it all depends on the ratio of planned currency purchases and the cost of oil.

Hello dear analysts!
You, Konstantin and Mikhail, have an interesting pair of opinions that “make” this thread)))
In general, I am a person who is far from stock analysis, especially independent ones. So I'm looking for expert opinion.
The question of the price of the currency is selfishly relevant for me. Probably, now twist your finger at your temple, but, as a person of traditional views, a provincial without a commercial streak, in order to save money, she bought dollars and euros at the end of the year for a decent amount for me. I took dollars just below 58. The goal is to keep savings (well, at least I didn’t buy bitcoin at 12)))).
At the peak of the jump, dollars could not be sold, as she was leaving.
What do you think, is it worth selling now, tomorrow, for example, while it is slightly above 60?
I remember about my own responsibility when making a decision, but I need advice))) And what to store, maybe, really, in yuan?
Okhokhonyushkii ... Well, the country, as far as I can remember, is like a powder keg.

Hello, Elena. My opinion is not to sell. 🙂

Hello, Elena. It is difficult to advise something, I personally keep everything in rubles. The risk when buying dollars is very high, there are many factors that put pressure on the strengthening of the ruble. Now, for example, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran and the imposition of sanctions against this country will greatly affect the cost of oil, it will rise in price. And if the price of oil rises, then the flow of dollars into the country will increase accordingly. The Ministry of Finance is now buying up billions of foreign currency, but this does not allow the ruble to go below 60, if the Ministry of Finance reduces purchases of foreign currency, the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If, for example, oil rises in price to $ 85, then most likely the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If you are lucky and the value of the dollar remains at the same level, then you will receive about 5-7% per year, which in principle can be comparable to inflation for this year, at best, you will save your money and possibly earn some money. But there is also a high probability of losing, because if the dollar rolls back to 58, you will lose% of inflation, and if it is below 58, then the losses will be much more serious, and you will be constantly nervous. Putting rubles on% you will receive the same 7-8%, while you will feel more relaxed,% will compensate you for inflation and a little more will remain. In the current situation, the ruble will not go above 65, but it can easily roll back to 58, cardinal changes may occur during the year, but so far the picture is as follows.

Konstantin, especially for you, because for several years you stubbornly wrote that the NWF was about to run out, but this never happened. And here it turns out that not only has it not been empty, but it has grown by 23.2%, which is what I was talking about.
The National Welfare Fund (NWF) grew by 23.2% in June 2018 and amounted to 4 trillion 839.26 billion rubles, which is equivalent to $77.11 billion. The last time we had such an amount in $ was back in 2014. Do you still believe in the depletion of the NWF?

Http://forum..html
Everything is happening with the ruble as I wrote in this forecast: the first jump took place after the presidential elections, the second (now) occurs in connection with the strengthening of sanctions, and according to technical analysis, a very clear figure was obtained that predicts this jump (monthly chart, figure “ flag” - the screen was attached on the forum), which worked. There are fundamental reasons for growth, there are also technical ones, the current jump, according to the rules of technical analysis, should raise the dollar to the 69 area.

So far, my forecast is coming true more than ever (hello to Mikhail)).

Further, everything depends on the news background. It is likely that a certain correction will follow, a rollback of the course back. This will be a favorable moment for those who want to buy dollars, euros. After that - growth again, perhaps more systematic. By the end of the year, I expect the exchange rate to be at least around 70. Maybe more, maybe less. Everything depends on the current situation. For example, with the same sanctions: will there be a second, more “terrible” wave, which is expected in 90 days. How will the Central Bank behave, what will happen to oil, and so on.

“So far my prediction is coming true more than ever”
The key word here is never) As far as I remember, your predictions never came true, but here you might be lucky to guess, according to probability theory, sooner or later you would be right. At the beginning of the year, not you, not me, could not have known about future sanctions, in that situation, the exchange rate could not go above 65, if you pay attention, the growth was only due to sanctions. I also want to draw your attention to the fact that last year and this year I wrote that they would try to weaken the ruble, but on their own they would not be able to raise the exchange rate above 65 this year, sanctions helped)
Now it is very difficult to predict anything, it all depends on the actions of the Ministry of Finance, if they stop buying foreign currency for a long time, then we will see a serious rollback, if they continue to buy in full, then it will be more difficult for the ruble to strengthen. We must not forget that August is considered the most difficult month for the ruble, then the exchange rate stabilizes. The sanctions announced in the future are quite serious, but it is not known whether they will be applied in full or at all.
I must agree that today your forecast looks realistic, let's see what happens next.

Yes, right). Completely came true. And now it's especially true. Naturally, I assumed about sanctions: foreign policy does not change, which means that sanctions, as they have become tougher, will continue to be tougher.

But I am not writing this in order to show myself as a "cool analyst who can be unconditionally trusted and followed." Rather - just for you personally)).

No one doubted that the sanctions would be, the point is what kind of restrictions would be applied, and no one could know about this at that time. Sanctions could be both softer and tougher compared to those that were introduced, I meant this. I do not rule out that the rate may fly above 70, but there is also a high probability of a rollback (this has happened more than once). Let's see what happens next, 3 more months ahead.

Let's see, of course. So far, the average annual range is 60-70 with an upward trend (as I have written). At the same time, it may go beyond 70 by the end of the year or not by the end. The toughest sanctions so far are scheduled for November, but already in anticipation of them, the rate went up.

Nevertheless, there are more chances for the ruble to fall against Russia. The Americans have already started an open economic war here and can put pressure on the Saudis to make oil prices fall and start disconnecting from settlements in dollars and other obstacles, and even we must take into account the low competence of our leadership, I’m not saying that all sorts of provocations on the military fronts of Ukraine and Syria.

The Central Bank refused to buy foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance until the end of December, oil is under 80. The only counterweight to the strengthening of the ruble is future sanctions, but many doubt that the previously announced restrictions will be adopted, most likely they will be softer. We expect the ruble to strengthen in the near future.

The instability of the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies primarily affects ordinary Russians, in particular, prices for goods of various categories are rising. That is why many are interested in what will be the situation on the foreign exchange market in 2019, is it worth waiting for devaluation or is the economic situation in the Russian Federation stabilizing. Despite the fact that it is still too early to talk about the future, some experts still make predictions.

At the very beginning, it is worth understanding what the prices in the foreign exchange market depend on. It may seem surprising to many, but sometimes ordinary citizens influence the depreciation of the ruble, creating demand for dollars and euros.

Not trusting the national currency, the Russians create a rush demand for foreign money, resulting in a decrease in the value of the ruble.

Other factors also affect the weight of the currency:

GDP level. Most of the population does not trust domestic products, preferring imported goods. Low demand leads to the closure of factories, which in turn negatively affects the economic situation and the price of money in general.
The cost of oil. The higher the price of "black gold", the more stable the exchange rate. Currently, the Ministry of Finance is trying in every possible way to destroy this connection. While this has not been successful, nevertheless, the department is confident that the goal will be achieved soon. It is possible that next year the growth or, on the contrary, the fall in oil prices will in no way affect the exchange rate.
Outflow of capital abroad. The distrust of Russian businessmen in the ruble forces them to transfer funds into foreign currencies, thereby depreciating the Russian one.
Investments from abroad. The more partners from abroad are ready to invest in securities and assets of domestic companies, the more confident the national currency is.
Western sanctions. Despite the fact that the country is now slowly emerging from the crisis provoked by Western sanctions, it is too early to talk about stability.
Foreign policy relations of the Russian Federation. Russia's good neighborly relations with other states have a favorable effect on its economic situation.

Expert forecasts for the Russian currency

Today, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation assures that the foreign exchange market is in a state of stability. The factors listed above may slightly shake the situation, but there can be no talk of a collapse of the ruble in 2018.

The head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Maxim Oreshkin, says that the exchange rate in 2018-2020, despite the sanctions and the fall in oil prices, will be stable, no sharp fluctuations are expected. Not so long ago, he suggested that in the first quarter of 2018, the US dollar will cost a little less than 64 rubles, and towards the end of next year, the Russian currency will become a little cheaper - about 65.7 rubles will be asked for 1 dollar.

A slight collapse of the Russian currency is predicted for the period after the presidential elections - in the spring of 2018.

Experts from the large American banking holding Morgan and Stanley also appeared in the latest news with their predictions. Based on the experience of past years, they say that the ruble directly depends on the cost of oil. And they assume that in the first quarter of 2018 one US dollar will cost at least 69.3 rubles, in the second - 80, in the third - 76, in the fourth - 69.5.

Specialists of the Savings Bank of Russia made their presentation, in which they said that the exchange rate would be stable and remain at the current level - within 59 rubles per 1 US dollar. According to them, even in 2019 the dollar will not rise in price much - only by 50 kopecks.

Experts from the APECON economic forecasting agency also delivered their verdict on the future of the national currency. According to them, in 2018 the dollar will fall in price to 54.5 rubles, and towards the end of the year it will begin to strengthen and in 2019 it will reach 62 rubles.

Famous for his pessimistic forecasts about the economic future of the Russian Federation (which, fortunately, rarely come true), Mikhail Khazin also made a statement. According to the economist, one should not expect stability - the currency will either gain weight or, on the contrary, become cheaper. But one thing pleases - Mikhail Leonidovich does not predict the collapse of the Russian economy, since the country has great potential for developing its own capacity.

It is impossible to trust experts' forecasts 100%, since they are made in advance, and the economic situation can change in just a few days. However, one cannot but rejoice that the assumptions put forward are to a greater extent favorable. Despite the fact that the collapse of the ruble in 2018, according to experts, is not expected, time will tell how the situation will develop. In the meantime, in order to somehow maintain the course, reforms are needed in the country's financial sector and new sources of infusion of funds.