How to do a demographic analysis of a situation. Statistical methods of demographic analysis

The concept and general principles of demographic analysis, its stages and main methods. Types of sources of information about the population and demographic processes. Population censuses, basic principles of their conduction and information possibilities. Current vital records. The anamnestic method, selective sociological and demographic surveys, the study of public opinion as sources of demographic information.

Analysis of the dynamics of the population, the main indicators of the dynamics. Types of demographic structures. Age-sex pyramid.

General and private (age-specific) demographic coefficients: concept, types, methods of calculation.

Indicators of the population reproduction regime: types and methods of calculation, dimension and analytical capabilities.

Dynamics of indicators of demographic statistics for our country and individual regions and countries of the world.

BASIC CONCEPTS: principles of demographic analysis; primary and secondary demographic information; census; current accounting; lists; registers; qualifications; revisions; anamnestic method; indicators of population dynamics; general and particular demographic coefficients; reproduction mode; extended, narrowed and simple reproduction; demographic structures; age and sex pyramid of the population.

TOPIC 4. DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN RUSSIA: ORIGINS, CURRENT STATUS, WAYS OF OPTIMIZATION

The concept and essence of the demographic situation, its socio-economic and demographic conditionality. Demographic factors of socio-economic development (economic growth, business, labor market formation, poverty and income differentiation, etc.).

The current demographic situation in Russia, economically developed and developing countries of the world. Global demographic problems. Efforts of the international community and the UN to solve demographic problems.

Regional specifics of the demographic situation in Russia. Development trends and prospects for changes in the demographic situation in the regions. Regional features of demographic development. Migration processes in the regions. Regional types of geodemographic situation and trends in its change.

Features of the demographic situation in the Southern and North Caucasian territorial districts, in the Volgograd region (birth and death rates, migration flows, regional demographic policy).

BASIC CONCEPTS: demographic situation; depopulation; narrowed type of population reproduction; population quality; demographic factors of economic growth; regional differentiation; geodemographic situation; types of demographic situation in the regions.

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical Foundations of the Statistical Study of the Demographic Situation

1.1 The essence of the demographic situation

2 The system of indicators used to characterize the demographic situation

1.3 Methods of statistical study of the demographic situation

Chapter 2

1 Task 1

2 Task 2

3 Task 3

4 Task 4

Chapter 3

1 General characteristics of the demographic situation in Russia

3.2 Statistical analysis of the demographic situation

Conclusion

List of used sources

Applications

Introduction

The relevance of the research topic presented in this course work is due to the fact that the problems of demography in Russia are very acute. The demographic situation in modern Russia is distinguished by its complexity and tension. The processes of economic and socio-demographic development in the country proceed unevenly, with different intensity, and the indicators of population reproduction between the subjects of the Federation vary within fairly large limits.

Russia, of course, still has a number of demographic problems to solve in the coming years (such as increasing the retirement age, for example), but these problems are now facing almost every other country in Europe.

The purpose of the course work is to consolidate practical skills in the use of quantitative methods for analyzing the demographic situation of the Russian Federation in their qualitative certainty. Based on the goal of the study in the course work, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

1. study the theoretical foundations of the statistical study of the demographic situation

2. complete the calculation part in accordance with the topic of the study

Conduct an analysis of the demographic situation in Russia in 2012 using the grouping method.

The object is the demographic processes taking place on the territory of the Russian Federation.

The subject of the study is statistical methods for analyzing this phenomenon.

Theoretical basis of the research: scientific, works of scientists on theoretical, methodological and practical aspects of the demographic, socio-economic development of society, on a comprehensive study of the demographic situation in regions and municipalities of various levels. The author relied on the scientific provisions presented in the works of domestic scientists: N.T. Agafonova, E.B. Alaeva, A.A. Anokhin, D.I. Valenteya, A.G. Volkova, V.G. Glushkova, T.I. Zaslavskaya, I.V. Kantsebovskaya, M.A. Klupt, G.M. Lappo, V.M. Medkova, L.A. Merkusheva, V.V. Pokshishevsky, G.M. Fedorova, Yu.S. Frolova, L.P. Kharchenko, B.S. Khoreva, M.D. Sharygin and others.

The information base of the study was legal documents, statistical materials of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service, literary and cartographic sources, periodicals and Internet resources.

The study was conducted using the following approaches and methods: systemic, territorial and temporal approaches, comparative geographic and index methods, classification and typology methods, expert assessments, standardization of demographic coefficients and ranking, as well as quantitative statistical methods for processing initial information: studying the relationship of phenomena (correlation analysis and multiple regression procedure), data reduction (factor analysis) and data classification (cluster analysis).

Chapter 1. Theoretical Foundations of the Statistical Study of the Demographic Situation

1.1 The essence of the demographic situation

It should be noted that the state of the population reproduction regime directly depends on the level of socio-economic development of the country, as well as on the social structure of society. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that the current state of demographic processes will largely depend on the demographic events of the past.

The characterization of the demographic situation is not limited to a quantitative description and qualitative assessment of demographic processes. Changing the situation in the desired direction in accordance with the set goal, which is the topic of demographic policy, requires an understanding of the factors that gave rise to certain problems and their manageability. Considering these factors, it makes sense to conditionally divide them into two groups. The first group, which includes endogenous factors, is represented by the characteristics of the population itself: its sex and age structure and reproduction parameters. The second group, which includes exogenous factors, is represented by external, mainly socio-economic influences.

Thus, the demographic situation with its quantitative characteristics and qualitative assessment is, in fact, a comprehensive comprehensive idea of the population as a factor and criteria for the socio-economic development of a particular territory.

The composition of the population is a nomenclature, a list of elements that make up the population as a set of people. The demographic composition includes the division of the population into men and women. The population, differentiated by age, can be divided into groups. Grouping, performed on a qualitative basis, represents a classification. For example, depending on such a qualitative feature as ability to work, three groups of the population are distinguished: younger than able-bodied, able-bodied and those older than able-bodied.

The population can be divided into groups and quantitatively. Typically, the distribution of the population by sex and age is in one-year (for each individual year of age) and five-year age groups. The latter is given in standard groupings: 0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14, 15-19, etc. Such groupings are used by statistical authorities when developing population census data and current records. Sometimes ten-year groups are also used (0-9, 10-14, etc.).

Population structure is the ratio between homogeneous elements or numerically defined groups. The simplest is the gender structure: the percentage of men and women in the total population. There are also age, age-sex structures, distributions by residence time, etc. Structure, i.e. the distribution of the population by groups can be expressed not only as a percentage, but also in shares, ppm.

A generalizing characteristic of the age distribution of the population is its average age. It can be calculated for the entire population as a whole, for different age groups and for individual contingents. An example of the latter is the average age of the employed or economically active population.

Sex and age are the main demographic parameters of a person, and the age and sex structure, respectively, is one of the basic characteristics of the population. These data are in demand in almost all spheres of public life related to the life of people.

1.2 The system of indicators used to characterize the demographic situation

The classification of indicators characterizing the demographic situation is shown in Figure 1.

Fig.1. Classification of indicators characterizing the demographic situation

Figure 1 shows the variety of indicators characterizing the demographic situation. The calculation of these indicators is presented in table 1.

Table 1. Calculation of indicators characterizing the demographic situation

Indicators		Conventions
Population
Permanent population	PN = NN-VrP + VrO
Current population	NN \u003d PN-VrO + VrP	PN - permanent population; HH - actual population; VrO, Vrp - temporarily absent, present
Average annual population	Avg = (Chng1+Chng2)/2	Avn - average annual population; Chng1 - population at the beginning of the first year, second)
Share of region, county, world, country	FR/FR*100%	CH - the size of the region; CHSTR - the size of the country
Population Growth Rate	Tr \u003d Chn1 / Chn0 * 100%	Tr - growth rates; Chn1 - the population of the reporting period; Chn2 - population of the base period
Population Growth Rate	Tpr \u003d Tr-100%	Tpr - growth rate; Tr - growth rate
Average growth rate	Трр = ∑Тр/n	Трр - average growth rate; Tr - growth rate; N - number of years
Average population growth rate	Tprav = Tprav-100%	Тprsr - average growth rate; Tr - average growth rate
Absolute increase (decrease) in the population	Apr = Ch1 - Ch0	Apr - absolute growth; P1 - the population of the reporting year; N0 - population of the base year
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS AND COMPOSITION
Total population growth (absolute, relative)	Oprah = Epr + Ypr Opr = Oprah / AvrChN	Oprah - total absolute growth; Epr - natural increase; Ypres - immigration growth; Avgn - average annual population
Natural increase (absolute, relative)	Epra \u003d Chr-Chu Epro \u003d Epra / SrChN	Epra - absolute natural increase; Chr - the number of births; Chu - the number of deaths
INDICATORS OF POPULATION OF THE TERRITORY
population		L - population; Chn - population; Nn - number of settlements
Population density		Pl - population density; Chn - population; S - area of the territory
Service radius of settlements		R - radius; N - number of points
Urbanization rate	Y \u003d Chgorn / Chn	Y - coefficient of urbanization; H - the number of urban population; Chn - population

All of these indicators can be used to some extent to analyze the demographic situation. .

All these indicators can be used both to compare chronological (change in time) and regional series, to predict changes in the number and many other processes in the social, economic, political sphere of the country, region, region, district.

1.3 Methods of statistical study of the demographic situation

Demographers in the study of their subject use various methods: comparison, generalization, the method of putting forward hypotheses and their subsequent verification, methods of induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, extrapolation and modeling. The entire set of demography methods can be grouped according to the nature of research into three main groups: statistical, sociological and mathematical. .

In demography, the objects of observation are not individual events or people, but homogeneous aggregates of people and events combined into groups according to certain rules. These aggregates are called statistical facts, and demography is recognized to establish and measure all the existing relationships between statistical facts.

In this case, methods developed in statistics are used: methods of correlation analysis, factor analysis, the method of averages, tabular method, sampling and index methods, and others.

Today, demography also widely uses mathematical methods aimed at measuring some demographic characteristics from data on other characteristics. This is due to the fact that the processes of population reproduction are interconnected by both simple and rather complex quantitative relationships. Thanks to the use of mathematical methods, it is possible, on the basis of fragmentary and unrefined data, to obtain a fairly complete and correct opinion about the actual state of population reproduction.

Statistical methods for studying the demographic situation include general methods of statistics. Thus, the demographic situation can be described using:

Summary and grouping of statistical materials. A statistical summary is a scientifically organized processing of observation materials, which includes data grouping, calculation of performance indicators, and tabulation.

Statistical grouping is the division of the total population into homogeneous groups according to one or more essential features. The results of statistical observation grouping are presented in the form of statistical distribution series.

The statistical series of distribution is an ordered distribution of units of the studied population according to a varying attribute. It characterizes the state of the phenomenon under study, makes it possible to judge the homogeneity of the population, the boundaries of its change, and the patterns of development of the observed phenomenon. It is most convenient to analyze the distribution series using their graphical representation, which makes it possible to judge the shape of the distribution.

2. Statistical study of the relationship of socio-economic phenomena

3. Statistical indicators

Statistical research always involves the calculation and analysis of statistical indicators that are different in form and form of expression.

A statistical indicator is a quantitative characteristic of socio-economic phenomena and processes in their qualitative certainty in specific conditions of place and time

Statistical indicators can be expressed in the form of absolute, relative and average values.

The average value is a generalizing characteristic of the studied trait in the statistical population. It reflects the typical value of the attribute per population unit. There are power and structural averages. The power means include the arithmetic mean, the harmonic mean, the geometric mean, the mean square, and the structural mean includes the mode and the median.

Variation indicators allow us to estimate the magnitude of deviations of a trait from the average value.

4. Series of dynamics

The process of development, the movement of social phenomena in time is called dynamics. A series of dynamics represents the values of statistical indicators arranged in chronological order.

Analysis of the speed and intensity of the development of the phenomenon in time is carried out using indicators that are obtained as a result of comparing the levels with each other. These indicators include: absolute growth, growth rate, growth rate, absolute value of one percent growth. They are chain, basic and average.

One of the directions in the analysis of a series of dynamics is the study of the patterns of change in its levels over time. The trend of changing indicators of a series of dynamics is reflected by the trend line. The trend line allows you to build a forecast for the development of the phenomenon based on the available statistical data. The most effective method for identifying development trends is analytical alignment.

5. Economic indices

The index method is one of the most important statistical methods that have received the widest distribution in the practice of economic analysis. Indices are used in planning, management, macroeconomic analysis, and financial calculations.

The index is a relative value obtained by comparing statistical indicators, which consist of heterogeneous elements, the direct summation of which is impossible due to their incommensurability. When calculating the index, a comparison of at least two values is required. It is necessary to distinguish between the value of comparison and the base of comparison

Indices are grouped in different directions: coverage of elements (individual and general), base of comparison (basic and chain); type of weights (constant and variable weights), form of construction (aggregate and average); object of study (indices of prices, physical volume, cost, etc.).

A special place in statistics is occupied by the so-called indices of variable and fixed compositions used in the analysis of the dynamics of average indicators.

Thus, the analysis of the demographic situation in Russia in 2012, presented in Chapter 3 of this course work will be carried out using the grouping method.

Chapter 2. Settlement part

1 Task 1

Table 2.1 General coefficients of the demographic situation by regions of the Russian Federation, %

Birth rate	Death rate	marriage rate	Divorce rate	Share of women of childbearing age in the total resident population, %

The natural movement of the population is formed under the influence of births, deaths, marriages and divorces. If there is no data on the average annual population, the natural movement can be characterized using the vitality indicator (Pokrovsky coefficient):

Pzh \u003d N * 100 / M,

where N is the number of live births per year, M is the number of deaths per year. This ratio shows how many births occur on average for every 100 deaths. Table 2.2 presents the results of calculations.

Table 2.2 Calculation results (ranked series)

Fertility rate, Kr	Mortality rate, Kcm	Marriage rate, Kbr	Divorce coefficient, Kraz	Proportion of women of childbearing age, D15-49	Pokrovsky coefficient, Kr/Ksm	Fertility rate, Kr*1000/D15-49	The ratio of marriages and divorces, Kbr / Krazv	Ratio of eat movement, Cr-Ksm

The data in Table 2.2 are grouped according to the criterion “marriage and divorce ratio”. The construction of a ranked distribution series involves the arrangement of all variants of the series in ascending order of the studied feature (the ratio of marriages and divorces). Based on the analysis of this table, 5 groups were identified with an interval of 48.72, which was determined by the formula:

where, - respectively, the largest and smallest value of the trait (feed consumption per head) in the aggregate; n is the number of groups.

The average value of the series of the ratio of marriages and divorces was determined by the formula:

where is the average value of the phenomenon under study, is the i-th variant of the averaged feature, n is the number of options for the averaged feature.

The coefficient of variation is the relative measure of variation that is most commonly used in practical calculations. The set is considered homogeneous if the coefficient of variation does not exceed 33%. It is determined by the formula:

where is the average value of the phenomenon under study, is the standard deviation, which can be simple and weighted. The coefficient of variation is below 33%, therefore, the population is homogeneous, the value of the average value is typical.

The standard deviation formula is as follows:

= 63,63

where - the average selling price for the 4th quarter; - selling prices of each enterprise; n is the number of enterprises; - weight of the i-th option.

The interval distribution series is constructed in the form of a group table, in the predicate of which the number of units in each group (frequency) or their share in the total number of population units (frequency) is shown. The cumulative series is a series in which the accumulated frequencies are calculated, it shows how many units of the population have a feature value no greater than a given value, and is calculated by sequentially adding the frequencies of subsequent intervals to the frequency of the first interval. Table 2.3 shows the interval and cumulative series of the distribution of enterprises by the ratio of marriages and divorces.

Table 2.3. Interval and cumulative data distribution series

	Bottom line	Upper bound	Number of enterprises / frequency





Aggregate average

For a graphical representation of a ranked distribution series, it is necessary to build a scatter chart, where along the abscissa axis, points are placed at an equal distance from each other by the number of population units, and along the ordinate axis, an ordinate is restored from each point, corresponding in scale to the value of the attribute in the ranked series.

Graphs of the ranked and interval series are shown in Figures 1 and 2.

Rice. 1. Ranked series of the ratio of marriages and divorces

The resulting line, shown in Fig. 1, is called Galton's ogive. If the ogive tends to grow smoothly (without large jumps from one unit to another), then it is concluded that the set of changes in the value of the attribute is homogeneous and an equal interval can be used to convert the ranked series into an interval one. Otherwise, equal intervals cannot be used; you must perform manual grouping.

For a graphical representation of the interval distribution series, a histogram of frequencies is used. When constructing a histogram, equal segments are plotted on the abscissa axis, which, on the accepted scale, correspond to the size of the intervals of the series. On the segments, rectangles with a height on the scale of the y-axis represent the frequencies of the series (Fig. 2).

Rice. 2. Interval series of the ratio of marriages and divorces

The maximum value in this series = 351.28, the minimum = 107.69. Range of variation = 351.28-107.69 = 243.59. Mode is determined by the formula:

where x0 is the lower limit of the interval; h - interval value; f m - interval frequency; f m-1 frequency of the previous interval; f m+1 frequency of the next interval. Mode \u003d 156.41 + 48.72x (9-8 / 9-8 + 9-3) \u003d 163.37.

The median was determined by the formula:

where x0 is the lower limit of the interval; h - interval value; f m - interval frequency; f is the number of members of the series; ∫m-1 - the sum of the accumulated terms of the series preceding this one. Median \u003d 156.41 + 48.72x (12-8 / 3) \u003d 221.37

The assessment of the closeness of the relationship between the features is carried out using a linear correlation coefficient (r), which varies from -1 to 1. The closer the correlation coefficient modulo to unity, the stronger the relationship between the features. (Table 2.4)

Table 2.4. Relationship between features

The tightness of the links between the factor sign and the resultant ones is insignificant.

Table 2.5

	Bottom line	Upper bound	Number of enterprises / frequency	Average Pokrovsky Coefficient	Average fertility rate	Average Marriage to Divorce Ratio	Average motion eat rate



Aggregate average

Typological grouping solves the problem of identifying socio-economic types. When constructing a grouping of this type, the main attention should be paid to the identification of types and the choice of a grouping feature. At the same time, they proceed from the essence of the phenomenon under study.

2 Task 2

The initial data for solving the problem are presented in Table 2.6

Table 2.6. Initial data for solving the problem

The solution of the problem:

Population at the end of the year = 1005600+10500-17400+15682-12988 = 1001394 people

Average annual population = (1005600+1001394)/2 = 1003497 people

Natural motion coefficients:

A) marriage rate \u003d number of marriages * 1000 / average annual population \u003d 8902 * 1000 / 1003497 \u003d 8.87

B) divorce rate \u003d number of divorces * 1000 / average annual population \u003d 5304 * 1000 / 1003497 \u003d 5.29

C) ratio of marriages and divorces = number of marriages * 100 / number of divorces = 167.84

D) reproduction efficiency ratio = (number of births - number of deaths) * 100 / (number of births + number of deaths) = (10500-17400) / (10500 + 17400) = -24.73

E) migration coefficient = (number of arrivals - number of departures) * 1000 / (number of arrivals + number of departures) = 93.97

E) Approx. = 15682*1000/1003497 = 15.63

G) To vyb. = 12988*1000/1003497 = 12.94

H) coefficient of mechanical growth = (number of arrivals - number of departures) / average annual population = 2.68

I) coefficient of migration turnover = (15682 + 12988) / 1003497 = 28.57

Fertility rate = 10500/262000 = 0.04

3 Task 3

A functional relationship is such a relationship in which a certain value of a factor attribute corresponds to one and only one value of the effective attribute.

If a causal dependence does not appear in each individual case, but on average with a large number of observations, then such a relationship is called stochastic. A special case of a stochastic connection is a correlation, in which the change in the average value of the effective attribute is due to a change in factor signs.

Connections between phenomena and signs are classified according to the degree of tightness of the connection, direction and analytical expression. According to the degree of tightness, there are strong, moderate and weak ties. In the direction distinguish between direct and feedback. According to the analytical expression, linear and non-linear relationships are distinguished.

According to the initial data, it is necessary to determine the relationship between the factorial and effective features. Factor signs: Pokrovsky coefficient, fertility coefficient, ratio of marriages and divorces. Effective - coefficient of natural movement.

Let us estimate the relationship between the ratio of marriages and divorces and the coefficient of natural movement. The dependency graph is shown in Figure 3.

Rice. 3. Relationship between the ratio of marriages and divorces and the coefficient of natural movement

The correlation coefficient in this case is r=0.22, which indicates that the relationship is weak. Straight line equation: y \u003d 0.017x-14.6.

Figure 4 shows the relationship between the fertility rate and the natural movement of the population.

The correlation coefficient in this case is r=0.44, which indicates that the relationship is weak. Straight line equation: y \u003d 0.04x-25.13.

Rice. 4. Relationship between Vital Coefficient and Fertility Coefficient

Figure 5 shows the relationship between the Pokrovsky coefficient and the natural movement of the population.

Rice. 5. Relationship between the coefficient of natural movement and the Pokrovsky coefficient

The correlation coefficient in this case is r=0.96, which indicates that the relationship is strong. Straight line equation: y \u003d 35.85x-29.08.

2.4 Task 4

Table 2.6 presents the initial data for solving the problem.

Table 2.6. Initial data (fertility rate)


Coefficient value

Table 2.7 presents the results of smoothing. If the moving average step is an even number, then the resulting moving averages are centered. The centering operation consists in repeated sliding with a step equal to two. The number of levels of the smoothed series will be less by the step size of the moving average.

Table 2.7 Results of mechanical smoothing

Let's build the trend lines of the series in Figure 6.

The trend (time factor) is considered as the cumulative result of the action of many different causes, which are conditionally combined into one cause. The trend line can be convex, concave or straight. But it should not have a wave-like form, which is considered to be the result of a cyclical change in social and economic indicators.

Trend equation y t =a 0 +a 1 t

System of equations

Alignment in a straight line (definition of a trend line) has the expression:

t =a 0 +a 1 t

· t-symbol of time;

a 0 and a 1 are the parameters of the desired straight line, where a 0 shows the dynamics of changes, and a 1 denotes the average change over the entire population

The parameters of the straight line are found from the solution of the system of equations:

The system of equations is simplified if the values of t are chosen so that their sum equals Ut = 0, i.e., the time reference is moved to the middle of the period under consideration. If before the transfer of the reference point t = 1, 2, 3, 4…, then after the transfer:

if the number of levels in the series is odd t = -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4

if the number of levels in the series is even t = -7 -5 -3 -1 +1 +3 +5 +7

Thus, ∑t to an odd power will always be equal to zero.

In addition, the trend should not change direction for about 10 years. There are various ways to identify a trend, the choice of which is determined by the purpose of the study and the specifics of the phenomenon under study.

Fig.6. trend lines

The results of the analytical alignment of the birth rate are presented in Table 2.8.

Table 2.8 Analytical Alignment Results

The exponential trend line has the highest coefficient of determination, i.e. 71.68% of the change in the birth rate is associated with a change in time, in 28.32% with other factors.

Chapter 3

3.1 General characteristics of the demographic situation in Russia

Long-term and medium-term cycles can be traced most clearly in the development of the country's demographic situation. Long-term demographic cycles are considered by the American school as part of the stages of the "demographic transition", and by the French school as stages of the "demographic revolution". Medium-term cycles in the development of the demographic situation in Russia are caused by military disasters, cardinal changes in socio-economic life. Long-term and medium-term cycles in the development of the demographic situation in Russia have caused a modification of trends, forms and deviation from the trajectory of demographic development, traditional for European countries. Short-term cycles in the development of the demographic situation in Russia manifested themselves in the form of an increase in depopulation processes, a sharp decline in the birth rate, an abrupt change in the death rate of the working-age population, a decrease in the level of culture, health, average life expectancy, and a deterioration in the age and professional structure of the population. The state of the demographic situation in the country at different time intervals is determined by demographic cycles, which consist of demographic waves.

Demographic waves in our country cause surges in the birth rate, mortality, deformation of the sex and age structure, and form trends in the demographic situation. The length of the demographic wave is equal to the life of one generation. Demographic waves in real time slowly fade by the age of eighty-five. The general features of the demographic situation in Russia are characterized by a change in the length of the demographic wave. country until the 1990s. the demographic wave length was 26 years. Then there was an increase to 30 years, which reflects the extremely unfavorable demographic situation and the desire of young families to postpone the birth of children until a later date (35 years).

The demographic situation is influenced by factors that can be classified according to the degree of significance, scale and manageability. By the degree of influence, the factors can be ranked as follows: socio-economic - 1, migration - 2, historical - 3, urbanization - 4, cultural - ethnic - 5, national policy - 6, gender - 7, globalization - 8 (Fig. 3.1) . The factors with the greatest degree of manageability include: socio-economic, migration and national policy. The factors considered in the country are manifested both at the macro level and at the micro level of the economic system. The totality of the considered factors depends on the level of development and type of society, the features of the development of the social structure. These factors have a universal significance for influencing the demographic and economic situation in Russia. When studying trends in the development of the demographic situation in the country, these factors are taken into account as indicators of progress.

Rice. 3.1. Demographic factors

It is these factors that largely determine the demographic indicators and motives of the population's behavior. The share of influence of each factor on demographic processes in the formation of the overall demographic picture at a certain point in time may change. With the help of controlled factors that affect the demographic situation, it is possible to reduce the differentiation of depopulation processes in Russia.

The influence of each factor on the demographic situation has its own peculiarity. The factor of globalization in Russia increases the activity of economic agents, ensures the openness of the economic space, free movement of labor, forms a high degree of its mobility, and increases the competitiveness of the national economy. The gender factor affects the change in the structure of the labor force. The feminization of society affects the change in the role of women in society, the value and role of the institution of the family, leads to a reduction in the population, intensifying depopulation processes in the country. National policy, by creating social programs aimed at increasing the number and improving the quality of the labor force, affects the conditions and mechanism for the reproduction of the labor force. A policy aimed at increasing the birth rate at the national level stimulates the reproductive behavior of the population and requires significant government spending.

Rosstat on the site "Census 2010" posted preliminary data on the results of the All-Russian Population Census of 2010. According to these official figures, Russia's population was 142,905,200.

In January - April 2011, there was a decrease in the birth rate in Russia compared to the same period in 2010 (by 14.1%). Mortality also decreased by 20.6%.

For 2012:

1. 1,902,084 people were born (by 105,455 people or 5.9% more than in 2011);

2. 1,906,335 people died (by 19,385 people or 1.0% less than in 2011);

Decrease: 4,251 people (in 2011, a loss of 129,091 people);

Migration population growth: 294,930 people (320,100 in 2011).

Natural growth in 2012 was noted in 40 subjects of the federation (18 - republics) against 28 (16 - republics) in 2011.

For 2013:

1. 1,895,822 people were born (6,262 people less than in 2012);

2. 1,871,809 people died (34,526 people less than in 2012);

Growth: 24,013 people (in 2012, a decrease of 4,251 people);

Migration population growth: 295,858 people (in 2012 294,930).

Natural growth in 2013 was noted in 43 subjects of the federation (18 - republics) against 40 (18 - republics) in 2012.

Rice. 3.2. Changes in the demographic situation in Russia in 1950-2012

For January - July 2014 (including Crimea):

1. 1,119,700 people were born (18,800 people more than in January-July 2013);

2. 1,124,700 people died (8,900 people less than in January-July 2013);

Loss: 5,000 people (in January - July 2013, the loss was 32,700 people);

Natural growth in January - June 2014 was noted in 38 subjects of the federation (18 - republics) against 34 (18 - republics) in January - June 2013.

Meanwhile, the fact that in a country forced to struggle with colossal problems, there has been a natural demographic growth in 2013, does not mean that the situation here is always positive. In the 1990s, there was a catastrophic decline in the birth rate that accompanied a period of change in the political system. Therefore, when young people born between about 1993 and 2005 reach childbearing age, a marked decline in the total fertility rate should be expected, even if the total fertility rate continues to rise.

However, while it would be a big mistake to predict permanent demographic growth in Russia, it would also be wrong to expect the situation to worsen in the future. In the last seven years, demographic statistics for Russia have surpassed even the most optimistic forecasts. As Deputy Prime Minister Zhukov said at a meeting of the Council on Priority Projects, “over the years of the implementation of national projects, the birth rate has increased by 21%, and the death rate has decreased by almost 12%, life expectancy has increased to 69 years. For the first time, the population has been stabilized.” At the same time, he called "absolutely unfounded" the forecasts of American researchers who claim that in the coming years the number of Russians will decrease.

2 Statistical analysis of the demographic situation in Russia

Features of the population structure of modern Russia based on 2011 data:

The total number is 142.9 million people. This is the 8th place in the world after China (1325 million), India (1150 million), USA (304 million), Indonesia (229 million), Brazil (190 million), Pakistan (162 million) and Bangladesh (145 million). And according to the 2002 census, Russia ranked 7th.

Men - 66.2 million (46.3%), women - 76.7 million (53.7%).

There are 10.5 million (7.4%) more women. In 2002, men accounted for 46.6% and women 53.4%, a difference of 6.8% (8), i.e. across the country, the gap is widening.

In the Murmansk region, the percentage of men is higher than the average - 47.8%, but in 2002 it was 48.8%, i.e. and in our region the gap is widening.

Rice. 3.3

The consequence is problems in creating and maintaining full-fledged families.

Citizens - 105.3 million (73.3%), rural residents - 37.6 (26.3%), (9) Citizens are 67.7 million people (47%) more. In 2002 urban dwellers accounted for 73.3% and rural dwellers 26.7%, a difference of 42.6% (9). The gap is widening. Urbanization is a sign of an industrial society. The problem is in the manufacture and supply of Russian agricultural products.

Rice. 3.4

The majority of the population is Russian, although its share is constantly decreasing. 1970 - 107.7 million out of 130 million (82.8%); 1979 -113.5 million out of 137.4 million (82.6%) 1989 -119.9 million out of 147.0 million (81.5%); 2002 - 115.9 million out of 145.2 million (79.8%) (11) Consequence - change in the ethno-confessional composition of the Russian Federation

Rice. 3.5

According to the website Demografiya.ru, the average age of Russians is 38.9 years: for men - 36.2 years, for women - 41.2 years

The working-age population is just over 88 million, children under 16 are about 23 million, pensioners are about 31 million.

Rice. 3.6

Every fifth inhabitant (30.7 million, 21.6%) is of retirement age. (10)

One in eight is over 65 years old (about 13%), of which more than two thirds are women. It is known that according to international criteria, the population is considered old if the proportion of people aged 65 and over exceeds 7%.

The result is an indicator of the demographic burden of the Russian Federation: per 1,000 of the working-age population, up to 606 disabled people (of which 259 are children, 347 people of retirement age).

Thus, in Russia since 1989 the population has been declining, there are still more women than men, especially among older people, there are more city dwellers than rural residents, and the gap between them is widening, the Russian population is larger than representatives of other nationalities, but its the share of the total number is decreasing, young people under 18 years old make up a smaller part of the population. The aging of Russia is a problem without which the country has no future.

The main demographic processes in modern Russia:

a) Birth and death rates

Rice. 3.7

For the period from 1992 to 2011. in Russia, 27,564.1 thousand births were recorded, while the number of deaths was 40,674.5 thousand people.

These data show that the death rate in our country in the noted years exceeded the birth rate by 1.5 times.

The demographic crisis began in the early 1990s and continues to this day.

In 2010, 1,789,600 people were born in the Russian Federation, 2,031,000 died (! Of these, 13,400 children are under one year old). On average, one woman has from 0 to 2 children born.

The distribution of families with children by the number of children under 18 shows the prevalence of families with one child and a decrease in families with 3 or more children (See Appendix 3)

A change in value orientations is evidenced by a shift in the birth rate towards later ages. The average age of a mother at the birth of a child in 2009 reached 27.4 years. An aggravating factor in the demographic crisis is the high extramarital birth rate (almost a third of the total).

The statistics of Russian depopulation is complicated by mass abortions. Unfortunately, our country is a leader in terminating pregnancies. Only according to official data for the period from 1992 to 2010, before having time to be born, 40.5 million children died in Russia. (1)

An analysis of the causes of death of Russians leads to sad conclusions.

Among all the dead, almost 30% are people of working age (more than 560 thousand people a year), of which 80% are men, and this is not only demographic, but also social trouble.

The first place among the causes of death of the able-bodied population is occupied by causes associated with diseases of the circulatory system, external causes are in second place.

According to the level of mortality from external causes, suicides, transport injuries, murders, and alcohol poisoning stand out. They make up more than 50% of deaths from all external causes of death. (See appendix 4)

The average life expectancy of a Russian is 66 years: women - 73; men - 59, according to the geographical directory "About countries" (3).

In terms of life expectancy, Russia is in 162nd place out of 220 countries for which relevant data are available. In this list, our country is ahead not only of the USA, Belgium, Canada, Japan, but also of such developing countries as Morocco, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Colombia, Algeria, Uzbekistan, Nicaragua, Kyrgyzstan, etc.

b) Marriages and divorces

Over the past half century (from 1960 to 2010), the absolute number of marriages concluded annually has decreased from 1499.6 thousand to 1215 thousand, that is, by 284.5 thousand.

The marriage rate decreased by almost 1.5 times - from 12.5 to 8.5 marriages per 1,000 people.

The average age of marriage increased: for men by 2 years, for women - by 1.5 years and amounted to 25.8 years for grooms and 23.1 years for brides.

In 2010, more than half of the marriages concluded in this year broke up in Russia: 640 thousand divorces against 1.2 million marriages (a sad first place in the world, which Russia took away from the United States back in 1995)

Rice. 3.8

B) migration

In 2010, 33,577 people dropped out. 191,656 people arrived, i.e. more than 5 times more. But at the same time, the migration increase fully compensated for the numerical losses of the population and exceeded them by 4.2% only in 2009; in other years, fewer people moved to the Russian Federation than died (6, see Annexes 5, 7)

The recorded emigration (departure from the country) has been decreasing every year for two decades. Its structure is changing by country of intended residence. In the 1990s, the number of those who left for the CIS member countries exceeded the number of those who left for non-CIS countries by 3-5 times, in 2001-2005. their number was almost the same, since 2006 there are 2 times more emigrants to the CIS countries than to other foreign countries (6, see Appendix 6)

Emigration for Russia had very sad consequences. Over the period from 1992 to 2010, more than 3.6 million people left Russia. Basically, these were qualified specialists who replenished the economically active population, as well as the intellectual and reproductive potential of other countries. (See Appendix 5)

According to official data alone, from 1994 to 2009 almost 900,000 women left Russia. A significant part of them were criminally involved in the sex industry and other illegal activities under the pretext of looking for a well-paid job. It is possible that the real figure of women who left Russia is 1.5-2 times higher than the official one. According to indirect estimates, female emigration has led to direct reproductive losses in the form of non-birth of 833,000 children in the next five years.

Immigration (entry to Russia) mainly occurs at the expense of the inhabitants of the former USSR. According to the FMS of Russia, as of January 1, 2011, there were 50.3 thousand internally displaced persons and refugees in the country. More than 34% of them (17.3 thousand) were residents of Kazakhstan, 20% (9.9 thousand) - Georgia, 12% (6.2 thousand) - Uzbekistan, 5% (2.6 thousand) - Tajikistan. (6, see Appendix 8). Almost 10.5 thousand people (21%) moved inside Russia from regions with an unstable socio-political situation.

In 2010, the number of arrivals registered at the place of residence in the Russian Federation decreased. Thus, the migration growth of the population of Russia in 2010 decreased by 89.4 thousand people (36.1%).

In terms of the absolute volume of immigration, Russia ranks second in the world, second only to the United States, a state with a long tradition of immigration and a well-established system of assimilation of visitors.

The scale of migration is alarming due to its spontaneity: for the period 1992-2010. only 8.4 million immigrants fell into the field of view of official statistics.

At the same time, according to some estimates, the number of illegal immigrants staying on the territory of Russia reaches 15-18 million people, i.e., it is approximately 10.5-12.7% of the population.

Thus, the statistical data reflecting the course of demographic processes in the Russian Federation reveal the following demographic problems in Russia:

Immigration of forced migrants from the countries of the former USSR, while the natural loss is not replenished due to migration, but the problems associated with resettlement and providing jobs for immigrants are increasing

Growth in the number of incomplete families;

Therefore, we can conclude that in Russia the demographic crisis is not just continuing, but is actually turning into a process of depopulation - the extinction of the nation.

That is why Russia needs to create conditions for the stabilization and growth of its population, and most importantly, in a conscious and careful attitude of every Russian to his life and the lives of those around him. After all, each of us participates in the demographic processes that affect the size and reproduction of the population.

Conclusion

The purpose of the course work was a statistical and economic analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation.

The demographic situation (otherwise the situation) is the state of demographic processes, the composition and distribution of the population at a certain time in a certain territory. The concept is based on the Greek root: demos - people. The science of demography deals with the study of the demographic situation. The demographic situation within any territory consists of such demographic processes as fertility, mortality, marriage, termination of marriage.

The characteristics of the demographic situation include:

Assessment of the size, age and sex structure of the population, reproduction parameters;

Analysis of changes in demographic processes;

Forecasting trends and assessing demographic impacts.

The paper presents a classification of statistical indicators, which can be used to analyze the demographic situation. All of these indicators can be used to some extent to analyze the demographic situation.

With their help, a general picture of demographic development is given: the dynamics of the population, its components, the aging of the population, its sex, age and genetic structure, changes in the population of the territory, etc.

The total population of Russia is 142.9 million people. This is the 8th place in the world after China (1325 million), India (1150 million), USA (304 million), Indonesia (229 million), Brazil (190 million), Pakistan (162 million) and Bangladesh (145 million). And according to the 2002 census, Russia ranked 7th.

Men - 66.2 million (46.3%), women - 76.7 million (53.7%). There are 10.5 million (7.4%) more women. In 2002, men accounted for 46.6% and women 53.4%, a difference of 6.8%, i.e. across the country, the gap is widening.

Statistical data reflecting the course of demographic processes in the Russian Federation reveal the following demographic problems in Russia:

The birth rate is less than the death rate, which leads to the depopulation of the nation;

Raising the age of marriage;

An increase in the number of divorces and the birth of children by single mothers;

Emigration of qualified personnel and young women - expectant mothers;

The negative consequences of depopulation threaten the existence of society and the security of the state.

These consequences include:

Growth in the number of incomplete families;

No replacement of generations;

population decline;

Deformation of the sex and age structure

Aging society, increasing demographic burden on the able-bodied population;

Rising spending on pensions;

Decreased defense capability, deterioration of the country's labor potential;

Change in ethno-confessional composition

Therefore, we can conclude that in Russia the demographic crisis is not just continuing, but is actually turning into a process of depopulation - the extinction of the nation.

population demographic marriage

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2. Temporary instructions for the reflection in the forms of state statistical observation of indicators of industrial production (approved by the Decree of the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation of December 31, 2006 N 153)

3. Golub L.A. Socio-economic statistics: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M.: Humanit. ed. center VLADOS, 2009. - 272 p.

4. Efimova M.R., Petrova E.V., Rumyantsev V.N. General Theory of Statistics: Textbook. - 2nd ed., corrected. and additional - M.: INFRA-M, 2007. - 416 p.

5. Rudakova R.P., Bukin L.L., Gavrilov V.I. Statistics. 2nd ed. - St. Petersburg: Peter, 2007 - 288 p.: ill.

6. Salin V.N., Kudryashova S.I. System of National Accounts: Proc. allowance. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2006. - 272 p.

7. Salin V.N., Churilova E.Yu. A course in the theory of statistics for the training of specialists in the financial and economic profile: a textbook. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2007. - 480 p.: ill.

8. Social statistics: Textbook / Ed. Corresponding Member RAS I.I. Eliseeva. - 3rd ed., revised. and additional - M.: Finance and statistics, 2008. - 480 p.: ill.

9. Socio-economic statistics: Workshop: Proc. allowance / Ed. Salina V.N., Shpakovskoy E.P. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2006. - 192p.

10. Statistics: Proc. allowance / Bagat A.V., Konkina M.M., Simchera V.M. and etc.; Ed. V.M. Simchery. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2009. - 368 p.: ill.

11. Statistics: Proc. allowance / Kharchenko L.P., Ionin V.G., Glinsky V.V. and etc.; Ed. cand. economy sciences, prof. V.G. Ionina. - 3rd ed., revised. and additional - M.: INFRA-M, 2008. - 445 p.

12. Statistics: Textbook / ed. Eliseeva I.I. - M.: Higher education, 2007. - 566 p.

13. Theory of statistics: textbook / Shmoylova R.A., Minashkin V.G., Sadovnikova N.A., Shuvalova E.B.; ed. Shmoylova R.A. - 5th ed. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2007. - 656 p.: ill.

14. Federal Law of October 24, 2007 N 134-FZ "On the subsistence minimum in the Russian Federation" (as amended and supplemented on May 27, 2006, August 22, 2008)

15. Economics and statistics of firms: Textbook / V.E. Adamov, S.D. Ilyenkova, T.P. Sirotina, S.A. Smirnov; Ed. Dr. Econ. sciences, prof. S.D. Ilyenkova. -3rd ed., revised. and additional - M.: Finance and statistics, 2007. - 288 p.: ill.

16. Economic statistics. 2nd ed., additional: Textbook. / Ed. Yu.N. Ivanova. - M.: INFRA-M, 2009. - 480 p.

17. Economic statistics: Textbook. - 3rd ed., revised. and additional / Ed. prof. Ivanova Yu.N. - M.: INFRA-M, 2007. - 736 p.

18. Voloteev M.N. Economic indices in statistics// Economics and life-2014-№4-p. 8-11

19. Smirnov S.Yu. The impact of unemployment on the demographic growth in the country // Business World-2014-№2 - p. 17-19

Annex 1

Beloborodov I.I. Demographic situation in Russia in 1992-2010. Two decades of depopulation

Annex 2

Causes of death

Causes of death	Thousand Human	Per 100 thousand people	2010 in % to 2009

Total deaths
including from:
diseases of the circulatory system
neoplasms
external causes of death
of which from: all types of traffic accidents
accidental alcohol poisoning
suicide

diseases of the digestive system
respiratory diseases

For 2010 - according to monthly registration data (without taking into account the diagnoses of the final medical certificates), for 2009. - according to the annual development data.

Appendix 3

General characteristics of the migration situation in the Russian Federation


	per 10 thousand people	per 10 thousand people
Migration (total):
arrived
retired
migration growth
within Russia
arrived
retired
migration growth
International migration:
arrived
retired
migration growth

FGOU VPO "ACADEMY OF CIVIL PROTECTION EMERCOM OF RUSSIA"

LIST OF QUESTIONS

certification test in the discipline

"DEMOGRAPHY"

Speciality: "State and municipal administration"

KHIMKI - 2010

Analysis of trends in mortality.
Analysis of fertility trends.
Analysis of population migration.
modern urbanization.
Methods for predicting the size and structure of the population.
demographic policy.

Ministry of the Russian Federation

for civil defense, emergency situations

and disaster relief

FSEI HPE "ACADEMY OF CIVIL PROTECTION"

TRAINING PROGRAM

BY DISCIPLINE

"DEMOGRAPHY"

KHIMKI - 2006

I. GOAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL INSTRUCTIONS

The program for the discipline "Demography" was developed in strict accordance with the requirements of the State Standard of Higher Professional Education and is intended to train students in the specialty "State and Municipal Administration".

Teaching the discipline "Demography" aims to equip cadets with knowledge of the theoretical foundations of demography, the history of the formation and development of demography as an independent social science, the patterns of population reproduction and the use of human resources in emergency situations and, on this basis, teach them to use the methods of demographic analysis and demographic forecasting when solving specific tasks for state and municipal management in the field of protecting the population and maintaining the sustainable operation of national economy facilities.

As a result of studying the discipline, students should

Have an idea:

About the current demographic situation in the world;

About the development of the world population, its impact on the economy;

On the demographic policy of developed countries at the present stage;

On international cooperation in the field of demography.

Know:

Theoretical foundations and patterns of functioning of demographic processes;

Theoretical aspects of the study of population, the methodology of the study of population;

The structure and main trends in the development of demographic processes in the world and the Russian Federation at the present stage;

The system of patterns of population development and the needs of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia in human resources;

Factors influencing the development of demographic potential in order to strengthen the security of the Russian Federation;

Methods of regulation of natural and migration processes.

Be able to:

Own methods of analysis of demographic processes;

Use the methods of demographic coefficients and demographic maps to analyze demographic processes;

Apply methods for predicting the size and structure of the population for the demographic consequences of emergencies;

Systematize and summarize demographic information, prepare certificates and reviews on various issues of professional activity.

The study of the discipline "Demography" is an integral part of the comprehensive training of specialists in state and municipal government and is based on the knowledge gained in the study of the discipline "Economic Theory", "Mathematics", "Statistics" and serves as the basis for studying the disciplines "Theory of Management", "Territorial Organization population".

The study of the discipline contributes to the development of logical thinking among students, the formation of a scientific worldview, and provides the basis for substantiating and developing long-term plans for the development of the RSChS system.

The main forms of studying the discipline are lectures, seminars and independent work of students to study the topics covered.

The lectures aim to give a deep systematized knowledge of the course "Demography". During the lectures, problem situations are created, technical teaching aids and visual aids are widely used.

Seminars are held with the aim of discussing the main demographic problems, deepening and consolidating the knowledge gained in lectures and in the process of independent work on scientific and educational literature. Tasks for seminars are developed and issued to trainees before the first classes on the topic of the seminar.

During school hours, the most important issues are studied by students under the guidance of teachers. In the course of independent work under the guidance of a teacher, students get acquainted with the methodological instructions on the topic of classes, study the recommended literature.

In the course of studying the discipline, current monitoring of the progress and quality of student training is carried out. The purpose of current control is:

Assessment of the quality of assimilation of educational material by students;

Identification of difficulties in studying the discipline.

At the end of the study of the discipline in the 8th semester, an exam is held on all the problems contained in the program.

II. DISTRIBUTION OF LEARNING TIME BY SEMESTER, THEMES AND TYPES OF LEARNING

Rooms and name sections and topics	Total hours of training sessions	Including training sessions with a teacher	Of these, by type of training classes		Independent work of trainees
Rooms and name sections and topics	Total hours of training sessions	Including training sessions with a teacher	lectures	seminars	Independent work of trainees
1	2	3	4	5	6
7th semester
Section No. I. Introduction. Theoretical foundations of demography.	28	14	10	4	14
Topic number 1. Subject, method and content of the discipline "Demography".	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 2. The history of the formation and development of demographic science	8	4	2	2	4
Topic number 3. Patterns of population development.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 4. Population Data Source System.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 5. Population censuses. Publication of population data.	8	4	2	2	4
Section II. Analysis of demographic processes.	28	14	10	4	16
Topic number 6. The number and composition of the population.	4	2	2	-	4
Topic number 7. Methodological principles of demographic analysis.	8	4	2	2	4
Topic number 8. Analysis of trends in mortality.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 9. The movement of the family structure of the population and its projections.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 10. Analysis of fertility trends.	8	4	2	2	4

1	2	3	4	5	6
Section III. Population migration and urbanization.	34	16	10	6	16
Topic number 11. Questions of theory and classification of migration movement.	6	2	2	-	2
Total per semester	62	30	22	8	32
8 SEMESTER
Topic number 12. Analysis of population migration.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 13. Modern patterns of world migration processes.	8	4	2	2	4
Topic number 14. Modern Urbanization.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 15. Population reproduction methods of its analysis and modeling.	12	6	2	4	6
Section IV. Population policy.	70	36	22	14	34
Topic number 16. Theory and methods of demographic forecasting.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 17. Methods for predicting the number and stricture of the population.	8	4	2	2	4
Topic number 18. Interrelation of economic and demographic processes.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 19. The development of the world population, its impact on the economy.	8	4	2	2	4
Topic number 20. Demographic load of the active population.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 21. Demographic aspects of the formation of the labor market.	12	6	2	4	6
Topic number 22. Placement and mobility of the population and labor resources.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 23. The current demographic situation.	14	8	4	4	6
1	2	3	4	5	6
Topic number 24. demographic policy.	4	2	2	-	2
Topic number 25. World public thought about population.	8	4	2	2	4
Exam
Total per semester	98	50	30	20	48
Total by discipline	160	80	52	28	80

Section No. I. Introduction. Theoretical foundations of demography

Topic number 1. Subject, method and content of the discipline "Demography"

The main problems, structure and objectives of the discipline "Demography". The role of the demographic factor in socio-economic development.

Subject and object of demography, different approaches to its definition. Demography is the main component of the system of scientific knowledge about the population. Quantitative and qualitative characteristics of population reproduction. The family as an object of demography.

demographic methods. Natural, biological and socio-economic factors that determine demographic processes.

Types of population movement, basic concepts: population - population; natural reproduction of the population - reproduction of the population; cohorts - generation; demographic structures - demographic processes, etc.

Demography in the system of economic education, connection with statistics, sociology, social policy.

The value of demography for national economic practice in a market economy. The need for a regional approach in the study of demographic processes. Demographic factor in the functioning of RS ES.

Topic number 2. The history of the formation and development of demographic science

The formation of demography in the XVII - XIX centuries. The development of demography in Russia. Population statistics and demography. Theory of population and the formation of a system of demographic sciences.

The structure of demographic sciences. Theoretical demography is a section of demography that develops the basic methodological principles for the analysis of demographic processes and phenomena, patterns of population reproduction.

The history of demographic science is an organic part of the history of science in general and the history of the study of population in particular. Historical demography is a related area of historical and demographic sciences. The relationship of theoretical demography with the history of demography, historical demography, economic demography.

Methodology and private demographic sciences. Regional demographics. Applied demographic research.

military demographics. The role of the demographic factor in modern wars and military conflicts.

Topic number 3. Laws and patterns of population development

Socio-historical conditionality of demographic processes and phenomena. The laws of social development are the methodological basis of demographic processes. Economy and population. Population is the basis and subject of social production.

Historical features of population development. General and specific laws of development. The concept of the system of laws of population. The dependence of the manifestation of the laws of population on the specific historical type of society. The law of population of T. Malthus. The essence and content of the law of population K. Marx.

Patterns of natural reproduction of the population. Mortality and birth rate, historical types of population reproduction. Population aging.

Patterns of family and household development. Family and Society. The concept of "household".

Patterns of population settlement. Forms of population movement. The impact of military conflicts on population development. Population and global problems of our time.

Topic number 4. Population Data Source System

Goals and principles of accounting for demographic processes and phenomena. The main requirements for demographic information: reliability, systematic, detailed. Variety, quality and completeness. The main sources of population data are: population censuses; current record of demographic phenomena; sample and special demographic surveys; registers and various lists (accounts) of the population.

The main goals and principles of organizing the current accounting of the population.

Topic number 5. Population censuses. Publication of population data

Population censuses are one of the main sources of population data. The main differences between the population census and other forms of registration. Scientific principles for conducting censuses. Development of a unified program for conducting a population census throughout the country. The main differences between the census in our country and abroad. A census sheet is a document on the size and structure of the population and a carrier of information for entering into a computer. Microcensus 1994 in Russia. Upcoming population census in the Russian Federation.

Linking population data from censuses and current records.

Publication of demographic data (national and international).

Section II. Analysis of demographic processes

Topic number 6. Population size and composition

Population size, components of its change. Demographic balance equation. Population growth rates in the regions of the world and Russia.

The concept of population structure. Types of structures. Indicators of the structure of the population. Population structure by sex and age. Sex and age pyramids: types, construction and analysis. Trends in the change in the age and sex structure in the regions of the world, Russia. Structures of the population by marital and family status. Urban and rural population. ethnic structure. Socio-professional and educational structure.

The demographic structure of the army personnel. Change in the strength and vocational composition of the armed forces.

Topic number 7. Methodological principles of demographic analysis

General principles of demographic analysis. Statistical methods for the analysis of demographic processes. Mathematical methods. Mesh Lexis.

Index method in demography. demographic coefficients. The general concept of demographic coefficients. General vital and migration rates: birth rate; mortality rate; the rate of natural increase in the entire population. Age-specific demographic coefficients. Fertility rate of women. Infant mortality rate. standardized ratios.

The method of demographic tables. Fertility table. Tables of economic activity. Mortality table. Modal life expectancy and average life expectancy. Methods for constructing mortality tables. Analysis of indicators of mortality tables.

Topic number 8. Mortality trend analysis

Demographic concept of mortality. Mortality trends in Russia and countries of the world. Two types of mortality.

General and special indicators of mortality.

Mortality tables. Application of mortality tables in economic analysis. Social progress and change in the structure of mortality by cause of death. Factors and prospects for further growth in life expectancy. Development of the concepts of mortality in domestic and foreign demography. The theory of the epidemiological transition.

Topic number 9. The movement of the family structure of the population and its projections

The family as an object of demography. The demographic function of the family. Family as a unit of account. Demographic typology of families.

Dynamics of the family structure of the population. Dynamics of the number of families. Distribution of families by type and size. Marriage and family status. Composition of families and married couples. Childhood of families. The problem of interaction between generations in the family.

High mobility of the population and its impact on family formation. Family education. Marriage as a demographic process. Marriage of real generations. Marriage stability. The dependence of the demographic behavior of the younger generation on the demographic attitudes of parents.

Demographic factors and consequences of divorce. Remarriages. Relationship between marital status and mortality.

Demographic development of the family. The unity of the components of population reproduction: nuptiality, termination of marriage, fertility and mortality. Marriage life expectancy and its demographic factors. Marriage termination table. Fragmentation of families. Separation table for young families.

Population mobility and its impact on demographic events – marriages and divorces, births, population aging and deaths.

Characteristic features and characteristics of the family of military personnel. Demographic analysis of marriage and family development.

Topic number 10. Analysis of fertility trends

Fertility and fertility. natural fertility. General and special fertility rates. Indices E. Cole, GMER Borisov. Modern trends and problems of fertility. Development of fertility concepts. Models of fertility (Bongarts, Cole-Trussell, Easterlin, etc.) Microeconomic and macroeconomic approaches to the study of fertility. Application of birth tables in demographic analysis.

Section III. Population migration and urbanization

Topic number 11. Questions of the theory and classification of migration

movements

The concept of migration movement. laws of migration. Modern classification of migration processes. The concept of migration transition. Migration and economic development. External and internal migration.

Topic number 12. Analysis of population migration

Demographic analysis and population migration forecast. System of indicators of the volume and intensity of migration. Direct and indirect methods of accounting for migration processes. Features of accounting for international migration of the population. Migration table.

Topic number 13. Modern patterns of world migration

Processes

The scale of modern world migrations. New centers of attraction and expulsion of migrants. Qualitative changes in migration flows. Forced migration. Illegal immigration.

Migration policy in modern Russia, regional specificity. Integration of Russia through migration into the world economy.

Topic number 14. Modern urbanization

The concept of urbanization. Dynamics of the urban population. factors of urbanization. Features of urbanization in various regions of the world, including Russia. Consequences of "over-urbanization" and economic development. Features of the functioning of the RSChS in the conditions of urbanization.

Topic number 15. Reproduction of the population methods of its analysis

And simulation

General concept of population reproduction.

The structure of the process of population reproduction: fertility, mortality. Migration, marriage, divorce.

Characteristics of the real generation. Quantitative and qualitative degree of generational turnover. The concept of the mode of reproduction of the population as a whole. Population reproduction indicators. Parameters that determine the course of population reproduction. Types of reproduction of the population as a whole; extended, narrowed and simple. Models of stationary, stable and quasi-stable population.

Gross - and net - reproduction rates.

Migration and population reproduction. The use of population models in demographic and economic research.

Section IV. Population policy

Topic number 16. Theory and methods of demographic forecasting

Methodological bases and principles of demographic forecasting. Initial parameters of the demographic forecast. Kinds and types of demographic forecasts. The problem of forecast accuracy. History of demographic projections. Some results of forecasts of the population of the world and Russia. Tasks and significance of perspective calculations of the population. Two groups of forecasts: forecasts of the population of the country as a whole and forecasts of the population of individual regions of the country. Forecasts are short-term, medium-term and long-term. Accounting for the impact of migration in prospective calculations.

Topic number 17. Methods for predicting abundance and stricture

Population

Cycle: natural movement - economy - migration - natural movement. Population doubling method. Methods of extrapolation and estimates for the future of the total population. The method of shifting in calculations for the perspective of the structure of the population.

Methods and principles for developing demographic forecast scenarios.

Topic number 18. The relationship between economic and demographic

Processes

Assessment of the intensity and structural factors of demographic and economic development. Demographic structures and their relationship with economic development. Economic-damographic modeling.

Distribution of people by type of demographic behavior. Economic structure: by branches of employment; division of income groups; by the nature of the personal activity. The division of people into those employed primarily in mental and predominantly in physical labor.

Topic number 19. The development of the world population, its impact on the economy

Population in global models of development. Dynamics of the world population, its regional features. Population explosion. Population growth and economic development. demographic crisis. Population aging and its economic consequences.

Topic number 20. Demographic load of the active population

The role of the demographic factor in the socio-economic life of society. Active population and population aging. The demographic forecast and demographic policy are two components of managing the demographic load of the active population.

The quality of the population as the most important component of the development of the economy and the quality of life.

Methods of economic and demographic forecast of the active population. Table of economic activity - a theoretical model of the relationship between groups of employed and unemployed population. demographic passport. demographic expertise. Life potential, basic concepts and calculation methods. Full life potential and partial potential for a given age.

A Study of the "Economic Bibliography of the Average Man". Certain expenses for the maintenance of people of different ages. Working life tables, average life expectancy at working age. Analysis of the "revenue-expenditure ratio" and "cost of living" of different generations.

Factors determining the occurrence of relative overpopulation. Dependence of marriage and birth rate on ups and downs and crises of production. Unemployment. Industrial reserve army of labor. Formation of the world labor market.

Demographic forecast of the needs of the armed forces in human resources. The need to train military-trained reserves.

Topic number 21. Demographic aspects of the formation of the labor market

Demographic characteristics of the main elements of labor market development: labor force, labor resources, working-age population. Labor potential of the generation. Demographic aspects of supply and demand in the labor market.

The impact of migration on the formation and development of national, regional, international and global labor markets. Russia's entry into the world labor market.

Topic number 22. Accommodation and mobility of the population and labor

Resources

Increasing the level of socio-economic development of the leading countries of the world and changing the location and mobility of the population and labor resources. Three forms of population movement: natural (processes of fertility, mortality, divorce); social and migratory.

Topic number 23. The current demographic situation

Modern socio-economic development and demographic processes in the developed countries of the world. Projections of world population growth. Dynamics of the world population, its regional features.

Trends in mortality, marriage, fertility, population reproduction, migration in the modern world. Development of international cooperation in the field of population through the UN. Demographic characteristics of the main elements of labor market development: labor force, labor resources, working-age population. Demographic crisis: depopulation, population aging; their economic consequences.

Topic number 24. Demographic policy

Demographic policy: definition, history, methods, effectiveness. Family policy. Regional demographic policy. The need for demographic expertise in the implementation of socio-economic development programs.

Demographic policy of Russia at the present stage. Family policy. Regional demographic policy. International cooperation of Russia with the UN in the field of demography. The main directions of regulation of demographic processes in Russia in a transitional economy.

Topic number 25. World public thought on population

The main directions of development of foreign demographic thought. Classification of modern demographic theories. The economic and demographic direction in demography (A. Sauvy, T. Schultz, G. Becker, R. Easterlin and others). A systematic approach to the study of population (D.I. Valentey, B.Ts. Urlanis, A.Ya. Boyarsky, A.Ya. Kvasha and others). Demographic processes (birth rate, migration) as an investment in human capital.

Reproduction of the population - the process of generational change as a result of the natural movement of the population. To characterize the size and reproduction of the population, many demographic indicators are used, but the main ones are birth rates, mortality rates (the number of births or deaths in 1 year per 1 thousand inhabitants) and natural increase. Their value is expressed in% (ppm), i.e. in thousandths.

The demographic structure determines the ratio of the population at different ages. An analysis of population changes in different age groups makes it possible to describe the dynamics of changes in the age and sex group, so that population growth in the next 45 years will actually take place entirely in economically less developed regions. Despite higher death rates in all age groups, the population of poor countries is growing faster because they have significantly higher birth rates. Currently, the average woman in poor countries gives birth to almost twice as many children (2.9 children) as those in wealthy countries (1.6 children). Population size and the rate of its growth differed markedly by regions of the world.

According to UN experts, in 2000 the world population was 791 million people, of which 63.5% lived in Asia, 20.6% in Europe, 13.4% in Africa, 2.0% in Latin America, 0 .3% in North America and Oceania. By 2009, the world's population had more than doubled, with Africa (by 25%) and Asia (by 90%) the least. The fastest growing population in North America. Faster than the population of the world as a whole, the population of Latin America, Oceania and Europe increased. The proportion of the population of Europe has reached the highest value - almost 25% of the world's population. The share of the population of Africa and Asia, on the contrary, decreased (to 57.4% and 8.1%, respectively).

By 2010, the world population had increased by 4.2 times compared to 2005. Most of all, during this period, the population of Latin America (8.0 times), Africa (7.7 times) and Oceania (6.1 times) increased. Europe's population increased least of all (1.8 times), as a result of which its share in the world population decreased to 10.7%. The share of Asia increased to 60.4% (note that this is, nevertheless, lower than in 1750), Africa - up to 14.8%, Latin America - up to 8.6%, North America - up to 5.0 %, Oceania - up to 0.5% of the total world population. According to the average variant of the 2010 revision forecast, by the middle of this century the world's population will increase by 1.3 times. The population of Africa will grow the fastest, increasing by 2.1 times and in 2050 it will be almost 24% of the total population of the world. Population growth in other regions of the world will be more moderate, with only Europe having a smaller population in 2050 than in 2010. Population decline in Europe will begin in the 2020s, and in the middle of the century the value of the growth rate may drop to -0.2% per year. Already since the beginning of the 2000s, the value of the coefficient of natural increase has become negative, and the remaining overall growth is provided by migration growth. The population growth rate of Asia and Latin America will approach zero.

The population of Oceania and North America will grow more rapidly in the 2030s and 2040s, partly due to a rather high migration increase. The overall population growth rate in North America will decrease in 2045-2050 to 0.5% per year, and the rate of natural increase to 0.2%, in Oceania - to 0.7% and 0.6% per year, respectively. In addition, migration growth, in addition to a direct impact on the overall population growth, also has an indirect effect on it due to the rejuvenation of the age structure and the increase in the birth rate (if immigrants from countries with higher birth rates predominate among migrants). Africa's population growth, despite the decline, will remain very high. According to the average forecast option, the value of the coefficient of natural increase in this region will exceed 2% per year until 2025 and will not fall below 1.5% per year by the middle of the century. Half of the world's population growth will come from just nine countries. We list them in descending order of expected contributions: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, USA, Ethiopia and China. The only wealthy state on the list is the US, where about a third of the population growth comes from high levels of immigration.

The population of fifty countries, mostly economically developed, on the contrary, will decrease by 2050. It is expected that the population of Germany will decrease from 83 to 79 million people, Italy - from 58 to 51 million, Japan - from 128 to 112 million, Russia - from 143 to 112 million.

Subsequently, projections that there will be billions more people in the developing world and an increase in the number of old people in all other countries, combined with hopes for economic growth, especially for the world's poor, raise concerns in some quarters about the ability of our Earth to endure " human load" now and in the future, the population of Russia will be slightly less than that of Japan. The countries of the world can be divided into 3 groups according to population density:

A very high population density for a single country can, obviously, be considered an indicator of over 200 people per 1 sq. km. For example - Belgium, the Netherlands, Great Britain, Israel, Lebanon, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Republic of Korea, Rwanda, El Salvador. The average density can be considered an indicator close to the world average (40 people per 1 km2). For example, Ireland, Iraq, Cambodia, Malaysia, Morocco, Tunisia, Mexico, Ecuador. And, finally, the indicator of the lowest density can be attributed to 2 people per 1 sq. km. This group includes Mongolia, Libya, Mauritania, Namibia, Guyana, Australia and Greenland (0.02 people/km2). There are different forecasts for the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia, both Russian and foreign, they are usually made in several versions, but even if we take only optimistic scenarios, they all assume a fairly moderate increase in the birth rate until 2025. And the most optimistic expectations do not imply reaching the current level The birth rate in the United States is the only developed country where it is close to the level of simple replacement of generations.

This also applies to the goal set in the recently adopted Demographic Policy Concept, where it is not supposed to achieve the American level. In order for natural growth to turn from negative to positive, or at least to zero, even the American level would not be enough now, given the peculiarities of the age structure of the Russian population.

But there is no full confidence that the most optimistic scenarios of birth rate growth will be realized. Some additional danger, understatement, is fraught with the official focus on reaching Russia's population of 142 million people in 2015 and 145 million people in 2025. It brings reassurance where it would be better not to lose vigilance. It is possible to achieve the set goals, but only with large volumes of immigration. demographic population structural

Forecasts that are made even with the most optimistic assumptions about births and deaths show this clearly.

To stabilize the population, it is necessary to fully compensate for its natural decline: for this, say, in 2011-2015. almost 1 million immigrants a year will have to be received.

There are more moderate forecasts that also take into account the possibility of reducing mortality and increasing the birth rate, but still do not guarantee full compensation for the natural decline in the population, and hence its ongoing decline.

They proceed, in particular, from the fact that the labor shortage will be covered by about half through temporary migration, guest workers who are not immigrants in the strict sense of the word. But even a partial compensation for natural loss, which, after a period of reduction, will begin to grow again, implies fairly large volumes of stationary immigration.

An analysis of population changes in different age groups makes it possible to describe the dynamics of changes in the age and sex group, so that population growth in the next 45 years will actually take place entirely in economically less developed regions.

Despite higher death rates across all age groups, populations in poor countries are growing faster because they have significantly higher birth rates.

2.2 Basic demographic indicators.

All indicators can be divided into two main types: absolute and relative. Absolute indicators (or values) are simply the sums of demographic events: (phenomena) at a point in time (or in a time interval, most often for a year). These include, for example, the population on a certain date, the number of births, deaths, etc. for a year, month, several years, etc. Absolute indicators are not informative in themselves, they are usually used in analytical work as initial data for calculation of relative indicators. For comparative analysis, only relative indicators are used. They are called relative because they always represent a fraction, a ratio to the population that produces them.

The first most general quantitative measure of population is the size, determined by census, current accounting, and in the presence of certain research conditions, by mathematical modeling, the simplest types of which are prospective and retrospective extrapolation.

The essential characteristic of the population is the ratio of its size and the size of the territory in which it lives. This ratio is measured by the population density index, which is characterized by the number of inhabitants per a certain area, for example, per square kilometer of their territory. At the same time, it is important to know not only the total population density, but also in the context of regions of various scales, depending on the objectives of the study.

Russia, especially its eastern and northern regions, belongs to the territories with the lowest population density. By dividing the population of Russia of 141 million people (at the beginning of 2010) by the area of the territory of Russia (17075.4 sq. km), we get the population density at the indicated point in time - 8.3 people per 1 sq. km. At the present stage, this causes many vulnerable circumstances that make its geopolitical, military, economic and other position very fragile. Similar conclusions can be drawn regarding the potential of its sparsely populated territories (municipalities).

The population is differentiated into constituent elements according to the most important criteria for social management:

Age and age composition - the ratio of the number of individual age groups;

Gender and gender composition - the ratio of the number of men and women in the population as a whole and by different ages;

Marital status and family composition - distribution of the population by family status (married, never married, divorced, widowed);

level of education, the share of those with one or another educational qualification;

Social status and social composition - distribution of the population by income sources, social groups and subgroups;

Ethnic - the distribution of the population by nationality, as well as by native language, spoken language;

Economic - the distribution of the population on the employed by individual industries, engaged in mental and physical labor, unemployed, etc.

Of particular, basic importance are indicators of the age-sex structure involved in the enrichment of the cognitive potential of all other demostatic indicators. Different gender and age groups play different roles both in the reproduction of the population and in its functioning, including its economic, political and social activity.

Gender is a sign that remains unchanged throughout a person's life, while age inevitably and evenly increases.

Age is the period from the birth of a person to one or another counted event of his life. The extreme points on the line of a person's life are birth and death, and between them lies a sequence of demographic events.

Economic demographic indicators are especially important for characterizing the demographic subsystem of a municipality. The most important indicators of economic demography are indicators characterizing labor resources. First of all, the working-age population, the working-age population, dependents and the demographic burden on the able-bodied and working population.

Working-age population characterizes that part of the entire population that is within the age limits of labor activity established by law in a particular country. In our country, such age limits are defined: for men 16-59 years old, for women 16-54 years old.

Working-age population represents that part of the population of working age who, by their mental and physical qualities, has the ability to work.

Number and proportion of dependents characterizes the entire population unable to work due to age or health status.

Indicator of the demographic burden on the able-bodied population is determined by the ratio of able and incapable of working population and dependents.

From the ratio of the first and second indicators, an indicator of the state of health of the population of working age is formed.

A comparative analysis of these indicators in terms of the age and sex structure of the population and other characteristics of its demographic composition, supplemented by an analysis of the time series of based and derived purely demographic indicators, forms the demo-economic basis of many areas of economic policy and practice.

All these indicators have, as a rule, a quantitative expression, which are based on measurements of demographic phenomena and processes.

All demographic coefficients, regardless of their type, are the ratio of certain values to the size of the population or any part of it, to the size of a cohort, or to the total number of demographic events. They are calculated in order to make these values independent of the size of the population or other group taken as the basis of comparison, and thereby bring them to a comparable form.

According to the classification of indicators adopted in statistics, demographic coefficients are relative values and are calculated according to the rules adopted for them: in the case of comparing opposite values, it is necessary that they refer to the same period of time, to the population of the same territory, to the same and the same groups of the population, moreover, singled out on the same grounds. When data are obtained from different sources, it is important to compare not only in time and territory, but also in relation to the methodology for determining the category of population covered by each source, the content of the accepted groupings, etc.

The ways of expressing demographic coefficients differ depending on the possible range of values, each of them, on the required accuracy, logic of description and analysis. They are usually expressed in units, percentages (%) or ppm (‰), i.e. per thousand people (1 ppm equals 0.1 percent or 1% = 10)

Population figures.

Population- the indicator is momentary, that is, it always refers to the exact moment in time. Population loss is called depopulation.

Based on population data for a number of years, it is possible to calculate absolute growth, growth rates and average population.

Population S:

1) - data at the beginning and end of the year.

2) at equal intervals (based on quarterly data) - this formula is the chronological average.

3) for unequal intervals - this is the weighted average formula.

Indicators of the natural movement of the population of the Russian Federation.

The natural movement of the population.

This is the change in population due to the processes of birth and death.

Natural increase: = P - Y,

Where P is the number of births; Y is the number of deaths.

The simplest indicators of the natural movement of the population - the general coefficients - are so called because when calculating the number of demographic events: births, deaths, etc., they are correlated with the total population.

Table 1 (see Appendix 1)

Index		Calculation method (%)
1. Total fertility rate (n)	Number of live births (N) per 1000 people population on average per year (‰)
2. Crude death rate (m)	The number of deaths (M) per 1000 people. population on average per year (‰)
3. Coefficient of natural increase (Kn-m)	Natural increase per 1000 people. population on average per year
4. Population turnover ratio (Kn+m)	The number of births and deaths per 1000 people. population on average per year
5. Coefficient of economy of reproduction (Ke)	The share of natural increase in the total turnover of the population	Ke \u003d (n - m) / (n + m)

Total Fertility Rate:

Today, the main factor on which the demographic future of our country depends entirely is the birth rate.

Crude death rate:

General coefficient of natural increase:

The total vital rates are calculated with a standard accuracy of tenths of a per mille.

Indicators of mechanical movement. Migration.

Mechanical change - a change in the population due to the territorial movement of people, i.e. through migrations.

Migration is the mechanical movement of a population within a country or between countries.

P - B, where P - the number of arrivals in the given territory, B - the number of those who left the given territory.

Table 2 (see Appendix 2)

Index		Calculation method
1. Migration coefficient (Kv)	Balance of migration per 1000 people population of the i-th group on average per year, V+ - V- (V+ is the number of arrivals; V- is the number of departures)
2. Arrival coefficient (Кv+)	Number of arrivals per 1000 people population on average per year
3. Retirement rate (Kv-)	Number of dropouts per 1000 people population on average per year
4. Coefficient of survival of new settlers (Kn)	Share of new settlers. remaining for permanent residence in the area (), in the total number of arrivals in the area for the study period (one, two, three, etc.) (),%
5. Coefficient of population mobility (Kn-1)	The share of new settlers who did not take root () in the total number of those who arrived in this area,%

Total population growth:

where is the natural population growth; - migratory (mechanical) population growth.

Mechanical gain coefficient:

where is the average annual population.

Overall growth rate:

Advantages of common coefficients:

1) eliminate differences in population sizes (since they are calculated per 1000 inhabitants) and allow comparing the levels of demographic processes of territories with different populations;

2) one number characterizes the state of a complex demographic phenomenon or process, i.e., they have a generalizing character;

3) for their calculation in official statistical publications almost always there are initial data;

4) are easily understood and often used in the media.

General coefficients have a drawback, stemming from their very nature, which consists in the non-uniform structure of their denominator. When using general coefficients to study the dynamics of demographic processes, it remains unknown - due to what factors the value of the coefficient has changed: either due to a change in the process under study, or due to the structure of the population.

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