Suggestions for improving real estate valuation. Thesis: Real Estate Valuation

As a manuscript Akulova Evgenia Olegovna IMPROVING THE METHODS OF ANALYSIS OF THE MOST EFFECTIVE USE OF REAL ESTATE FOR THE PURPOSES OF VALUATION 08.00.10 – Finance, monetary circulation and credit Abstract of the dissertation for the degree of candidate of economic sciences Moscow 2015 "Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation" Supervisor Candidate of Economic Sciences, Professor Elena Nikolaevna Ivanova Official opponents Sergei Gennadievich Sternik Doctor of Economics, Professor, Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation, Professor of the Department of Real Estate Management and problems of land use Khloptsov Dmitry Mikhailovich Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education "National Research Tomsk State University", Head of the Department of General and Applied Economics of Economics kultet Leading organization FGBOU HPE "Moscow State University of Civil Engineering" The defense will take place on April 16, 2015 at 12:00 pm at a meeting of the dissertation council D 505.001.02 on the basis of the FGOBUHPE "Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation" at the address: Leningradsky Prospekt, d. 49, room. 406, Moscow, GSP-3, 125993. The thesis can be found in the dissertation hall of the Library and Information Complex of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation at the address: Leningradsky Prospect, 49, room. 203, Moscow, GSP-3, 125993 and on the official website: http://www.fa.ru. The abstract was sent out on February 10, 2015 Scientific Secretary of the Dissertation Council D 505.001.02 Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor Meshkova Elena Ivanovna 3 I. GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WORK Relevance of the topic of the dissertation research. The current stage in the development of property valuation is characterized by a deeper understanding of the theory and methodology for determining its market value, the consolidation of fundamental principles in the developed valuation standards, as well as the dissemination of the latest methods in practice. The principle of the most efficient use (hereinafter BEI), the practical aspect of which is realized with the help of NEI analysis methods, is one of the most controversial and least developed provisions of the theory and practice of property valuation. It implies that the value of the market value of the appraisal object is formed by its unique characteristics, subject to the optimal use option that ensures the satisfaction of social and industrial needs, the maximization of the profit of its owner and, as a result, the highest value of the object itself. The obligation to take into account the NEI principle in assessing the market value of real estate, which is laid down in international valuation standards, is enshrined in the federal standard “Real Estate Valuation (FSO No. 7)” adopted in September 2014, however, this does not stop the discussion in the valuation community regarding its fundamental need and implementation procedures. The lack of a unified conceptual apparatus, transparent and systematic methodological tools, and a developed information infrastructure complicates the identification of an NEI option for an object for the purpose of assessing its market value. Thus, the obligatory implementation of the NEI principle in assessing the market value of real estate creates an urgent need to improve the methods of its analysis, to specify the existing methods and calculation algorithms adapted to the specifics of the Russian real estate market. The degree of scientific development of the problem. The NEI principle as one of the fundamental principles of valuation is considered mainly in works on real estate valuation by foreign authors: Kinnard V., Ordway N., Reilly D., Ring A., Friedman D., Harrison G.S., Eckert D.K. . and others, and Russian authors: Alexandrov V.T., Artemenkov I.L., Asaul A.N., Grabovoi P.G., Gribovsky S.V., Gryaznova A.G., Ivanova E.N., Korosteleva S.P., Kulakova Yu.N., Leifera L.A., 4 Ozerova E.S., Petrova V.I., Sternik G.M., Sternik S.G., Tarasevich E.I., Tepman L.N., Fedotova M.A., Fomenko A.N., Yaskevich E.E. etc. Highly appreciating the contribution of scientists to the development of approaches and methods of real estate valuation, it should be noted that the coverage of NEI in their works is of a general nature, does not contain clear comprehensive methods for its practical implementation. The applied aspect of the NEI principle, implemented through the analysis of alternative use cases, in the works of domestic and foreign authors is reduced mainly to a description of a brief algorithm, does not contain a rationale for the feasibility and scope of its application, as well as restrictions due to Russian valuation conditions. In the last decade, interest in the problems of practical implementation of the NEI principle has increased in the Russian scientific literature. Conceptual issues of analysis in the conditions of the Russian real estate market are covered in the works of Grigoriev V.V., Ozerov E.S., Smolyak S.A., Fomenko A.N.; applied aspects of solving problems of analysis in the conditions of market closure, undeveloped information infrastructure, high degree of uncertainty are considered by Alexandrov V. T., Korostelev S.P., Munerman I.V., Ozerov E.S., Pupentsova S.V., Yaskevich E.E. They developed recommendations for improving individual stages of the NEI analysis, aimed at improving the quality of valuation services. In dissertations Grunov S.V. and Gubareva E.V. the issues of NEI analysis in the context of problems of general economic management and efficiency of resource use are being studied. The work of Petrova M.N. is of practical significance. , which explores the quantitative and qualitative methods of NEI analysis. However, the proposed economic and mathematical models have a number of limitations and require adaptation to the current realities of the real estate market and valuation activities in Russia, as well as installation into a complex algorithm. Thus, the existing interpretations of the NEI principle require comprehension and clarification in accordance with the main trends in improving the standards and methods of real estate valuation, the current level of development of which dictates the need to develop a comprehensive analysis algorithm using methods that are relevant to the Russian conditions of valuation. Purpose and objectives of the study. The purpose of the study is to improve the methodological tools for the analysis of NEI, which provides an increase in the correctness of the 5 real estate valuation. To achieve the goal of the study, the following tasks were set in the work: - to clarify the content of the concept of the principle of the most efficient use and the procedure for its practical implementation, to argue the need for its mandatory implementation in the valuation of real estate;  consider the existing classification of real estate objects and analyze the possibility of introducing a new attribute that groups objects according to the need and the degree of detail of the NEI analysis;  analyze the specific features of the Russian real estate market to identify its most acute problems in order to improve the NEI analysis algorithm and methods for its practical implementation;  develop methodological recommendations that take into account the specifics of the Russian real estate market, according to the practical assessment of the basic criteria for analysis: legal admissibility, physical feasibility and financial feasibility;  explore the methods of NEI analysis, develop recommendations and evaluate the effectiveness of their practical application in Russian assessment practice. The object of research is the principle of NEI as an immanent component of the valuation of real estate. The subject of the study is the methodological tools for the practical implementation of the NEI principle in assessing the market value of real estate objects. Field of study. The study was carried out in accordance with paragraph 5.1 "Theory, methodology and conceptual foundations for the formation of the value of various property objects" of the Passport of the specialty 08.00.10 - Finance, money circulation and credit (economic sciences). The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are the key provisions of economic theory and system analysis, as well as the conclusions contained in the works of domestic and foreign authors on the theory of valuation and investment analysis, in particular, on the valuation of real estate, business, evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects, pricing in construction. The fundamental nature of the principle under study necessitated the use of general scientific theoretical methods of cognition (historical, analytical, synthetic, methods of deduction and system analysis, etc.), as well as modern methods of economic and mathematical analysis: expert assessments, analysis of hierarchies, scenario method, financial modeling, grouping, tabular presentation of data, etc. The information base of the study was analytical reviews of real estate markets, scientific reports of conferences and seminars on the subject of the problem under study, analytical materials of periodicals, as well as reference and analytical resources on the Internet, legislative and regulatory acts of the Russian Federation, reports on the assessment of the market value of real estate objects, own research and calculations of the author. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the improvement of the theoretical and methodological tools for analyzing the NEI of real estate for the purposes of valuation. The provisions of the scientific novelty of the dissertation submitted for defense are as follows: 1. To prove the need to take into account the NEI principle in valuation, as well as to determine the content of the analysis, the prevailing views on its role and essence are investigated and it is substantiated that it is a key principle of evaluation the market value of the property, as reflected in the proposed formulations. The NEI principle is the basic provision of the theory of estimating the market value of real estate, the value of which should be determined based on the assumption of its NEI - the use of a competitive, market-demanded and justified on the date of assessment, meeting the criteria of legal admissibility, physical feasibility, financial feasibility and maximizing the value potential of a free or built-up land. NEI analysis is a valuation procedure that ensures the practical implementation of the NEI principle, and consists in studying the effectiveness of the option for using the object that has developed at the date of assessment, and comparing it with alternative development options in order to identify a use that maximizes the value of the land. 2. The need to introduce a new classification feature of real estate objects “the need and degree of detail of the NEI analysis” is substantiated based on the identified key characteristics of real estate: origin, suitability of improvements for operation, divisibility, physical condition of improvements, functional purpose. 3. The necessity of modernizing and expanding the NEI analysis algorithm in the valuation of real estate is proved, which consists both in changing the sequence of analysis, according to which the stages of studying the economic potential of the location and the criterion of legal admissibility should precede the stage of market research, and in introducing additional stages: classification of the property being valued according to the degree of detail of the NEI analysis; qualitative analysis of alternative use cases. 4. The need for a qualitative comparison of alternative options for using the object of assessment, implemented through the proposed algorithm using the method of analysis of hierarchies (hereinafter HAI), based on the use of criteria: a) the completeness of the use of location advantages; b) legal validity of development; c) physical feasibility; d) the development potential of the real estate market; e) the efficiency of attracting financial resources, which makes it possible to identify the options for using real estate that are least in demand on the market and exclude them from subsequent research. 5. Based on the systematization of existing methods for analyzing the NEI, identifying their advantages and disadvantages, it is substantiated that the method of analyzing a land plot as conditionally free and with existing improvements, involving direct capitalization of income generated by a single real estate object, followed by subtraction of the cost of creating improvements (or costs for their reconstruction) and bringing the resulting value to the date of assessment, ensures the maximum correctness of the results in the current conditions of Russian appraisal activities. 6. As a result of the study of the Russian real estate market, the need to take into account the intermediate use of objects in the analysis of NEI was proved, for which the concept of “intermediate type of use of real estate” was clarified, and a methodology for its analysis was developed and tested. The theoretical significance of the results of the study lies in the development of a detailed algorithm for analyzing the NEI of real estate, which makes it possible to put into practice the fundamental principle of the theory of valuation, therefore, the elements of scientific novelty put forward for defense can be interpreted as its further development in terms of improving the methodological tools for determining the market value of real estate. The main results of the study can be used in the formation of training courses related to real estate valuation. The practical significance of the dissertation lies in the fact that the elements of scientific novelty obtained by the author are focused on widespread use in the practice of real estate valuation, contribute to improving the quality of valuation services and the growth of the investment attractiveness of the objects being valued. Of independent practical importance are:  a system of characteristics of real estate objects, which ensures their grouping according to the proposed classification feature “necessity and degree of detail of the NEI analysis”;  developed methodology for the analysis of the criterion of physical feasibility, based on the systematization of legal documentation and classification of real estate objects, to reliably determine the potential parameters of the development of a land plot and predict the space-planning characteristics of various options for its use;  the proposed algorithm for qualitative comparison of alternative use cases using the AHP, which allows to exclude inefficient options from the subsequent analysis of the criteria of financial feasibility and maximum efficiency;  developed methodology for NEI analysis taking into account the intermediate use case, which provides for taking into account changes in urban development plans for the development of territories and long-term plans of developers with a short-term preservation of the current use of real estate objects. Approbation and implementation of the results of the work: the main results of the dissertation research were reported, discussed and approved at scientific and practical conferences and a round table: Annual international scientific and practical conference "Prospects for the development of national economies of the CES member countries in the context of international integration processes" (Karaganda , Karaganda Economic University of Kazpotrebsoyuz, April 12-13, 2012); Fifth International Scientific and Methodological Conference "Property Cost: Valuation and Management" (Moscow, Moscow Financial and Industrial University "Synergy", November 22, 2013 ); round table “Property Management: Global Practice and Russian Realities” (Moscow, Mergers and Acquisitions Congress, Financial University, September 19, 2014). The dissertation was completed as part of the research work carried out at the Financial University as part of the State assignment in 2013 on the topic “Improving the financial stability of Russian enterprises based on their cost management”. The results of the scientific research are used in the practical activities of the Department of Evaluation of the Integrated Joint-Stock Company of the "Knight Analysis Frank" algorithm by applying the NEI. The use of the author's developed methodology for determining space-planning solutions for improvements, the method of analyzing hierarchies, the methodology of analysis taking into account intermediate use, allows us to comply with the requirements of assessment standards, ensure a high level of work, objectivity and correctness of assessment results in a limited information space, contribute to the efficiency and competitiveness of the Department due to a more structured approach to real estate valuation and optimization of the company's operating costs. The NEI analysis algorithm upgraded by the author, which supplements the assessment of the market value of real estate with methodically sound tools, is used in the practical activities of Russian Appraisal Service LLC. In particular, the use of the method of financial feasibility analysis, identified by the author as the most appropriate, which also involves the implementation of a risk analysis, allows you to more deeply explore the NEI, contributing to the improvement of the methodological foundations of the work and improving the quality of the services provided. The results of the study are used in the educational process at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation by the Department of Property Valuation and Management in teaching the academic disciplines “Real Estate Valuation” and “Real Estate Market and its Development Trends”. The implementation of the results of the dissertation research by organizations is confirmed by relevant certificates. in the indicated 10 Publications. On the topic of the dissertation research, 6 papers were published with a total volume of 4.43 p.l. (author's volume 3.92 pp), including 4 works with a total volume of 3.55 pp. (author's volume 3.2 pp) in peer-reviewed scientific publications determined by the Higher Attestation Commission of the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia. The structure and scope of the dissertation. The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references from 119 sources, and 3 appendices. The text of the dissertation is presented on 204 pages. The work is illustrated with 19 tables and 7 figures. II. THE MAIN CONTENT OF THE THESIS In the introduction of the work, the relevance of the topic of the dissertation research is substantiated, the degree of its scientific development and the methodology of the work are presented: the purpose and objectives of the study are determined, the elements of the scientific novelty of the work and its practical significance are reflected. The first group of questions is related to the study of the historical development of the concept of NEI, the definition of the content of the concept of NEI, the role and place of the principle in the modern system of valuation of real estate objects. The valuation of property objects is based on the fundamental premises of the neoclassical theory that dominates modern economic thought. This theory is based on the concept of a rational consumer, whose behavior is driven by the goal of maximizing utility, which predetermined the formation of key principles for assessing market value. The principles of valuation are combined into four groups depending on the source of formation and the degree of influence on the value: principles based on the owner's ideas about the usefulness of the object; principles based on the operational characteristics of the object being assessed; principles conditioned by the influence of the market environment; NEI principle. The essence of the NEI principle lies in the fact that the market value of real estate is formed on the basis of the unique characteristics of the object, which determine the option for its optimal use under the influence of the forces of supply and demand prevailing at the date of valuation, when all market participants are interested in maximizing their own benefit. The NEI principle is maximally implemented in real estate appraisal, which is due to its “two-component nature”: the constant component is a land plot with an invariable link to a specific place and the stability of properties, and the variable component is the improvements made on it. The location and properties of the site predetermine the variant of its use that meets the current needs of the market. The income of the site is provided by the improvements introduced, which can be changed in accordance with the functions demanded by the market. Therefore, the assessment of the market value of real estate is based on the NEI version of the land plot, which maximizes its value potential. The analysis of foreign and Russian scientific literature on the topic of dissertation research, as well as evaluation standards, showed that they contain a large number of different interpretations of the concept of NEI of real estate objects that meet four key criteria: legal admissibility, physical feasibility, financial feasibility and maximum efficiency. Unsatisfactory urban planning, the changing conjuncture of the Russian market, require clarification of the concept of NEI from the standpoint of compliance with market conditions prevailing at the date of the valuation, and current trends in the development of valuation require an emphasis on its theoretical significance. For this, the author's interpretation of the “NEI principle” is formulated, which is given on page 6. The practical implementation of the NEI principle consists in analyzing the effectiveness of the real estate use case that has developed at the date of assessment (hereinafter referred to as the NEI analysis). According to the existing regulations in the field of valuation activities in the Russian Federation, this procedure should be singled out as an independent and mandatory stage preceding the calculation of the market value of real estate using the methods of income, comparative and cost approaches. This requires the introduction of an updated definition of NEI analysis, also presented on page 6. Based on a study and comparison of international (hereinafter referred to as IVS), European and American standards with Russian valuation standards, significant differences in approaches to NEI analysis were revealed. The current version of the IVS, unlike their previous editions, does not stipulate that the market value of an object should be determined based on the identified version of the NEI, but indicates that it reflects it, since the established practice of zoning 12 assumes the effective use of any territory. In this regard, the NEI of the appraised object will be taken into account when analyzing the prices of purchase and sale and lease transactions for analogue objects when assessing its market value using the methods of comparative and income approaches. The Russian unstable real estate market and the peculiarities of legislative regulation of urban planning and zoning do not guarantee that the current option for using the appraised object is effective, and that the prices of analogous objects reflect its NEI. Therefore, in Russian standards, it is currently advisable to single out the NEI analysis as an independent procedure. The complexity of the NEI analysis of real estate, due to the degree of development of its market, which is characterized by a limited information infrastructure and poor development of urban planning, requires the introduction of an additional classification feature of real estate objects, taking into account the need for NEI analysis when determining their market value. The proposed system of key characteristics of real estate: origin; serviceability of improvements; divisibility; physical condition improvements; the type of real estate object, arranged in a hierarchical sequence, allows you to determine the need for NEI analysis and classify the object in accordance with the new classification feature - "the need and degree of detail of the NEI analysis" - to a specific group. A schematic interpretation of the developed system of characteristics for classifying real estate objects in order to determine the need for NEI analysis and the degree of its detail is shown in Figure 1. Thus, the specifics of the Russian real estate market necessitates the practical implementation of the NEI principle for most objects, which consists in the procedure for its analysis, and The state of the market predetermines the need to improve the methods and directions of this analysis. The second group of questions arises from the need for a critical study of the tools for the practical implementation of the principle of improving the existing methods of its analysis. NEI real estate and 13 Origin of PZ with existing improvements Vacant PZ Improvements not serviceable (wear > 80%) Improvements serviceable (wear and tear)< 80%) Неделимый единый комплекс (здания с участками) Анализ НЭИ для свободного ЗУ Анализ НЭИ для свободного ЗУ и ЗУ с существующими улучшениями Составная часть неделимой вещи (помещения, квартиры) Здания, пригодные к эксплуатации (износ от 20% до 40%) Незавершенное строительство Здания, требующие реконструкции или капитального ремонта (износ от 40 до 80%) Новое строительство или реконструкция (износ <20%) Анализ НЭИ для ЗУ с существующими улучшениями Жилые, коммерческие Обществен ные Анализ НЭИ не проводится Источник: разработка автора Рисунок 1 – Классификация объектов по потребности в проведении анализа НЭИ Изучение существующих подходов к анализу НЭИ недвижимого имущества позволило выявить наличие общепринятого алгоритма его практической реализации. Анализ НЭИ принято проводить в двух направлениях: для земельного участка как условно свободного и с существующими улучшениями. Поскольку функциональное использование любого объекта недвижимости опирается в первую очередь на характеристики местоположения, юридические и физические ограничения использования земельного участка, и направлено на раскрытие его стоимостного потенциала, далее описана процедура анализа для земельного участка как условно свободного. Исследование практики реализации принципа НЭИ недвижимости позволило сформулировать основные пробелы существующего алгоритма: изучение местоположения объекта представляет собой самостоятельный этап, не имеющий отношения к анализу НЭИ; не проводится качественный анализ различных вариантов использования; предлагаемая последовательность этапов анализа НЭИ неэффективна и трудоемка; отсутствуют детализированные рекомендации по отдельным аналитическим процедурам, что осложняет практическую реализацию принципа НЭИ. Для устранения выявленных недостатков автором обоснована необходимость модернизации существующего алгоритма анализа НЭИ, которая включает следующие положения. 14 1. Анализ НЭИ следует начинать с исследования характеристик оцениваемого объекта, позволяющих отнести его к определенной группе в соответствии с предложенным новым классификационным признаком «необходимость и степень детальности анализа НЭИ» в соответствии с рисунком 1. 2. Предлагается в первую очередь включать в процедуру анализа НЭИ этап исследования местоположения объекта с позиции изучения конкурентной среды и выявления основных преимуществ и недостатков его расположения, влияющих на выбор вариантов его потенциального использования. 3. В целях сокращения трудоемкости оценочных работ целесообразно сначала рассмотреть критерий юридической допустимости, и только законодательно разрешенные варианты позиционировать на территориальном рынке недвижимости на предмет их востребованности. 4. Целесообразно ввести этап качественного анализа вариантов с применением метода анализа иерархий, и только по наиболее приемлемым вариантам осуществлять количественные расчеты финансовой целесообразности. Схематичное изображение детализированного алгоритма анализа НЭИ с учетом предложенных преобразований представлено на рисунке 2. Исследование объекта по классификационному признаку «необходимость и степень детальности анализа НЭИ» Формирование полного перечня альтернативных вариантов использования объекта оценки Анализ местоположе ния объекта Анализ юридической допустимости с целью выявления законодательно разрешенных видов использования Анализ рынка и существующих классификаций исследуемых сегментов рынка Составление перечня возможных вариантов использования Анализ осуществимости Анализ физической осуществимости с целью выявления потенциально возможных параметров застройки территории по каждому варианту использования Качественный анализ возможных вариантов использования Количественный анализ возможных вариантов использования по критерию финансовой целесообразности Выбор варианта использования, максимизирующего стоимость объекта оценки Источник: разработка автора Рисунок 2 – Детализированный алгоритм анализа НЭИ недвижимости 15 Исследование юридической допустимости предполагает изучение объекта оценки с целью выявления законодательно разрешенных вариантов использования. Поскольку юридическая верификация заключается в определении соответствия текущего и альтернативных вариантов использования существующим градостроительным нормам, в которых также указывается информация о разрешенных параметрах застройки территории, обоснована логическая взаимосвязь данного этапа анализа с исследованием физической осуществимости. На основании проведенной систематизации существующих нормативно-правовых актов, норм и правил, а также документов на участок, была разработана структурированная схема, содержащая перечень документации с указанием содержащейся в ней информации, необходимой для анализа НЭИ. На основании данной схемы определяются основные сегменты рынка недвижимости, на которых можно специализироваться с учетом законодательной разрешенности, и для которых необходимо изучение классификационных требований. Анализ физической осуществимости опирается на разрешенные параметры застройки территории, полученные на этапе исследования юридической допустимости, и классификационные требования. Существующие рекомендации предполагают ограничение данного этапа анализа исследованием физических характеристик участка, его формы и рельефа, а также возможности размещения на нем новых строений, однако они не учитывают основную цель этапа: определить потенциально возможные параметры застройки участка с учетом ограничений по плотности, высотности, объемам строительства. В литературе по оценке недвижимости существуют краткие рекомендации по определению объемно-планировочных параметров застройки земли в ходе анализа НЭИ недвижимости. К недостаткам данных рекомендаций можно отнести индифферентность к наличию различных исходных данных для выбора способа расчета объемно-планировочных характеристик и отсутствие рекомендаций по учету классификаций объектов недвижимости, содержащих требования к отдельным техническим характеристикам строений. Для устранения указанных недостатков разработана авторская методика определения объемно-планировочных решений строений, схематично представленная на рисунке 3, дополненная вариантами расчетов параметров застройки на основании коэффициента плотности застройки (через общую площадь здания) и на основании данных по этажности и высоте этажа, получаемых в результате анализа рынка и исследования классификаций необходимого сегмента 16 рынка. Предложенный алгоритм может выполняться по одному из трех сценариев в зависимости от наличия доступной исходной информации: коэффициента застройки; коэффициента плотности застройки; информации об этажности и высоте этажа. Результатом данного этапа является формулирование альтернативных вариантов использования объекта оценки с указанием их ключевых физических характеристик. Определение исходного показателя Исходя из нормативноправовых актов, классификаций объектов недвижимости Коэффициент застройки Коэффициент плотности застройки S КЗ  З S ЗУ Допустимая площадь застройки S З  К З * S ЗУ 1     Допустимая высотность здания К ПЗ  SЗ  S ЗУ По площади участка, его форме и близости строений ориентировочно определяется SЗ с учетом нормативов по плотности застройки, указанных в СП 42.13330.2011, Приложение Г ввнеш S общ n эт анализ формы участка отступы от границ участка, строений парковка, пожарные проезды корректировка по «строительному модулю» h зд – высотные регламенты, ГПЗУ, внеш S общ hзд  hэт * nэт документы, классификации  Классификации объектов недвижимости по сегментам  Обзоры рынка  Отношение допустимой высоты здания к количеству этажей Минимальная высота 1 этажа Целесообразная этажность здания n эт  Допустимая общая площадь здания по внешнему обмеру h зд hэт внеш S общ  S З * nэт Допустимая общая площадь здания по внутреннему обмеру nэт  внеш S общ SЗ внеш S общ  К ПЗ * S ЗУ внутр внеш Sобщ  Sобщ  Толщина наружных стен При наличии данных об этажности или условий 1 и 2 3 2 Для расчета арендопригод ной площади внутр внеш S общ  S общ * 0,95 Строительный объем здания (Vстр) внеш Vстр  S общ * hзд Источник: разработка автора Рисунок 3 – Схема определения объемно-планировочных характеристик строений Отобранные варианты использования подлежат проверке по критерию финансовой целесообразности, заключающейся в изучении стоимостного потенциала 17 объекта недвижимости и способности генерирования им положительного денежного потока. Для повышения эффективности данного этапа целесообразно предварительно сопоставить данные варианты использования по качественным характеристикам. Выбор варианта НЭИ недвижимости представляет собой процесс принятия решения по совокупности большого числа параметров, поэтому автором рассмотрена возможность применения метода анализа иерархий (далее МАИ). Применение МАИ основывается на качественной интерпретации анализируемых параметров, оцененных на основе экспертных суждений и логики, с учетом их влияния на итоговый результат. Многокритериальный анализ на базе МАИ позволяет представить сложный процесс принятия решения в качестве структурированной иерархической системы и учесть взаимное влияние факторов на каждый из рассматриваемых вариантов использования и сопоставить их на основании отобранных критериев. Исследовательская задача, заключающаяся в определении данных критериев анализа НЭИ недвижимости, формирующих первый и второй уровни иерархии, была решена путем опроса экспертного мнения специалистов-оценщиков в отношении значимости и взаимного влияния отобранных критериев. Результаты анализа представлены в таблице 1. Таблица 1 – Веса критериев анализа НЭИ Критерий 1 порядка Использование потенциала местоположения Юридическая обоснованность Физическая осуществимость Потенциал рынка развития Эффективность привлечения финансовых ресурсов Итог Вес, % 24,8 34,9 26,5 8,4 Критерий 2 порядка Полнота использования преимуществ с точки зрения транспортной доступности Полнота использования преимуществ с точки зрения пассажиропотока Конкуренция в ближайшем окружении Соответствие назначению по градостроительному плану земельного участка Соответствие назначению по кадастровому паспорту или свидетельству Соответствие функции назначению по правилам землепользования и застройки территории Наличие данных о возможности изменения назначения Соответствие функции назначению по генеральному плану поселения Эффективность по критерию плотности застройки Эффективность по критерию максимальной высотности Арендопригодная площадь Наличие свободных ниш рынка Потенциал развития сегмента рынка Средний уровень доходности сегмента Возможность привлечения заемных средств 5,4 Эффективность привлечения заемных средств 100 Вес, % Итого вес, % 33,3 8,3 33,3 8,3 33,3 8,3 44,0 15,4 28,3 9,9 17,1 6,0 7,3 2,6 3,4 1,2 42,9 42,9 14,3 63,7 25,8 10,5 75,0 11,3 11,3 3,8 5,3 2,2 0,9 4,1 25,0 1,4 100 Источник: исследование автора 18 После построения иерархической структуры процесса принятия решения о выборе варианта НЭИ анализ проводится в рамках стандартных процедур МАИ. Альтернативы использования объекта оценки, которые получают наименьшие веса качества, исключаются из последующего анализа. После применения МАИ отобранные варианты использования недвижимости подлежат количественной оценке по критерию финансовой целесообразности с точки зрения способности генерировать положительный денежный поток и раскрывать стоимостной потенциал земельного участка. Количественная оценка отобранных вариантов использования по критериям финансовой целесообразности и максимальной эффективности представляет собой наиболее сложный и трудоемкий этап анализ, опирающийся на классические методы стоимостной оценки, представленные в таблице 2. Таблица 2 – Существующие методы практической реализации принципа НЭИ № п/п Метод анализа НЭИ/Соответствующий метод оценки ЗУ Расчетная формула Трудноопределяемые параметры Вывод о применимости Rb, Rl Область применения ограничена возможностями определения коэффициентов капитализации отдельно для здания и для земельного участка. Не выявлены Применим при наличии информации о стоимости улучшений и сопоставимости анализируемых вариантов по техническим параметрам застройки, срокам реализации и начала операционной деятельности. Анализ ЗУ как условно свободного I O  VB * RB RL VL  где: V L – рыночная 1 «Земельный участок рассматривается как незастроенный, коэффициенты капитализации для земли и строений различны» / Метод остатка для земли, модификация 1 стоимость земли, ден. ед.; I O – чистый операционный доход, приносимый единым объектом недвижимости, ден. ед.; V B – рыночная стоимость улучшений, ден. ед.; RB – коэффициент капитализации для улучшений; RL – коэффициент капитализации для земли. 2 «Земельный участок рассматривается как незастроенный, коэффициенты капитализации для зданий и земли одинаковы» / Метод остатка для земли, модификация 2 VL  где: IO  VB , RO Ro – общий коэффициент капитализации. 19 Продолжение таблицы 2 № п/п Метод анализа НЭИ/Соответствующий метод оценки ЗУ Расчетная формула Труднооп ределяе мые параметр ы VL  VO  VB 3 «Земельный участок рассматривается как незастроенный, и известна рыночная цена продажи недвижимости предполагаемого назначения»/ Метод выделения VB  E B * Pr где: VО – рыночная стоимость единого объекта недвижимости, ден. ед.; E B – стоимость Vо воспроизводства улучшений за вычетом физического износа, ден. ед.; Pr – прибыль девелопера. Вывод о применимости Область применения ограничена наличием рыночных данных по сопоставимым со всеми анализируемыми вариантами объектам-аналогам; наличием информации об износе и стоимости улучшений по объектам-аналогам. E1 E2  ... (1  Y) 1 (1  Y) 2 En I1 I2    (1  Y) n (1  Y)1 (1  Y) 2 VL    .... In (1  Y) n  VOn 1 (1  Y) n где: E1 , E2 , En – сумма 4 Метод предполагаемого использования*/ Метод предполагаемого использования капитальных затрат в n-й период времени, ден. ед.; I1 , I 2 , I n – величина чистого операционного расхода в nй период времени, ден. ед.; E, Y, n Y – ставка дисконтирования, дол. ед.; Применим при условии возможности достоверного определения затрат на создание улучшений, сроков строительства, загрузки объекта, прогноза доходов. VOn1 – стоимость реверсии единого объекта недвижимости в постпрогнозном периоде времени, ден. ед. Анализ ЗУ с существующими улучшениями VO  5 6 «Земельный участок рассматривается как застроенный, строения требуют проведения некоторых улучшений»/Нет где: Применим при наличии возможности достоверного определения затрат на изменение существующих улучшений. IO  E Im p RO E Im p - расходы, связанные с проведением работ по реконструкции/модернизаци и/капитальному ремонту, ден. ед. E «Земельный участок Применим при условии рассматривается как анализа земельного участка с Не IO VO  застроенный, не требующий не выявле- улучшениями, RO улучшений»/Метод прямой требующими затрат. ны капитализации дохода * Одинаковые условия реализации как для свободного участка, так и для участка с улучшениями

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of real estate valuation

1.2 Classification of real estate objects

1.3 Types of property values

1.4 Basic principles of real estate appraisal

1.5 Factors affecting property value

Chapter 2. Valuation of a residential property

2.2 Valuation of residential property using the income approach

2.3 Valuation of residential real estate by comparing sales of analogues

2.4 Property valuation using the cost approach

2.5 Coordination of real estate valuation results

Chapter 3. Suggestions for improving real estate valuation methods

Conclusion

List of used literature and sources

Application

INTRODUCTION

Among the elements of a market economy, a special place is occupied by real estate, which acts as a means of production (land, administrative, industrial, warehouse, retail and other buildings and premises, as well as other structures) and an object or object of consumption (land plots, residential buildings, cottages, apartments, garages).

Real estate is the basis of personal existence for citizens and serves as the basis for economic activity and development of enterprises and organizations of all forms of ownership. In Russia, there is an active formation and development of the real estate market and an increasing number of citizens, enterprises and organizations are involved in real estate transactions.

Thanks to the constructive interaction between the state and appraisers, the process of property appraisal in recent years has become much more civilized compared to the times when an independent appraisal in Russia was just in its infancy. Today, the activities of appraisers are regulated by the relevant federal law and standards in the field of appraisal.

The purpose of the thesis is to develop proposals for improving methods for assessing residential real estate.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

Describe the essence of housing appraisal;

To characterize methodological approaches to real estate appraisal;

Valuate residential real estate using a cost, comparative and income approach;

Conduct a comparative analysis of the evaluation results;

Develop proposals for improving the methodology for assessing residential real estate.

The object of research in the thesis is the valuation of residential real estate, and the subject of research is the methods and approaches to the valuation of residential real estate.

The methodological basis of the research carried out in the thesis work is the scientific works of domestic and foreign authors in the field of real estate valuation S.V. Gribovsky, E.I. Tarasevich, M.A. Fedotova, D. Fridman.

In the first chapter of the thesis "Methodological position for assessing the value of real estate" disclosed the types of value of real estate, their classification. The factors influencing the value of real estate objects, as well as the basic principles of real estate valuation are considered.

The second chapter "Residential real estate appraisal" presents the results of the appraisal of a real estate object - a two-room apartment located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk - using an income and comparative approach, as well as the results of calculating the salvage value of the property.

The third chapter "Suggestions for improving residential real estate valuation methods" presents the main directions for improving existing approaches to residential real estate valuation.

Chapter 1

1.1 The need for an independent home appraisal

Valuation is the science of applied economic analysis, the main task of which is to establish the most probable price for the sale or purchase of an asset (goods) based on an analysis of the dynamics of the forces of supply and demand for this asset in the relevant market. From a formal point of view, the most probable price is set on the basis of modeling a certain set of demand factors and a set of supply factors.

Currently, real estate valuation activities are regulated by the Federal Law "On valuation activities in the Russian Federation" dated 06.08.98 No. 135 - FZ.

The current situation in the real estate market contributes to the active development of real estate valuation in our country.

The real estate market is currently one of the most dynamic markets in our country, one of the most attractive investment objects. It is becoming very important right now, when the situation in the world is very unstable: experts cannot give accurate forecasts about oil prices, they predict a depreciation of the dollar, - real estate remains practically the only guarantor of the safety of savings.

The main directions of development of the Russian appraisal can be determined based on the list of operations in which it is necessary to evaluate real estate objects. It should be noted that this list is constantly expanding.

An objective assessment of various types of value (market, investment, collateral, insurance, taxable and others) of real estate is necessary:

When buying, selling or renting;

When corporatizing enterprises and redistributing property shares;

To attract new shareholders and additional issue of shares;

When cadastral valuation for the purposes of taxation of real estate objects: buildings and land plots;

For real estate insurance;

When lending secured by real estate;

When making real estate objects as a contribution to the authorized capital of enterprises and organizations;

When developing investment projects and attracting investors, including foreign ones;

Upon liquidation of real estate objects;

When executing inheritance rights, a court sentence;

In other transactions related to the sale of property rights to real estate.

There are three main approaches to property valuation:

Cost method: the cost of complete reproduction or the cost of complete replacement of the property being valued is estimated, then the amount of the estimated depreciation of buildings and structures is subtracted and the value of the land plot is added as free. This approach may be necessary when the valuation of an object for the purposes of property taxation or property seizure requires the separation of the value of buildings and structures from the value of land. It is also used for income tax and accounting purposes: depreciation of buildings and structures is deducted from taxable income. Other situations to apply:

Feasibility study for new construction,

Determination of the option of the best and most efficient use of land,

Update,

Final price negotiation

Buildings for institutional and special purposes,

Purposes of insurance.

Market comparison method: estimating the market value of a property based on recent transactions with similar properties. It is assumed that a rational investor or buyer will not pay more for a particular property than it would cost to acquire another similar property with the same utility.

Income method: the value of a property is determined by the amount, quality and duration of the period of receipt of the benefits that this property is expected to bring in the future.

In Russia, in recent years, the cost method has been widespread in assessing the value of objects. Moreover, its use was declared by the Government when developing property revaluation programs. This led to the fact that the cost of fixed assets, real estate was very underestimated. Now the process of revaluation of such objects is of particular importance, which can be done based on the market method of valuation.

To date, the number of appraisal organizations in the Russian market is significant. As of the end of 2004, more than 9,000 companies and PBOYuL in Russia have state licenses to carry out appraisal activities. Now the market is regulated by the Ministry of Economic Development, but from January 1, 2006, a transition to self-regulation is underway.

At the present stage, the appraisal market is characterized by increasing competition, improving quality, and reducing the cost of services. In particular, the demand for valuation in order to reflect assets in financial statements in accordance with IAS, US GAAP or Russian accounting standards is constantly increasing; assessment of the value of intangible assets to determine the effectiveness of marketing and brand strategies; valuation for the purpose of making purchase and sale transactions, lease of assets, M&A and other transactions for the transfer of ownership and other real rights; valuation for the purposes of insurance, additional issue of shares or buyback of shares during the privatization of state-owned enterprises; appraisal for the purpose of lending secured by property, etc. .

According to the results of a study by the Expert RA rating agency, the most demanded services over the past year and a half were real estate and business valuation services in general. The share of these areas in the overall market structure accounted for 34.3% and 32.1%, respectively.

1.2 Classification of real estate objects

Valuation of real estate is of interest primarily for objects that are actively circulating on the market as an independent product. Currently, in Russia these are apartments and rooms, office premises and office buildings, suburban residential buildings with land plots, free land plots for development and (or) for other purposes. Real estate objects also include mineral deposits, the Russian market of which has not yet been formed. Below we consider the general principles for classifying real estate objects.

The first category of real estate objects. The term “real estate” in our case refers to any product that is rigidly connected to a piece of land, its transfer to another place is impossible without destruction and loss of consumer value. The proposed wording aims to promote a differentiated approach to the assessment of various categories of real estate objects, taking into account their most significant features, features of trade turnover, the structure and scale of markets within which real estate purchase and sale processes take place. Since a variety of conditions and their combinations affect the valuation of a property, the "feature tree" method was used to classify (group). Such a classification (grouping) is multilevel. At each level, it is carried out on its own basis with their possible differences at the same level, but along different “branches”. At the same time, the depth (number of levels) of the classification is greater for those branches on which more representative (in terms of their assessment) objects are located.

Each level has its own name and a set of recommended values for the corresponding classification attribute.

1. Origin.

2. Appointment.

3. Scale.

3.1 Land areas.

3.2. Separate land plots.

3.3. Complexes of buildings and structures (cottage settlement, microdistrict, hotel, sanatorium, etc.)

3.3.1. Residential building multi-apartment.

3.3.2. Residential house single-family (mansion, cottage).

3.3.3. Section (entrance).

3.3.4. Floor in section.

3.3.5. Apartment.

3.3.6. Room.

3.3.7. Summer cottage.

3.4. complex of administrative buildings.

3.4.1. Building.

3.4. Premises or parts of buildings (sections, floors).

4. Ready for use.

4.1. Ready.

4.2. Requiring reconstruction or major repairs.

4.3. Requiring completion of construction.

Since the apartment market is currently the most developed sector of the real estate market in Russia, it makes sense to focus on studying this particular sector in order to develop basic methodological approaches to assessing the value of real estate.

In the formed western market, another one is adopted, which differs from the classification of real estate objects proposed above into categories A, B and C.

It is divided into the following classes:

1) Specialized real estate, adapted to the conduct of a specific business and usually sold with the business.

Examples: oil refineries, chemical plants, workshops for the placement of machinery and equipment; buildings that, due to their location, size, construction, are never sold or rented to a third party on the market.

2) Non-specialized real estate - ordinary buildings - shops, offices, factories, warehouses, which are usually sold or rented out.

The classification of real estate objects according to various characteristics (criteria) contributes to a more successful research of the real estate market and facilitates the development and application of methods for estimating the value of various categories of real estate. In the process of classification, separate groups of real estate are distinguished, which determines the possibility of uniform approaches to their valuation.

1.3 Types of property values

At the initial stage of real estate appraisal, the expert appraiser always faces the difficult problem of choosing the type of value for appraisal calculations. This choice depends on many factors (the nature of the object and the evaluation functions) and determines the subsequent choice of the method of valuation of this property. If real estate appraisal is carried out for the purpose of obtaining a mortgage loan (loans secured by real estate property), it is important for the appraiser to have reliable information about the most likely sale price of this real property if the borrower (property owner) does not repay the debt (loan). When assessing real estate for tax purposes in Western countries, the market or replacement value of the property is used, based on the cost of reproduction of the latter. When evaluating objects to be reconstructed, as a rule, the investment value is chosen, i.e. the value of the property for a particular investor.

When evaluating buildings for special purposes, real estate in the "passive" sectors of the real estate market, when there is not enough information to determine the market value, as well as when evaluating for the purposes of real estate insurance, the replacement cost or replacement cost is used.

Market price

In market economic conditions, the most common type of value of real estate is the market value. Market value is the most likely price that a property should achieve in a competitive and open market under all conditions of fair trade, conscious action by the seller and buyer, and without the influence of illegal incentives.

It is understood that in a sale and purchase transaction, the transfer of rights from the seller to the buyer is subject to the following conditions.

1. The motivation of the buyer and the seller are typical, i.e. they operate without undue pressure or extraordinary life circumstances.

2. Both parties are well informed, consulted and act, in their opinion, taking into account their maximum interests.

3. The property was put up for sale on the market for a sufficient amount of time (sufficient for potential buyers to get acquainted with the information about the sale of real estate and make a decision to purchase the property).

4. Payment was made on the terms of financing the deal.

5. The price is normal, not affected by the specific conditions of financing and sale.

The market value of real estate is otherwise called the value in exchange - in contrast to the value in use (or value in use), which reflects the value of the object for a particular owner.

The concept of market value is based on the fact that a typical buyer in the real estate market has the opportunity to choose alternative properties. The market value is objective, independent of the desires of individual participants in the real estate market and reflects the real economic conditions that are developing in this market.

Cost in use (value in use)

Value in use (value in use) reflects the value of a property for a particular owner who is not going to put the property on the real estate market. The assessment of the consumer value of an object is made on the basis of the existing profile of its use and those financial and economic parameters that were observed during the prehistory of the operation of the object and are predicted in the future.

Investment cost

The concept of "investment value", similar to the concept of "value in use", means the value of the property for a specific investor who is going to buy or invest in the property being valued. The calculation of the investment value is made on the basis of the income expected by this investor and the specific rate of their capitalization. The investment value is usually calculated when evaluating an investment project or an income-generating object for a particular investor. This type of value is subjective.

Replacement cost (cost of reproduction of an object)

The replacement cost (the cost of reproducing an object) is determined by the costs in current prices for the construction of an exact copy of the object being evaluated, in its “new” state (without depreciation), using the same architectural solutions, building structures and materials, as well as with the same quality of construction - installation works. In this case, the same obsolescence of the object and the same shortcomings in architectural solutions are reproduced that the evaluated object had.

replacement cost

The replacement cost is determined by the costs in current prices for the construction of a facility that has an estimated equivalent utility, but built in a new architectural style, using modern design standards and progressive materials and structures, as well as modern equipment of the property. Thus, the replacement cost is expressed by the costs of reproducing an exact copy of the object, and the replacement cost is expressed by the costs of creating an object of a functional analogue.

Insurance value

The insured value is calculated on the basis of either the replacement cost or the replacement cost of an object that is at risk of destruction (or destruction). On the basis of the insured value of the object, the sums insured, insurance payments and insurance interest are determined.

Value for tax purposes (taxable value)

The value for the purposes of taxation of the property of legal entities and individuals is determined by expert appraisers accredited for tax inspections based on either the market value or the replacement value of the property, or the appraisal is carried out formally according to the regulatory methodology without the involvement of expert appraisers.

Liquidation value

The salvage value is the net amount of money that the owner of the property can receive when the property is liquidated.

1.4 Basic principles of real estate appraisal

The principles of real estate appraisal can be grouped into the following four groups:

Principles based on perceptions of use;

Principles related to real estate (land, buildings, structures);

Principles related to the market environment;

The principle of the best and most efficient use of the property.

All the considered principles of real estate valuation are interconnected. When evaluating a property, it is necessary, if possible, to take into account all or the main principles of valuation in order to obtain a more reliable and accurate assessment of the value of the property.

User Principles

Principles based on user perceptions include the principles of utility, substitution, and expectation.

The principle of utility is that any property has value only if it is useful to some investor and can be used to implement certain functions or personal needs, for example, the use of real estate as a hotel, cafe, office, museum, etc. .d. Utility is the ability of a property to satisfy a user's needs at a given location and for a given period of time.

The principle of substitution states that a rational (typical) buyer will not pay more for a property than the minimum price charged for another similar property of the same utility. The maximum value of the object being valued is determined by the lowest cost at which another similar object with equivalent utility can be acquired.

The expectation principle is related to the representation of the user of the property and says: the value of the income-generating object is determined by the amount of cash flow expected from the use of the property being valued, as well as the amount expected from its resale. It is important for what period of time the expected income will be received, since the investor's ruble today is worth more than the ruble that will be received tomorrow.

Principles related to the requirements for a land plot, buildings and structures that are located on it

This group includes the following principles:

Residual productivity (productivity) of the land;

marginal productivity (contribution principle);

Balance (principle of proportionality);

Optimal values;

Optimal division of property rights.

The principle of residual productivity of the land.

The principle of residual productivity (or productivity) states that land value is based on its residual productivity (productivity). To understand this position, it is necessary to recognize that any kind of activity, as a rule, requires the presence of four components of production: capital, labor, management and land.

Land is a land plot and natural resources located on it - closed reservoirs, wildlife, vegetation and minerals. The territorial boundaries of a land plot are determined in accordance with the procedure established by the current land legislation, and are formalized by a certificate issued to the owner (or lessee) by state land management authorities. Land is the main factor that provides the space and resources needed for any type of productive activity.

Labor is a set of work on the production of goods (services) and its implementation in the market. This concept does not include management activities.

Capital is money invested in the reproduction of fixed assets and working capital, as well as in other components of production - labor, land and management.

The management of production activities includes the knowledge, skills, entrepreneurial abilities and talent of the management personnel of the enterprise. Successful management allows you to optimize production and maximize profits.

Each component of production (capital, labor, management and land) must be covered from business income. However, since the land is physically immovable, and other components are attracted to it for entrepreneurial activities, labor, capital and management are paid first of all, and the rest of the income is paid to the owner of the land as rent. Such a judgment is consistent with the main provisions of economic theory - land has a "residual value" and a certain value only when there is a residual income after covering the other three components of production. Thus, residual productivity is expressed as income accruing to land, after paying for the costs of labor, capital and management.

The principle of marginal productivity (principle of contribution).

The principle of marginal productivity (or productivity) or the principle of contribution means that as a result of investment, income should be received, remaining after covering costs. With regard to the real estate market, this principle can be interpreted as follows. Often, the cost of repairing an apartment allows you to increase its value, and in amounts that significantly exceed the cost of repairing it. In this case, the principle of marginal productivity or the principle of contribution is realized. The amount of the contribution corresponds to the difference between the price received as a result of the repair of the apartment and the cost of this repair.

The principle of increasing and decreasing returns.

The essence of this principle is that an increase in capital investments in the main components of production causes an increase in the growth rate of profits only up to a certain limit, after which the increase in profits becomes less than the increase in capital investments. This limit corresponds to the maximum value of the property. Any subsequent investment in real estate will not give a proportional increase in profits, and therefore a proportional increase in the value of the property.

Therefore, the appraiser must first analyze the various options for using the land. For example, to perform calculations of profit from the construction of various types of real estate objects or a different number of objects on a given land plot. Only after that he will be able to make the final choice of the type of property for construction on this site. In the process of variant design of various combinations of production components and determination of the maximum profit on this basis, the principle of increasing and decreasing profitability is implemented.

The principle of balance.

The principle of balance (or the principle of proportionality) is formulated as follows: the components of production (or real estate) must be combined with each other in a certain proportion. If the volume of capital investments exceeds the volume of work in a given period of time, for example, in the construction of an object, then there is a “capital freeze” and a decrease in the overall efficiency of the project. A similar situation is possible when at a given moment in time there are not enough funds for the construction of a property, which is well known to investors in new construction. In this regard, the regulatory documents as part of the design documentation for the construction of the facility provide for the development of calendar schedules for the construction of the facility in order to obtain the maximum possible effect from the implementation of the project.

The principle of optimal values.

The principle of optimal values (principle of optimal economic value), given the trends prevailing in the real estate market, a certain (optimal) value of a given type of property is in great demand. An expert appraiser should always keep in mind the principle of optimal values and use it when evaluating real estate of this type.

The principle of optimal division of property rights.

Property rights to a property should be divided and combined in such a way as to increase the total value of the property. The current legislation of the Russian Federation allows the division and sale of property rights separately. Ownership refers to the right to own, use and dispose of property. In addition to the right of ownership, property rights are the right of lifetime inheritable possession, the right of permanent (perpetual) property use, the right of economic possession and the right of operational management, as well as various kinds of easements - the right of limited use of the property. Moreover, the transfer of ownership of property to another person is not a basis for the termination of other property rights, such as lease rights to this property.

The division of property rights to a real estate object can be carried out as follows:

1. Physical separation is the division of a property into parts: basement, floors, etc. For a land plot - the division of rights to the airspace, to the surface of the earth and to its subsoil, the division of the land mass into separate plots.

2. Separation by time of ownership - different types of lease, lifetime ownership, future property rights, etc.

3. Separation of the totality of property rights of ownership - the right of possession, fixed-term or perpetual use, disposal, lifelong (inherited) possession, economic management, operational management and the right to limited use of the property.

4. Sharing of property rights among participants - joint lease, partnership, joint-stock companies, options, trusts, contracts with stipulated terms of sale.

5. Separations by liens - mortgages, tax liens, judicial liens, equity.

The use in the practice of property relations of the above types of separation of the totality of property rights and their optimal combination allows you to increase the value of real estate.

Principles related to the market environment

This group of principles includes the principles of dependence, conformity, supply and demand, competition and the principle of change.

Dependency Principle

The principle of dependence (or the principle of external influence) states: various environmental factors affect the value of a property. These factors - depending on the degree of their influence on a particular object - are divided into main and additional; depending on the sphere of influence - on climatic, geological, regional, social, economic, environmental, demographic, legal, international, urban planning, industry and technical. In turn, economic factors can also be differentiated according to various criteria: financial, regulatory and others. An expert appraiser must remember that in all cases, location is the main factor affecting the value of a property, and the analysis of the value of real estate should begin with it. The main factors also include the proximity of the property to a developed infrastructure (connection with the user's market): roads, shopping and cultural centers, etc., i.е. the evaluator needs to establish how the revenue streams are related to the user market. These two factors - the location of the object and its relationship with the user's market - together make up the concept of "economic location of real estate. This total factor has the greatest impact on the value of the property. The expert appraiser must identify and measure the impact of environmental factors on:

The value of the property being valued and make appropriate adjustments to that value using the sales comparison method;

The amount of cash flow using the income approach;

Cost level when determining replacement cost or replacement cost using the cost approach.

The principle of conformity.

The conformity principle states that a property that does not meet current market standards has a lower value. An expert appraiser must not only know the compliance standards for a given real estate market, but also monitor their development trends in order to anticipate the future value of the property being valued.

The principle of supply and demand.

Demand for a property is a real need for them. Supply is the number of objects available on the real estate market and the limited supply of it.

The essence of the principle of supply and demand is to identify the relationship between the need for a property and the limited supply of it.

Demand for a property is determined by its usefulness (the ability to meet the needs of the user) and availability, but is limited by the solvency of potential consumers. The lower the demand and the higher the supply, the lower the cost of the object. Conversely, if demand and supply are balanced in the real estate market, the market value of the object will stabilize.

Expert appraisers should remember that, as a rule, demand for real estate objects is more subject to fluctuations than supply, since a sharp change in the money supply (for example, as a result of the bankruptcy of financial companies) and emotional moods at the time of a real estate transaction, etc. occur in shorter time periods than the construction of real estate, which creates additional supply on the market. Knowledge of this ability in the ratio of supply and demand allows an expert appraiser to more accurately predict the value of a property.

For residential premises, the ratio of supply and demand depends on the demographic composition of the population, the level of prices for real estate and consumer goods, the intensity of the advertising campaign, new laws and regulations, the cost of loans, property taxation and other factors.

The expert appraiser must predict the ratio of supply and demand for the property being valued, determine the degree of influence of this ratio and all of the above factors on the value of real estate.

The principle of competition.

Competition is rivalry, competition in any kind of activity. All human beings are inherently competitive. Competition or rivalry increases dramatically when it comes to excess profits in some kind of activity. The real estate market is no exception in this respect. If super profits are made in the real estate market (this is a profit that is much higher than the usually formed level of profit in this sector of the market), entrepreneurs tend to get into this market. Increasing competition leads to an increase in supply in the market. If demand does not increase, real estate prices in this case decrease, and the profit of entrepreneurs decreases. Conversely, when competition weakens, supply decreases and, if demand does not decrease, prices for real estate objects and entrepreneurs' profits rise.

Reasonable competition stimulates the improvement of the quality of objects and services in the real estate market, while excessive competition leads to a decrease in profits.

In the absence of competition in the real estate market (and this happens with monopoly competition), the market value of an object cannot be determined, since the market value is formed only in a competitive market.

The principle of change.

Both the property itself (for example, physical wear and tear) and all environmental factors affecting the value of the property are subject to change.

The most characteristic types of changes are the so-called cycles of life. These changes also affect the real estate objects themselves, as well as districts (cities), industries, and society as a whole.

The following main cycles of life are distinguished.

1. Origin (design, construction of an object, formation of an industry, region, etc.).

2. Growth (a period of growth in income from the operation of a real estate object, the rapid development of a district (city), industry, etc.).

3. Stability, equilibrium period (stable income, formed tastes of consumers of real estate objects, formed infrastructure of the area, etc.).

4. Decline (a period of decrease in demand for real estate, a decrease in profits, a decline in production in the industry, etc.).

Taking into account life cycles, an expert appraiser must analyze and predict legislative, demographic, international, scientific and technical, urban and social processes, as well as the reaction of the real estate market to them.

The principle of best and most efficient use

The principle of the highest and best use is formulated as follows: it is the reasonable and possible use of it, providing the highest current value of the object on the effective date of valuation.

Another definition of this principle is also known: it is such an option for using a property, selected among reasonable and possible ones, which leads to the highest value of land. Such a definition of the principle usually refers to the assessment of buildings and structures with significant wear, as well as the assessment of free land.

If the cost of a building (construction) is determined, then when evaluating this type of real estate, one should be guided by the first definition of the principle of the best and most efficient use. In this case, when choosing possible options for using this object, it is possible to exclude the option adopted at the time of assessment, since such use of real estate is limited to a time period until the value of the land plot at its best and most efficient use exceeds the value of the entire property complex (land and buildings) combined with the costs of demolition of the building.

This principle is basic (basic) for the implementation of all three approaches to valuation, and its interpretation is of particular importance in each specific case, as it affects the choice of the type of value. When determining the most probable sale price of a property (the market value of the property), the following interpretation of this principle is most appropriate: “the most likely use of the existing property”, while in determining the investment value, the emphasis in the interpretation is on “the most efficient use of the property”.

Analysis of the best and most efficient use of the property is carried out in two stages: the first analyzes the best and most efficient use of the land, as if it were free, and the second - the best and most efficient use of the building (structure) located on this site .

1.5 Factors affecting property value

As in any other pricing mechanisms, the value of real estate depends on a set of objective and subjective factors, of which only the latter are related to the behavior of a particular seller, buyer and (or) intermediary at the stage of concluding a transaction. Subjective factors include, for example, temperament, knowledge, honesty, patience, personal likes and dislikes of participants in a real estate transaction, etc. Within the framework of my diploma, these factors related to the field of psychology are not considered, and the main attention is paid to objective factors and their influence on the valuation of real estate.

Objective factors are mainly economic, ultimately determining the average price level of specific transactions.

Economic factors are divided into macroeconomic and microeconomic. The first include factors related to the general market situation: the initial level of security of demand for real estate in the region; volumes and structure of new construction and reconstruction; migration factors; legal and economic conditions of transactions (taxes, duties, etc.); level and dynamics of inflation. Macroeconomic factors also include long-term factors: the difference in the dynamics of prices for goods (services) and wage conditions, affecting the scale of accumulation of funds and the amount of deferred demand; the pace and scale of the formation of a new social stratum of "rich people" who have the opportunity to invest in real estate; development of a system of foreign missions in the region, etc.

CHAPTER 2. ASSESSMENT OF THE OBJECT OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

2.1 Description of the property

The object of assessment is a separate apartment, consisting of two living rooms.

The purpose of the appraisal is to determine the value of the above property.

The real estate object is understood as the actual object, which is real property, and the legal rights to it.

The act of inspection of the object

Object address: Russia, Novosibirsk, Krasny prospect, 171/2, apt. 27. Owner: Abramenko N.I. BTI certificates No. 78965784. The apartment is privatized.

The object is located along the metro line (on the right bank), the transport network is well developed. To the metro station "Zaeltsovskaya" 10 min. on foot. Nearby are the exhibition center "Siberian Fair", a casino, a nightclub, a hairdresser's, a sports and fitness center, a cultural center "Energy", a cinema "Progress-Kinomir", a 10-minute walk from the Botanical Garden.

The nearest micro market is located 10 minutes walk.

An analysis of the location area allows you to give a high assessment of the labor market in the area in which the object of assessment is located. Proximity to shops, educational institutions is rated satisfactorily. The quality of communal services, as well as services for the protection of public order, is assessed as satisfactory.

Kindergarten, clinic are 5 minutes from home, schools are quite remote (15 - 20 minutes).

Environmental conditions are poor due to the proximity of factories - the Novosibirsk Electrovacuum Plant, the Ekran plant, the plant named after. Lenin, Novosibirsk Semiconductor Plant.

Characteristics of the house.

Wall material - panel. The total number of floors is 5. The height of the floors is 2.2 m. The house is removed from the roadway, located in the yards.

Year of construction - 1975. The general appearance of the building is good.

Water supply - central, heating - central, ventilation - natural, energy supply - central.

Information about the apartment:

Two-room apartment is located on the 2nd floor of the house. The total area of the apartment is 42 sq. m, living area - 28 sq. m (one room - 18 sq.m, the second - 10 sq.m). The kitchen area is 6 square meters. m, the bathroom occupies 3.5 sq.m. The apartment has a balcony, telephone. Windows are oriented to the west. The general view of the apartment is satisfactory.

The layout of the apartment and the scheme of its location in the entrance are presented in Appendix 1.

Thus, the analysis of the location and state of the object in the first approximation allows us to talk about a fairly high cost of the object.

The assessment was made in accordance with the following assumptions:

A special examination of engineering networks was not carried out;

The object of appraisal does not have any hidden defects, including defects in the supporting frame of the building, which could affect its value;

The property complies with all sanitary and environmental standards;

Reliable sources of information were used in the assessment.

2.2 Valuation of residential property using the income approach

Real estate valuation by direct capitalization method

To calculate the capitalization rate for residential property valuation purposes, the simplified Elwood method should be used.

R= Υ - App * (SFS) = CHOD / TS, (1.1)

where R - capitalization rate;

Υ - rate of return on equity;

App - possible increase in the value of property for the period;

SFS is the repayment factor at the rate Υ for the projected holding period;

CHOD - net operating income;

TC is the present value.

Net operating income can be determined using the following formula:

CHOD \u003d EVD - PR, (1.2)

where EI is the effective gross income, which is defined as follows:

EVD \u003d PVD - PP + DD, (1.3)

where PVH is the potential gross income for 1 year, assuming that the object is fully leased,

PP - estimated losses from unemployment opportunities (3%),

DD - other income.

Υ - represents the real income that suits the typical investor.

The fund repayment rate is determined by the following formula:

SFS= i / (l+i)n-1 , (1.4)

where n is the number of periods;

i - discount rate (rate of return on equity).

Using the direct capitalization method, we will determine the cost of a two-room apartment acquired in order to receive rental income with subsequent sale.

Rent - 12000 rubles. / month Possible downtime - 3% Operating costs - 1200 rubles. /month The rate of return on equity is 15%. The tenure is 5 years. The planned cost increase is 40%.

The repayment rate under the indicated conditions will be 0.086:

SFS = 0.15 / (1+ 0.15) 5-1 = 0.086.

Then the capitalization rate will be equal to 0.1583:

R = 0.15 - 0.40 * 0.139 = 0.0944.

The effective gross income calculated by formula (1.3) will be equal to 139680 rubles:

EVD \u003d 12000 * 12 - 12000 * 12 * 0.03 \u003d 139680 rubles.

Net operating income from owning a property under these conditions will be 125,280 rubles:

CHOD \u003d 139680 - 1200 * 12 \u003d 125280 rubles.

The current value of the property can be determined by the formula:

TS = CHOD / R, (1.5)

where R - capitalization rate;

CHOD - net operating income from the ownership of a property.

So, the current value of the assessed residential property will be 1,327,118.6 rubles:

TS \u003d 125280 / 0.0944 \u003d 1327118.6 pyb.

At the next stage of the assessment, we will determine the value of the object by discounting future income.

Discounting future income is a method used to evaluate income-generating real estate objects as a current value, expected future benefits from owning an object.

The future benefits of real estate transactions are as follows:

The frequency of receipt in the form of net operating income during the ownership of the facility;

Reversion - proceeds from the sale of the object after the expiration of the holding period.

The current value of the property is determined as follows:

TS = TS (PPD) + TS (P), (1.6)

where PPD is the frequency of income flows;

Ρ - reversion;

TC is the present value.

The value of an item, calculated using the discounted future earnings method, is the present value of all future cash flows and reversals, taking into account the degree of risk and alternative use cases.

The methodology for calculating the cost according to the proposed method is as follows.

Stage 1. Forecast of future income stream and estimated resale value of the property:

Determining the value of the forecast period;

Determining the frequency of receipt of income.

The net operating income (NOR) is used as the forecast base.

Reversion calculation, i.e. proceeds from the sale of an object, is made taking into account possible changes in the value of the property. Costs associated with sales costs are deducted from the reversion cost.

Stage 2. Discount rate calculation.

The discount rate is a factor used to calculate the present value of an amount of money received in the future.

The discount rate shows the effectiveness of capital investments, taking into account the risk of obtaining the planned amount. The discount rate is chosen as the average rate of return that investors expect to receive on their capital investments in similar properties in a given market.

Since the discount rate directly depends on the risk, it is determined by how high the average investor assesses the level of risk associated with investing money in this property.

Therefore, the higher the level of risk, the higher the discount rate and, accordingly, the present value of future income is less and less than the current value of real estate.

Stage 3. Converting the future value of cash flows to present value using the compound interest technique.

СР = ТС ± Δ = ТС (1 + j), (1.7)

where Δ - increase or decrease in the value of the object;

СР - cost of reversion;

J - the share of changes in the value of the object for the reporting period (0.4).

The current value of the property is calculated using the following formula:

where i - rate of return on equity;

n - forecast period.

Net operating income was calculated above using the direct capitalization method and amounted to 125,280 rubles for the property being valued.

Assume that we will receive income from the operation of a real estate object with a frequency of 1 time per year. In this case, the current value of the property will be 1346178 rubles:

TC = 125280 / (1+ 0.15) + 125280 / (1 + 0.15)2 + 125280 / (1+ 0.15)3 +

125280 / (1+ 0,15)4 + 125280 / (1+ 0,15)5 +

TS * (1+0.4) / (1+0.15)5 =

108939 + 94909 + 82967 + 72416 + 63273 + TS * 0.696

TC = 1346178 rubles.

During the assessment, it is possible to estimate the future value of cash flows from the property.

SR \u003d 1346178 * (1 + 0.4) \u003d 1884649 rubles,

Thus, after 5 years, the appraised apartment can be sold for 1,884,649 rubles.

2.3 Valuation of residential real estate by comparing sales of analogues

The essence of the approach is to compare the property being valued with other properties that have been put up for sale.

The fundamental principle of the comparative approach to real estate valuation is the principle of substitution. It says that if there are several similar properties on the market, a rational buyer will not pay for an object more than the amount that it would cost to acquire another property of similar utility.

Assessment steps:

1. market research;

2. collection and verification of data;

3. analysis and comparison of data;

4. amending;

5. data reconciliation.

Market research is conducted to identify those comparable sales and properties for sale that are similar to the property being valued.

Each sale used as comparable in the appraisal report must be personally verified by the appraiser.

It is necessary to compare each object with the one being evaluated and analyze the differences:

Date of sale;

Physical characteristics;

Location;

Terms of sale.

The next step in the assessment is making adjustments. The essence of this stage is to adjust the selling prices or asking prices for each comparable object in accordance with the existing differences.

Value adjustments change the price of the sold object of the analogue by a certain amount, in which the differences in the characteristics of the object of the analogue and the object being valued are estimated.

Percentage adjustments are used to correct for differences related to transaction time, location, and physical characteristics.

successive amendments. Their peculiarity lies in the fact that, depending on the sequence of making percentage adjustments, a different result can be obtained.

Cumulative corrections are obtained by multiplying all individual corrections. In this case, the sequence is not required.

The final value is a judgment made by the appraiser based on an analysis of all available information. Simple averaging does not always lead to an accurate result, and moreover, it is not always necessary to choose one number as the cost indicator. Using a range of values is more correct.

To apply the method of comparing market analogues, it is necessary to collect data on ten two-room apartments offered for sale in the Zaeltsovsky district (Siberian Fair, Botanical Garden). Data on similar apartments are presented in the table in table 1 in Appendix 2.

Each of the ten presented apartments must be characterized by the coefficients of the cost method and the results summarized in a table.

The ratio of the total and living area of the apartment Ksozh - takes into account the ratio of the total area of the apartment and its living area. It is taken equal to:

0.95 - ratio less than 1.50

1.00 - ratio from 1.50 to 1.66

1.05 - ratio from 1.66 to 2.00

1.10 - over 2.00.

The coefficient of the presence of a balcony or loggia Kbl:

If there is a balcony, this coefficient is 1.00;

In the presence of a loggia - 1.05;

In their absence - 0.95;

if there are two or more balconies or loggias - 1.10.

The Kat floor coefficient in the event that the apartment is located on the first or last floor of the building is 0.90. In all other cases - 1.00.

The isolation coefficient of the Kiz rooms is taken equal to:

1.04 - all rooms are isolated;

0.96 - adjoining rooms in two-room apartments, or more than one walk-through room in 3-6 room apartments;

1.00 - in all other cases.

The availability coefficient of the elevator Cliff is taken equal to:

1.03 - there is an elevator in houses with 5 or less floors;

1.00 - there is an elevator in houses with more than 5 floors, or not in houses with 5 or less floors;

0.97 - there is no elevator in houses with more than 5 floors.

The coefficient of the height of the premises Kvys is equal to:

0.98 - the height of the premises is less than 2.5 m;

1.00 - the height of the premises from 2.50 m to 2.80 m;

1.02 - the height of the premises from 2.80 m to 3.00 m;

1.04 - height of premises from 3.00 to 3.40 m;

1.06 - the height of the premises is over 3.40 m.

The coefficient of availability of the garbage chute K mus is taken equal to:

1.02 - available in houses with less than 5 floors;

0.97 - not in houses with more than 5 floors;

1.00 - in other cases.

Coefficient taking into account the area of \u200b\u200bthe kitchen Kk:

0.95 - with a kitchen area of up to 6 square meters. m;

1.00 - with an area of 6 sq. m to 9 sq. m

1.02 - with an area of 9 sq. m to 12 sq. m;

1.10 - over 12 sq. m.

The values of the coefficients for each property are presented in Table 2 in Appendix 2. The equivalent cost of a two-room apartment, calculated in Table 2, is the cost of a two-room apartment in a five-storey building with a ratio of total and living area from 1.5 to 1.66, with a balcony, on the middle floor, ceiling height more than 2.5 m, without a garbage chute, kitchen area from 6 to 9 m.

Multiplying the arithmetic average cost for ten apartments by the total area of the appraised apartment and dividing by the corrective coefficients for the appraised apartment, we get the real market price of the apartment, which will be 2410714:

54 thousand rubles * 42 / (1.0 * 1.0 * 1.0 * 0.96 * 1.0 * 0.98 * 1.0 * 1.0) =

Thus, as a result of evaluating the property under study by the comparative method, it was found that the market price of a two-room apartment is 2,410,714 rubles.

2.4 Property valuation using the cost approach

According to the cost approach, the value of a property is determined by the amount of resources spent on its reproduction or replacement, taking into account physical and obsolescence.

It is rather difficult to assess the cost of an apartment using the cost approach, since it is quite difficult to estimate the costs of building one apartment, to separate their costs for the construction of a residential building as a whole.

We will evaluate the cost of the object using the cost approach on the assumption that the costs of building a house are distributed in proportion to the total area of apartments. This assumption is conditional, but, nevertheless, it will allow you to get an approximate estimate of the cost of an apartment using a cost approach.

So, it is known that the construction company LLC "Promstroy - D" plans to build a residential building on the street. Airport (in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk, in the immediate vicinity of the house where the appraisal is located). LLC "Promstroy - D" received the right to design and build this house on a plot with a total area of 3 thousand 298 square meters. m. The appraisal of the market value of the land plot and the cost of building a residential building by order of the investor was carried out by Praktika LLC. According to the pre-project documentation, the total usable area of apartments in a 5-storey building will be 3,262 sq. m. m. The residential building will include 75 apartments.

According to the experts of Praktika LLC, the cost of building a house will amount to 10 million 640 thousand rubles. In this case, the construction costs of 1 sq. m. of the total area will amount to 3261.8 rubles.

The total area of the property under appraisal is 42 sq. m. m. Thus, in accordance with the cost approach, the cost of restoring the object will be 136,995.6 rubles. (3261.8 rubles * 42 sq. m).

Replacement cost should be determined taking into account accumulated depreciation. The useful life of a residential building is 40 years. Depreciation on the appraised object is 30 years. Thus, when assessing, it is necessary to take into account 10/40 of the replacement cost of the object.

Estimating the value of the object by the cost approach will be:

RUB 136,995.6 * 10 / 40 \u003d 34248.9 rubles.

2.5 Reconciliation of residential real estate appraisal results

To evaluate a residential real estate object - a two-room apartment located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk - the methods of income and comparative approaches were used, according to which the following results were obtained:

1. According to the method of comparing sales of analogues, the cost of the object is 2410714 rubles.

2. As part of the income approach:

3. In accordance with the cost approach, the cost of the object will be 34248.9 rubles.

The determination of liquidation value is quite rare in Russian valuation practice, which affects the low level of methodological support for this type of valuation.

The only factor that affects the value of the liquidation value and distinguishes it from the market value is the “forced sale” factor, which is typical for non-market conditions for the sale of real estate.

Thus, it becomes quite obvious that in order to calculate the salvage value in the current Russian conditions, it is possible to use the following equation:

Slick. = Sryn. x (1 - Kvyn.),

where is slick. - salvage value of real estate;

Sryn. - market value of the object under study;

Kvyn. - correction for forced sale, provided 0< Квын. < 1.

According to the above equation, salvage value is calculated in two steps. At the first stage, the market value of the studied property is determined. At the second stage, the value of the adjustment for the forced sale is calculated and included in the value of the market value, that is, the market value is adjusted for the "forced sale" factor (for non-market conditions of sale).

If the calculation of the market value of real estate does not cause difficulties, then the definition of an adjustment for the forced sale and its mathematical justification raises many questions. In practice, appraisers accept it intuitively in the range from 0.1 to 0.3 (10 - 30% of the market value).

So, in the case of a value of the adjustment coefficient at the level of 10%, the salvage value of a residential property will be:

Slick = 2410714 rubles. x (1 - 0.1) = 2169642.6 rubles.

If the value of the adjustment coefficient is at the level of 30%, the salvage value of the residential property will be:

Slick = 2410714 rubles. x (1 - 0.3) = 1687499.8 rubles.

So, in general, we can conclude that the liquidation value of the property will be from 70 to 90% of its market value and will range from 1,687,499.8 thousand rubles. up to 2169642.6 thousand rubles.

Thus, it is clear that the price of the apartment in the four options turned out to be different. To determine which price most accurately reflects the value of an object, it is necessary to know the purpose of the valuation, since the purpose of the valuation determines the choice of determining the value.

If the purpose of the assessment is to determine the value of an object acquired for the purpose of making a profit in the form of periodic income with subsequent sale, then one should focus on the figure obtained in the income method (1327118.6 rubles - 1346178 rubles)

If the purpose of the assessment is to determine the real market value of the object, while there is enough information on the sales prices of similar objects, then the cost of the apartment should be taken as the figure obtained by comparing market analogues (2410714 rubles).

If the purpose of the appraisal is to determine the value of an apartment that serves as collateral for obtaining a mortgage loan, then the liquidation value is the most appropriate, since the sale of the appraisal object in the event of non-fulfillment of the loan agreement must be ensured in a fairly short time. Thus, as the value of the property, a value in the range of 1,687,499.8 thousand rubles should be taken. up to 216942.6 thousand rubles.

CHAPTER 3. SUGGESTIONS TO IMPROVE REAL ESTATE APPRAISAL METHODS

residential property appraisal value

In general, the first chapter is devoted to a greater extent to the theoretical foundations, the basic categories associated with real estate valuation.

The second chapter of the work presents the results of real estate appraisal from the standpoint of three approaches to determining the market value: appraisal in terms of costs (cost approach), appraisal by direct comparison of sales (comparative approach), appraisal in terms of expected or actual income (income approach) .

When comparing the results of the assessment, it was found that all approaches give different results. Let us consider the main directions for improving the presented approaches to real estate valuation.

In modern appraisal practice, the technology of carrying out replacement cost calculations using UPVS collections is often used. The use of these collections began in 1997, when market information on real estate objects was practically absent, and the use of these collections was the only way to determine the “market value”, mainly for the revaluation of fixed assets. In the last decade, there have been great changes in the information support of the real estate market and budgeting. The Gosstroy of the Russian Federation has switched to a new estimate and regulatory framework. Decree of the Gosstroy of Russia No. 16 dated April 08, 2002 “On measures to complete the transition to a new estimated and regulatory base for pricing in construction” canceled from 01/01/2003 the regulatory documents of the Gosstroy of the USSR, drawn up at the price level provided for by the estimated and regulatory bases of 1991. and 1984. Instead of them, state elemental estimated norms (GESN) and federal unit prices (FER) are introduced. Gosstroy of Russia approved and put into effect:

· GESNr-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for repair and construction works";

· GESN-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for general construction works";

GESNm-2001 "State elemental estimated norms for equipment installation"

HPES are designed to determine the composition and the need for resources necessary to perform construction work at facilities, prepare cost estimates (estimates) using the resource method, as well as to pay for work performed and write off materials.

Gosstroy of Russia develops Federal unit prices (FER, FERr and FERm) only for the Moscow region. Further, the prices for the Moscow Region are transferred by Gosstroy to the Regional Centers for pricing in construction to link prices to regional conditions. After binding, the collections of prices are sent back to Gosstroy for their further approval. Currently, the process of developing a new regulatory framework has not yet been completed. Conducting real estate valuation based on the new regulatory framework is a very complex and time-consuming task that requires special knowledge and skills. In order for the new regulatory framework to enter into the practice of valuation, it is necessary to carry out a set of works on the development of software and computing systems adapted to solving applied problems of real estate valuation.

Recently, regional centers for pricing in construction have begun to work actively, firms specializing in the provision of information services have appeared, for example, NPF Center for Information Technologies in Construction.

And only real estate appraisers still use long-outdated collections of the 70s of the last century and at the same time justify the “market value” of objects on their basis. Experienced appraisers have long understood the shortcomings of the use of UPVS collections, primarily related to the list of costs included in unit prices, average indexation, inconsistency in technologies, the ratio of the scope of work, etc.

So, in the collections of UPVS, the following cost items are taken into account:

· direct costs;

overhead costs;

Planned savings (profit);

general site costs for the allocation and development of the construction site;

cost of design and survey work;

costs associated with the production of work in the winter;

The cost of premium wages

the cost of maintaining the directorate of a standing enterprise;

· losses from the liquidation of temporary buildings and structures;

· the cost of transporting workers over a distance of more than 3 km. in the absence of public transport;

· the cost of paying employees bonuses for the mobile nature of work.

Experienced appraisers in their calculations use their own developments based on adjustments to analogues or consolidated estimates.

In the work of P.G. Grabovoi, S.P. Korostelev “Property appraisal, Part I. Real estate appraisal”, it is shown on a specific example that the results of calculating the replacement cost of residential real estate using the methodology of the UPVS significantly, several times, differ from market indicators.

However, in the majority of reports reviewed by the Expert Council of the Russian Society of Appraisers, the assessment of the market value of real estate is still based on outdated UPVS. Moreover, in order to somehow bring the results of these calculations closer to market indicators, a certain multiplying factor is introduced into them, which is called “entrepreneur's profit”. It is accepted absolutely arbitrarily, since it is not possible to remove this indicator from the market in modern conditions. It should be emphasized here that, in accordance with IVS-2003, “the application of market value requires the conclusion of a valuation solely on the basis of market data”. When applying the RSA, the appraiser determines unequivocally a non-market value, which should be reflected in the report.

In Russia, there is still no reliable information base on the aggregated basic indicators of the cost of construction, which are available from Western appraisers (following the example of WESSEXS, LAXTONS, R.S.MEANS).

Currently, the main recognized information base for real estate valuation are the developments of Co-Invest LLC. This firm quarterly publishes the bulletin "Price Indices in Construction", as well as the series "Appraiser's Handbook": "Industrial buildings", "Residential buildings", "Collections of purchasing power parities of currencies in national construction markets", "Handbook of the replacement cost of buildings and structures in current price level, etc.

When using these publications, it must be remembered that most of their calculations are based on the normative base of the planned economy, indexed by certain price coefficients and, therefore, the final results of the assessment may have a significant error for the reasons stated above. When applying certain indices, it is necessary to carefully study the prerequisites for their calculation.

Recently published and announced as the first in the country, expected by appraisers, the Regional Guide to Construction Costs (RCC-2006). It provides cost indicators by type of construction work, aggregated cost indicators (CSI) and "information for assessing the required amount of investment in the express option." In fact, the latter definition refers to the estimated cost of objects-analogues of modern buildings and structures. Part III of the RCC contains "analogue objects with technical and economic indicators of structural elements, analogous objects with technical and economic indicators for the object as a whole and a summary table of technical and economic indicators recommended for determining the cost of residential buildings and social and cultural facilities." Cost indicators are defined in prices as of 01.01.2006 for the "Moscow region". The directory includes cost indicators for 18 types of modern residential buildings and 27 non-residential real estate. In RCC-2007 this list of objects has been significantly expanded.

The publication of RCC creates the conditions for its application in real estate and business valuation procedures. If in real estate appraisal it is possible to use part II of the handbook "Aggregated value indicators", then in the cost approach of business appraisal it is possible to use part III "Objects-analogues of buildings and structures".

Thus, RCC collections should become the basic basis for real estate valuation. However, there are significant shortcomings of these collections. The main one is that they do not provide the initial data and the main assumptions of the obtained values of the cost of analogues. So, it is not entirely clear what specific composition of the equipment is taken into account in the final indicators, what was included in the builder's other costs, etc. The joint work of estimators, analysts and appraisers in the direction of improving the RCC can lead to the creation of an information base that is so necessary for real estate appraisers.

The main direction in the development of appraisal activity is currently becoming the appraisal of the market value of real estate. This becomes possible due to the fact that our country is accumulating a database of the actual market value of real estate.

In order to simplify the process of appraisal of residential real estate in appraisal agencies, a regression model of the cost of an apartment can be used, which allows you to calculate the cost of a residential property depending on a number of its parameters.

An example of building such a model is given in the magazine "Real Estate" for December 2005. The model was built according to the price lists of several real estate companies that are engaged in the implementation of housing of various consumer characteristics in various districts of the city of Novosibirsk. For the analysis, information was collected on 450 apartments (150 options for each type of apartment - one-, two-, three-room) according to the following parameters:

The cost of the apartment

The area in which the property is located

Ownership type:

public housing,

Housing acquired under a privatization agreement,

Property purchased under a sale and purchase agreement

Material of the house where the apartment is located:

Panel, brick, monolith,

House type:

Elite,

improved layout,

typical,

full size,

- "Khrushchev",

storey of the house,

The floor on which the apartment is located,

The total area of the apartment,

living area of the apartment,

kitchen area,

The presence of a balcony or loggia,

Having a phone.

Let us consider in detail the procedure for building a model using the example of one-room apartments.

At the first stage of building the model, the matrix of correlation coefficients was analyzed in order to identify parameters that strongly depend on each other. The main task was to select such factors, the correlation coefficient for which would not exceed the value of 0.8. Based on the results of the analysis, a matrix of correlation coefficients was built, which takes into account 6 factors, that is, exactly half of those initially collected, since the remaining factors did not satisfy the condition imposed on the correlation coefficient.

Based on the collected data on the selected factors, the following regression model was built:

Ρ = -10.12 + 9.24 Stotal + 35.62 * x1 - 21.17 * x2 + 15.07 * x3 +

65 * x4 + 64.48 * x5 (3.1)

or in general:

Ρ= -a0 + asStot + a1x1 + arr + a3x3 + a4x4 + a5x5 (3.2)

The following notation is used in the presented equation:

Ρ is the price of an apartment with fixed parameters defined below,

Stot - the total area of the apartment,

x1 is a dummy variable characterizing the area in which the apartment is located,

x2 is a dummy variable characterizing the material of the house where the apartment is located;

x3 is a variable that characterizes the number of storeys of the building in which the appraised apartment is located;

x4 is a dummy variable characterizing the floor on which the apartment is located;

x5 is a dummy variable characterizing the presence of a telephone in the apartment.

Statistical indicators for this model confirmed the significance of the results obtained.

Thus, the resulting model very well reflects the dependence of the average cost of apartments on its parameters in the housing market of the city of Novosibirsk (without taking into account extreme options).

The presented models were put into practice in the real estate agencies of the city of Novosibirsk "Zhilfond" and "Amir - Real Estate", which have full-time employees for assessing the cost of apartments for sale, and also acting as collateral in loan agreements. It should be noted that experts highly appreciated the effectiveness of their application.

The second important problem appraisers face is predicting the value of an apartment in the future. This problem becomes especially relevant when assessing the cost of an apartment for mortgage purposes, since the sale of an apartment will take place in the future, and it is important to determine the rate of growth in the cost of an apartment for the period of a loan agreement.

The initial data for building a model of price dynamics in the secondary housing market were taken from the Real Estate magazines by quarters of the corresponding years. For each year, information was collected on 240 apartments - 80 for each type of apartment (one-, two-, three-room apartments). . The main purpose of building the model is to determine the model for changing the prices of real estate in the secondary market.

The structure of the collected data on apartments is shown in fig. 2.1, 2.2, 2.3.

Rice. 2.1. The structure of apartments considered when building the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.2. The structure of apartments considered when building the model, by type of housing

Rice. 2.3. The structure of the apartments considered when building the model, by the type of material of the house

The temporal analysis of economic phenomena distinguishes between different types of evolution.

1. Trend, trend or long-term movement. There is no strict definition of a trend, it is revealed intuitively. A trend corresponds to a slow change in some particular direction that persists over a long period of time.

2. Cycle, short-term component - fast quasi-periodic movement, in which there is an increase phase and a decrease phase.

3. Seasonal component - changes that occur regularly, as opposed to a cycle.

4. Random fluctuations, effects - chaotic movement of a relatively high frequency, which has a more or less constant character.

Some statistical series represent one or another type of evolution in its pure form, but most of them are a combination of all or individual components.

Theoretically, a series of price dynamics is a combination of trend, seasonal component and random fluctuations. At the present stage of development of the real estate market, the seasonal component of the price of an apartment is disrupted, which is due to high rates of price growth and the investment attractiveness of the market in question. That is why special attention was paid to highlighting the trend in the dynamic series under consideration.

According to the series of dynamics of prices for apartments, the following model was built.

Polynomial of the second degree:

yi = a + bt2, (3.3)

where i - apartment type,

t - time period.

It should be noted that, in accordance with the criteria used in statistics, the correlation coefficient should be close to 1 (exceed 0.7), the significance factor F should be less than 0.03 (for the given model parameters).

Thus, the obtained models reflect well the dynamics of prices in the secondary housing market of the city of Novosibirsk.

According to the obtained model, the growth in the cost of one-room apartments should have been 22.0% in 2006, while the actual growth in cost was 24.3%.

According to this model, the growth in the cost of a two-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 was supposed to be 21.7%, while in fact the growth rate was 21.6%.

In accordance with the presented model, the growth in the cost of a three-room apartment in the city of Novosibirsk in 2006 was supposed to be 21.5%, while in fact the growth rate was 31.0%.

Substituting real data on the cost per square meter of apartments in the city of Novosibirsk in each quarter of 2006, it can be noted that this value falls within the boundaries of the confidence intervals built according to the model.

According to experts, the resulting model adequately describes the current situation in the real estate market at the moment. The forecast for growth in the cost of housing by the end of 2006 for certain types of apartments coincides with real data, since the growth of the market predicted by experts is 20-30%.

The appraiser is constantly faced with the problem of predicting the cost of apartments, this problem is especially acute when assessing for lending purposes. The correctness of the decision depends on the experience, qualifications of the specialist, as well as on the quality of the collected data on the market of the object being evaluated. The use of the proposed statistical models in the work of specialists will help improve the accuracy of forecasts, as well as the quality of residential real estate valuation.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of the study, the following conclusions can be drawn.

There are three approaches to the valuation of real estate objects.

The income approach consists in determining the value of the property being valued based on the amount of income that it can generate in the future, and is most often used to evaluate commercial real estate.

The cost approach determines the cost based on the construction costs of a similar object (the cost of materials, transportation costs, etc.), and is based on the fact that the value of the object being assessed cannot be higher.

The method of comparing sales (comparative approach) consists in finding the closest analogues to the valued object and making adjustments to their value, taking into account the differences between them and the valued object. This approach is the main one in the evaluation of residential real estate, as there is a sufficient number of proposals for the sale of residential premises on the market for a correct assessment.

The purpose of the assessment presented in the practical part of the work was to determine the market value of an apartment consisting of two living rooms, located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk

To evaluate a residential real estate object - a two-room apartment located in the Zaeltsovsky district of Novosibirsk - the methods of income, cost and comparative approaches were used, according to which the following results were obtained.

According to the method of comparing market analogues, the cost of the object is 2410714 rubles.

As part of the income approach:

According to the method of direct capitalization, the cost of the apartment will be 1,327,118.6 rubles;

According to the method of discounting future income - 1346178 rubles.

According to the cost approach, the cost of the object will be 34248.9 rubles.

In accordance with the methodology for determining the liquidation value of an object, the cost of a two-room apartment in the Zaeltsovsky district will range from 1,687,499.8 thousand rubles. up to 2169642.6 thousand rubles.

The improvement of the cost approach to the valuation of residential real estate consists in the development of documents, collections, reflecting the real costs of the construction of similar objects, since the normative collections used by appraisers in the course of their work were published in the 70s. of the last century and have long been outdated, and the correction factors used in these approaches are not justified in any way.

The main direction of improving market approaches to valuation is the use of statistical models in the process of estimating the value of real estate objects.

The paper presents examples of a model for determining the value of a property based on a number of its qualitative characteristics, as well as a statistical model for predicting the value of a property after a certain period of time. It should be noted that this problem is especially relevant in the case of real estate appraisal for lending purposes, since in this case the real estate object is sold some time after the appraisal. The use of the proposed statistical models in the work of specialists will help improve the accuracy of forecasts, as well as the quality of residential real estate valuation.

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Annex 1

APARTMENT LAYOUT

LOCATION IN THE ENTRANCE

Appendix 2

Information on the sale of apartments similar to the property under appraisal in January 2006

No. p / p	Street	House type	Floor / number of floors	Total / living area	Kitchen	Balcony / loggia	Telephone	Isolated / adjoining rooms	Cost, thousand rubles	The cost of 1 sq. m., thousand rubles.
1	Red Avenue	Π	2/5	39/26	5,5	B	+	cm	2450	62,8
2	Dachnaya	Π	2/5	40/28	6	B	+	from	2200	55
3	Dm. Donskoy	Π	3/5	42/28	6,5	B	+	cm	2100	50
4	Dachnaya	Π	4/5	40/26	6	B	+	cm	2150	53,8
5	Red Avenue	Π	2/5	41/28	5,5	B	+	from	2650	64,6
6	Zhukovsky	P	4/5	44/28	6	B	+	cm	2350	53,4
7	spring	P	3/5	43/29	6,5	B	+	cm	2400	55,9
8	Dachnaya	P	2/5	42/28	6	B	+	cm	2300	54,8
9	Dachnaya	P	2/5	40/26	5,5	B	+	from	2150	53,8
10	Dm. Donskoy	P	3/5	44/29	6	B	+	cm	2100	47,7
11	Estimated object	P	2/5	42/28	6	B	+	cm	-	-

Determination of the value of real estate objects, taking into account corrective coefficients

№	ksozh	Kbl	Kat	keyes	cliff	Kvys	Kmus	Kk	The cost of 1 sq. m		Equiv. standing.
1	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	0,95	62,8		55,9
2	0,95	1,00	1,00	1,04	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	55		55,7
3	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	50		54,6
4	1,0	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	53,8		55
5	1,0	1,00	1,00	1,04	1,00	0,98	1,00	0,95	64,6		53,6
6	0,95	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	53,4		53,2
7	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	55,9		53,7
8	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	54,8		53,3
9	1,00	1,00	1,00	1,04	1,00	0,98	1,00	0,95	53,8		54,1
10	1,00	1,00	1,00	0,96	1,00	0,98	1,00	1,00	47,7		50,5
Arithmetic mean									55,9	54

It is easy to conclude that these bills cannot solve all the problems in the field of real estate valuation. So what other development paths can be proposed? First of all, it is necessary to create and adopt national standards for the valuation of real estate objects in the system of real civil and land-property relations, both mass and individual. Moreover, we need such standards that stand on a solid legal foundation, strictly and clearly describe all the stages of the assessment and the corresponding procedures for assessment work, and are not departmental instructions invented by officials for their own convenience. At the same time, special attention should be paid to overcoming the stereotypes of the actual practice of evaluation, which have already been mentioned. Otherwise, the actual practice of evaluation may remain captive to the old misconceptions. In order to create a solid scientific foundation for real estate valuation standards and rules, to make their text a document that would help practicing appraisers significantly improve the level and quality of their daily work, it is necessary to clearly formulate the general principles for formalizing valuation activities. At the same time, it is important not only to give their legal, economic, informational, organizational and methodological justification, but also to identify and generalize the real practical problems of Russian appraisers. Of course, the principles of structuring valuation standards should be based on the provisions of the current legislation and cover all aspects of valuation activities. This will also help to lay down, already at the level of the concept and structure of standards, the idea of their rational evolution as the current legislation improves and market institutions develop in the country. In turn, such structuring of standards and rules for real estate valuation will make it possible to make them not so much a “repressive” document, difficult to understand and more necessary for controlling officials than for practicing appraisers. The main task of the developers of standards is their organic integration into the system of training and retraining of personnel. In order to facilitate their use for a systematic increase in the level of training of appraisers, it is necessary to prepare detailed comments in advance for the main text of the standards, written according to certain canons, in a style that is not familiar to every practicing appraiser. This will not only facilitate the process of studying them, but also provide recommendations for solving practical problems that arise in any appraisal firm. That is, the preparation and adoption of standards and rules for appraisal in this form would also make it possible to create a system of continuous professional development of appraisers. It should be emphasized that standards and rules for real estate appraisal should become not only a “guiding document” for appraisers. They should be constructed in such a way as to ensure high manufacturability of practical work on assessment at a new level of requirements for its quality and reliability of results. Therefore, in parallel with the work on the most important sections of the standards and rules, research and development has been launched to create new information technologies and expert systems for the practical implementation of the most important standardized procedures for assessing real estate objects of any level of complexity. As a result of studying possible options for structuring the work of appraisers to optimize the content of standards and rules for real estate appraisal, the following four most important stages were identified: the first stage is the formation of an appraisal task, a formalized description of the appraisal object and the preparation of a system of initial data for appraisal that have the necessary legal status, coordination of a detailed task for evaluation; the second stage is a strict and scientifically substantiated formalization of the most important procedures for solving the assessment problem, control over the accumulation of errors in the process of logical analysis and calculations and obtaining the final result of the assessment; the third stage is the substantiation of the provisions of the most important structural sections of the assessment report according to the strict rules for its execution and the requirements for their content; the fourth stage is the examination of the results of the assessment according to clearly regulated procedures and the preparation of documentation based on its results. Each of these four stages is also structured according to certain types of work, the description of which is quite amenable to formalization. As a result, a description of 15-20 evaluation procedures is obtained, which includes approximately the same number of rather elementary operations of a logical and computational nature. The described system of structuring the most important stages and assessment procedures does not exhaust all areas of work on the scientific and methodological substantiation of assessment standards. This is not only about revealing the features of the application of international valuation standards, taking into account the specifics of national civil land, urban planning and other related legislation. Of course, it is very important to generalize the real practical experience accumulated by Russian appraisers. But no less important is the disclosure of the essence of the main macroeconomic processes of pricing real estate objects in combination with the most important aspects of the specific economic activity of subjects of land and property relations in the conditions of real law enforcement practice, mathematical models used in the assessment, as well as a description of modern information technologies for assessment. Such standards should be tested in the largest Russian self-regulatory associations of appraisers and improved accordingly. And national standards should be adopted only after they reflect the real positive practical experience of Russian appraisers. Modern standards are clearly not enough, because they do not specifically affect real estate, but cover valuation activities in general. As for the problems associated with the "shadow" economy, here the legislation on valuation activities is indispensable. Only strengthened tax control measures will help.

The real estate market, unlike the stock market, is more than far from perfect in many respects, which determines the features of its study. On the one hand, analysts are faced with difficulties, and sometimes the impossibility of correct and unambiguous formalization of economic relationships in the real estate market. On the other hand, it is obvious that there is no prospect of transferring analysis technologies used in other markets to the real estate market in their pure form, since these technologies are adapted for use in a different market environment. In view of the foregoing, high-quality analytical work in the real estate market seems to be a highly complex subject that requires the analyst, in addition to deep theoretical knowledge of real estate economics, constant practice and creative search in research that forms professional intuition.

Studying almost a century of history of the functioning of real estate markets in the developed countries of the world, one can come to the conclusion that insufficient attention paid to the quality of analytical work is one of the main causes of most major crises in the real estate markets. A typical example is the crisis in the US real estate market in the late 80s and early 90s. According to experts, excessive and indiscriminate investment in new construction has led to a glut of the market and, accordingly, lack of market demand for a large number of projects for which loans were issued. This situation was based on unrealistic market expectations stemming from the wrong structure of incentives in the analysis, weak analysis methodology and incomplete data characterizing the current conditions. The structure of incentives that guided developers, appraisers and credit organizations was deformed by the interest of some to receive loans, others to justify obtaining a loan, and still others to allocate their funds. At the same time, all parties solved their problems at the expense of unjustifiably optimistic expectations.

The use of weak analysis methodology, expressed in inadequate assumptions and procedures, in interaction with insufficiently high-quality data from local markets, as a rule, resulted in unsound market research and, accordingly, investment decisions based on them. As a result of the crisis, credit institutions have developed a stable syndrome of distrust in general to any projects and market research in particular. And this, in turn, led to the understanding that real estate market analysts in their work should be guided by some general principles that are necessary (but not sufficient) to obtain accurate conclusions and results. On the other hand, there is an urgent need for understandable and easily identifiable criteria that determine the compliance of market research with the category of validity.

Considering the prospects for the development of the real estate market in Russia, we can assume that the absence of potential crises is an overly optimistic scenario. However, the consequences of such crises may be less significant if already today, at the stage of active market development, some general principles and principles are formulated and implemented in everyday practice.

requirements for analytical studies, on the basis of which investment decisions will be made.

Not only the threat of crises, but also current daily problems - increasing competition, reduced opportunities for short-term super-profits, the start of long-term and capital-intensive commercial real estate development projects, the entry of foreign investors into the market with high requirements for justifying decisions, etc. - objectively testify to the fact that the importance of qualitative analysis in the real estate markets of Russia will become increasingly important in the near future.

2.2 Research of the real estate market for the purpose of substantiating investment decisions.

The ultimate goal of any study of the type under consideration is to measure the ratio of supply and demand for a specific type of product in the real estate market at a specific (usually future) point in time.

The special characteristics of real estate as a commodity, along with the special place of real estate in a market economy, form a fairly wide range of socio-economic information necessary for positioning this product on the market. Current and retrospective macroeconomic characteristics of the national and regional economy, socio-demographic indicators of the regional and local markets, parameters of the regional and local real estate markets - these are just the general areas in which it is necessary to conduct research.

Principle 1. For analysis, only that information should be selected that can really determine the future productivity of the investment object.

When following this principle, the main difficulty for the analyst is the lack of standard rules or unambiguous recommendations on which to form the initial information. It is here that the analyst must show all his knowledge, professional intuition, creativity and practical experience. Moreover, it is here that the basis for the consistency of the study as a whole is laid.

principle 2. All current and prospective data on which the study is based should be used in quantifying the performance of the real estate investment project under consideration.

However, even carefully selected information that is directly related to the subject of assessment is, figuratively speaking, a “bunch of bricks” from which the analyst must lay down a solid foundation for analytical research in accordance with all the rules of building art. And here you can not do without a strong solution that connects the individual elements into a single monolith.

Principle 3. All individual blocks of information selected to justify an investment decision should be interconnected by a clear logical scheme, ending with a forecast of future market conditions and the corresponding productivity of the project under consideration. The description of the logic circuit must be presented explicitly.

A positive perception by the customer of a report with the results of a market research, in which there is no logical scheme, can only be if:

a) the analyst takes advantage of the client's ignorance, or

b) the customer is initially favorable to the results.

On the other hand, the construction of a convincing and obvious logical scheme is a demonstration of the highest professional skill of the analyst.

Continuing the reasoning about the need to build a logical scheme of research, let's consider another principle that specifies the content of market analysis.

Principle 4. The content of market analysis should be reduced to a discussion of the factors that make up the main ratios for determining the performance of a commercial real estate object.

In accordance with this principle, the analyst in the course of the study must formulate the main relationships that determine the performance of the commercial facility, and then identify the hierarchy of parameters-arguments, the functions of which are the factors included in the main expression for performance.

Let us illustrate a practical approach to the implementation of this principle using the following simplified example.

Let the criterion for the performance of the project under consideration be the net operating income (NOI) in a specific period of the future. Then, by definition, the main expression for determining performance will have the following form:

NOI=PGI-V&L+M-FE-VE, Where

PGI- potential gross income,
V&L- losses from underloading and non-payments.
M I- Other income.
F.E.- Fixed operating expenses
VE- variable operating expenses.

Consider the procedure for identifying the parameters that determine the expected values of the main factors.

Potential Gross Revenue is determined by the value of the rental rate, which in turn is a function of the current rental rate, as well as trends in the ratio of market supply and demand over time.

property is a function of the cumulative market capacity, demand parameters, market absorption coefficient and the growth of the real estate absorption area. For projects, the projected load determines two indicators - the level of load and the time schedule for absorption by the market to this level.

Growth of real estate takeover area determined either by growth in the number of jobs (employment rate) or population growth. In turn, the expansion of the absorption area leads to the need for new real estate.

It should be noted that the growth of employment and population growth in one case can be directly related, for example, when new jobs are opened and the influx of new able-bodied people. In another case, population growth can grow without an increase in employment, for example, due to an increase in incoming pensioners or an increase in the birth rate. Qualitative analysis involves the use of several sources of information that provide historical trends and range growth projections, followed by data comparison. Segmentation of range growth is also mandatory, eg by age group, sex, family size, etc. The absence of these positions in the study should be attributed to the inconsistent choice of data for use in the analysis.

Demand parameters determined by such specific indicators as the area (office or production) per workplace, spending on purchases per capita, the number of apartments or houses per capita, etc. With the help of demand parameters, the amount of required real estate is calculated, which corresponds to the growth in the area of real estate consumption. For example, by applying average spending per purchase to population growth, retail sales are predicted to increase, and thus the need for additional retail space. When analyzing the housing market, population growth segmented by age, income, size or family composition is converted into segmented demand. A sound analysis of demand parameters involves the study of historical trends, the current state and forecasting their likely value in the future. Moreover, a consistent analysis measures the change in demand not only due to new range gains, but also due to changes in the existing population and employment structure. For example, during economic upswings, growing companies require large areas, and changes in the demographic situation towards an increase in people of retirement age will require an appropriate type of housing.

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