Closed economy(in its pure form) - an economy that is not included in the international division of labor, does not export or import goods and services, does not participate in the international movement of factors of production, stands outside international financial relations. It is an economic system in which all business transactions are carried out within the country and settlements are made in the national currency. In a closed economy, the country's foreign economic ties are either completely absent or strictly dosed, and foreign economic policy is clearly restrictive. It can be said that closed economy- an economy whose development is determined exclusively by internal trends and does not depend on trends that take place in the world economy. This economy is also called autarky. Autarky- economic isolation of a given country from other countries, the creation of a self-satisfying closed economy within a separate state. In its pure form, autarky manifested itself only in the conditions of a subsistence economy in pre-capitalist formations. In the modern era, a country may find itself in a state of autarky either due to external circumstances (an economic blockade against it, the imposition of economic sanctions), or due to the policy of autarky pursued by the state (for example, in conditions of preparation for war, which involves the creation of all kinds of obstacles to development economic relations with other countries). So, Germany, striving in the 1930s. to accumulate material resources in order to create an economic basis for waging aggressive wars, officially proclaimed autarky as its economic policy. In view of the economic blockade after the October Revolution and the Civil War, the USSR found itself in a situation of forced autarky, focusing on self-sufficiency in basic types of goods. Under such circumstances, the country's economic ties with other national economies were minimal, and all foreign economic transactions were carried out only through state foreign economic organizations. After the end of the Cold War, when autarky was generated by the political isolation of the country from the outside world, after the collapse of the socialist camp, the closed type of economy actually outlived itself.

The open economy model assumes the freedom of economic activity both within the country and abroad. open economy- an economy where all subjects of economic relations can carry out operations without restrictions on the international market of goods, services, capital and other factors of production. In contrast to a closed economy, there is freedom of foreign trade transactions, a free exchange rate is established, and regulation takes place through foreign exchange reserves and regulations. An open economy means that countries actively participate in MRI, export and import a significant share of manufactured goods and services, export factors of production (labor, capital, technology) and are free to import them, that countries receive and provide loans in the global financial markets and are included in system of international financial and economic relations. World experience shows that countries with a closed economy eventually become poorer than those that participate in world economic relations, since the former are isolated from new ideas and technologies, from foreign investment, information, etc. A specific feature of foreign economic policy in An open economy is the maximum use of the advantages of foreign economic activity in order to achieve the greatest efficiency in the functioning of the national economy. open economy excludes the state monopoly in the field of foreign trade and requires the active use of various forms of joint ventures, the organization of free enterprise zones, and also implies a reasonable accessibility of the domestic market for the influx of foreign capital, goods, technologies, information and labor.

The degree of openness of the economy largely depends on the availability of natural resources, on the size of the population, on the capacity of the domestic market and on the solvent demand of the population. In addition, the degree of openness of the economy will be determined by the reproductive and sectoral structure of the national economy. As practice shows, the greater the share of basic industries (metallurgy, energy) in the structure of industry, the less the relative involvement of the country in the international division of labor, the less the degree of openness of its economy. It can be said that the degree of openness of the country's economy is the higher, the more developed economic relations are in it, the more industries with a deep technological division of labor in its sectoral structure, the less its provision with its own natural resources.

According to the degree of openness of the economy, countries can be divided into the following groups: countries with a relatively closed economy (the share of exports is less than 10% of GDP); countries with a relatively open economy (the share of exports is more than 35% of GDP); countries located between the first two. Based on this criterion, the countries with the most open economies are Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland, with the least open - North Korea, Cuba.

However, the share of exports in GDP is not the only indicator of the openness of the economic system. The most commonly used indicators used to measure the degree of openness of the economy are:

1. Indicators characterizing the country's activity in world trade:

Coefficient of intra-industry international specialization:

The indicator ranges from -100 to +100 (in the first case, the country is exclusively importing this or that product, in the second - exclusively exporting this or that product). Indicators located between the extreme points characterize the degree of the country's involvement in intra-sectoral international specialization;

Export quota is an indicator that characterizes the importance of exports for the economy as a whole and for individual industries for certain types of products:

The increase in the export quota indicates both the growing participation of the country in the international division of labor, and the growth of the competitiveness of its products;

The import quota characterizes the importance of imports for the national economy and individual industries for various types of products:

The foreign trade quota is defined as the ratio of the combined value of exports and imports, divided in half, to the value of GDP as a percentage:

The structure of exports, i.e. the ratio or shares of exported goods by type and degree of their processing. Thus, a high share of products of manufacturing industries in the country's exports, as a rule, indicates a high scientific, technical and production level of industries whose products are exported;

The structure of imports, especially the ratio of the volumes of raw materials imported into the country and finished products. This indicator most clearly characterizes the dependence of the country's economy on the external market and the level of development of the sectors of the national economy;

Comparative ratio of a country's share in world production of GDP (GNP) and its share in world trade: the higher the values ​​of their indicators, the more significantly the country is involved in international economic relations.

2. Indicators of the export of capital (international movement of capital):

The volume of foreign investments (assets) of a given country and its correlation with the country's national wealth. As a rule, a country with a high level of openness of the economy has great opportunities for investing capital in the economy of other countries;

The ratio of the volume of foreign direct investment of a given country abroad with the volume of foreign direct investment in its territory. This ratio characterizes the development of international integration processes and is closely related to the efficiency of functioning and the level of openness of the national economy of countries - subjects of capital investment;

The volume of the country's external debt and its ratio to the GDP (GNP) of the country.

Further, based on the above indicators, an assessment of the degree of openness of the modern Russian economy will be given, but first we will consider the general patterns and trends associated with the formation of an open economic system in our country.

Keywords: world economy, world economy

Closed economy (in its purest form) - an economy that is not included in the international division of labor, does not export or import goods and services, does not participate in the international movement of factors of production, stands outside international financial relations.

It is an economic system in which all business transactions are carried out within the country and payments are made in the national currency. In a closed economy, the country's foreign economic relations are either completely absent or strictly dosed, and foreign economic policy is clearly restrictive.

It can be said that a closed economy is an economy whose development is determined exclusively by internal trends and does not depend on trends taking place in the world economy. This kind of economics is also called autarky. Autarky- economic isolation of a given country from other countries, the creation of a self-satisfying closed economy within a separate state. In its pure form, autarky manifested itself only in the conditions of a subsistence economy in pre-capitalist formations.

In the modern era, a country may find itself in a state of autarky either due to external circumstances (an economic blockade against it, the imposition of economic sanctions), or due to the state’s policy of autarky (for example, in conditions of preparation for war, which involves the creation of all kinds of obstacles to the development of economic ties with other countries).

So, Germany, striving in the 1930s. to accumulate material resources in order to create an economic basis for waging aggressive wars, officially proclaimed autarky as its economic policy. In view of the economic blockade after the October Revolution and the Civil War, the USSR found itself in a situation of forced autarky, focusing on self-sufficiency in basic types of goods.

Under such circumstances, the country's economic ties with other national economies were minimal, and all foreign economic transactions were carried out only through state foreign economic organizations. After the end of the Cold War, when autarky was generated by the political isolation of the country from the outside world, after the collapse of the socialist camp, the closed type of economy actually outlived itself.

Open economy model implies freedom of economic activity both within the country and abroad. An open economy is an economy where all subjects of economic relations can make transactions in the international market of goods, services, capital and other factors of production without restrictions. In contrast to a closed economy, there is freedom of foreign trade transactions, a free exchange rate is established, and regulation takes place through foreign exchange reserves and regulations.

An open economy means that countries actively participate in MRI, export and import a significant share of manufactured goods and services, export factors of production (labor, capital, technology) and are free to import them, that countries receive and provide loans in global financial markets and included in the system of international financial and economic relations. World experience shows that countries with a closed economy eventually become poorer than those that participate in world economic relations, since the former are isolated from new ideas and technologies, from foreign investment, information, etc.

A specific feature of foreign economic policy in an open economy is the maximum use of the advantages of foreign economic activity in order to achieve the greatest efficiency in the functioning of the national economy. An open economy eliminates the state monopoly in the field of foreign trade and requires the active use of various forms of joint ventures, the organization of free enterprise zones, and also implies a reasonable accessibility of the domestic market for the influx of foreign capital, goods, technologies, information and labor.

The degree of openness of the economy largely depends on the availability of natural resources, on the size of the population, on the capacity of the domestic market and on the solvent demand of the population. In addition, the degree of openness of the economy will be determined by the reproductive and sectoral structure of the national economy.

As practice shows, the greater the share of basic industries (metallurgy, energy) in the structure of industry, the less the relative involvement of the country in the international division of labor, the less the degree of openness of its economy. It can be said that the degree of openness of the country's economy is the higher, the more developed economic relations are in it, the more industries with a deep technological division of labor in its sectoral structure, the less its provision with its own natural resources.

According to the degree of openness of the economy, the countries can be divided into the following groups: countries with a relatively buried economy (the share of exports is less than 10% of GDP); countries with a relatively open economy (the share of exports is more than 35% of GDP); countries located between the first two. Based on this criterion, the countries with the most open economies are Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland, with the least open - North Korea, Cuba.

However, the share of exports in GDP is not the only indicator of the openness of the economic system. As indicators used to measure the degree of openness of the economy, the following groups of indicators are most often used.

1. Indicators characterizing the country's activity in world trade :

. coefficient of intra-industry international specialization :

The indicator ranges from -100 to +100 (in the first case, the country is exclusively importing this or that product, in the second case, it is exclusively exporting this or that product). Indicators located between the extreme points characterize the degree of the country's involvement in intra-sectoral international specialization;

. export quota - an indicator that characterizes the significance of exports for the economy as a whole and individual industries for certain types of products:

An increase in the export quota indicates both the growing participation of the country in the international division of labor, and the growth of the competitiveness of its products;

. import quota characterizes the importance of imports for the national economy and individual industries for various types of products:

. foreign trade quota is defined as the ratio of the total value of exports and imports, divided in half, to the value of GDP as a percentage:

. export structure , i.e. the ratio or shares of exported goods by type and degree of their processing. Thus, a high share of manufacturing products in the country's exports, as a rule, indicates a high scientific, technical and production level of industries whose products are exported;

. import structure , especially the ratio of volumes imported into the country of raw materials and finished products. This indicator most clearly characterizes the dependence of the country's economy on the external market and the level of development of the sectors of the national economy;

. comparative ratio of a country's share in world production of GDP (GNP) and its share in world trade : the higher the values ​​of their indicators, the more significantly the country is involved in international economic relations.

2. Indicators of the export of capital (international movement of capital) :

.the volume of foreign investments (assets) of a given country and its correlation with the national wealth of the country . As a rule, a country with a high level of openness of the economy has great opportunities for investing capital in the economy of other countries;

. the ratio of the volume of foreign direct investment of a given country abroad with the volume of foreign direct investment in its territory. This ratio characterizes the development of international integration processes and is closely related to the efficiency of functioning and the level of openness of the national economy of the countries that are subjects of capital investment;

. the volume of the country's external debt and its ratio with the GDP (GNP) of the country .

Moving towards an open economy comes with many complex challenges, one of which is economic security problem , determination of optimal conditions for interaction with the world economy. For the industrial development of countries, especially those that do not have their own reserves of energy and raw materials, the openness of the economy is a significant factor influencing their further development.

All other countries also participate in the international division of labor, and, consequently, in the establishment of commercial relations with each other, which leads to increased interconnections and interdependence of the subjects of the international division of labor and the need to combine the benefits of specialization and cooperation with protection from negative external influences.

As a result, there is risk of instability of the national economy , which is due to the fact that trade relations that countries enter into as they "open" cannot be absolutely safe. Therefore, with the development of foreign trade in individual countries, only relative economic security can take place, which is determined by interdependence .

Within the framework of this model, three blocks of questions are analyzed:

• 1. Main macroeconomic variables;
• 2. The model of an open economy in accordance with the principles of the model of a closed economy - a modification of the IS - LM model - the model of Robert Mundell and Marcus Fleming;
• 3. The third block is related to the prices at which a country trades on the world market and the determination of the rate at which the country's currency is exchanged for the currency of other countries.

A small open economy is a country that represents a small share of the world market and does not affect the world interest rate (r = rf).

In a closed economy, everything is sold domestically, and all spending is divided into 3 parts: consumption, investment, and government spending. In an open economy, part of the manufactured products is sold domestically, and part is exported:

• - Consumption of domestic goods and services - C d
• - Investment spending on domestic goods and services - I d
• - Public procurement of domestic goods and services - G d
• - Export of goods and services produced domestically - EX

Domestic spending on domestic goods and services.

The fourth term EX expresses the amount of foreigners' spending on goods and services produced within the country.

Let's substitute: .

Let's do some transformations.

Import costs (IM).

Basic national accounts identity:

Having defined net exports as the difference between exports and imports (), we write the identity:

For an open economy, there are 2 indicators of total income:

• - Gross national product (GNP) - the income received by the citizens of this country.
• - Gross domestic product (GDP) - income received within the country.

By Y in the open economy model, we mean GNP. This choice means that NX includes services from domestically owned and used abroad factors of production - labor and capital.

Payment balance:

1. Capital account and current account. In an open economy, as well as in a closed economy, financial markets are closely related to commodity markets, .

Subtract from both parts C and G we get: .

national savings. Then we get: or - the relationship between international flows of funds intended for capital accumulation.

called the capital account of the balance of payments and represents the excess of domestic investment over domestic savings.

NX - the current account of the balance of payments - is the amount received from abroad in exchange for net exports (including net proceeds from the use of our factors of production).

The basic national accounts identity states that the capital account balance and the current account balance of payments are in balance. This means that the capital account balance + current account balance = 0.

If the value is positive and NX is negative, then the country has a capital account surplus and a current account deficit. This means that it borrows from global financial markets and imports more goods than it exports. If the value is negative and NX is positive, then there is a capital account deficit and a current account surplus. In world financial markets, this will mean acting as a country - a creditor and more exports of goods than imports.

The balance of world savings and world investment determines the world interest rate. The real exchange rate (terms of trade) is the relative price of goods produced in two countries, which shows the ratio in which the goods of one country are exchanged for the goods of another. It depends on the nominal exchange rate and prices of goods in national currencies.

If the real exchange rate is high, then foreign goods are relatively cheap and home-produced goods are relatively expensive. If the regional exchange rate is low, then foreign goods are relatively expensive and goods produced in one's own country are relatively cheap.

Net exports are a function of the real exchange rate (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Net exports and real exchange rate

The real exchange rate is set at the intersection of the vertical line, which represents the difference between saving and investment, and the net export curve accumulated to the right down. At the point of intersection, the amount of dollars received as a result of transactions in the capital account is equal to the number of dollars required to cover the balance of the current account.

Assumptions of the small open economy model:

• 1. The value of output in the economy Y is fixed at the level given by the currently existing factors of production and the production function: - the potential volume of national production.
• 2. The greater the amount of disposable income Y-T, the higher the volume of consumption: .
• 3. The higher the real interest rate I, the lower the investment

Up until this chapter, all models have been models of a closed economy, that is, an economy that neither exports nor imports goods and services. A closed economy is an economic system in which all business operations and transactions are carried out within a given country and settlements are made in the national currency.

However, no country in the world is isolated from foreign economic relations and relations. Therefore, a complete macroeconomic model should include ongoing transactions in both the domestic and foreign markets. The complete macroeconomic model is the open economy model.

The state of the open economy characterizes country's balance of payments.

The balance of payments is the ratio between the total amount of cash receipts received by a given country from abroad and all payments made by this country abroad for a certain period (year, quarter, month).

The balance of payments includes three components:

1) the current account, which includes: (+) exports of goods and services, (-) imports, net investment income and net transfers. Wherein:

merchandise export - merchandise import = trade balance.

2) the capital account, which reflects all international transactions with assets: income from the sale of shares, bonds, real estate, etc. by foreigners and expenses arising from the purchase of assets abroad.

3) change in official reserves (foreign exchange), which include gold, foreign currency, the country's credit share in the IMF plus special drawing rights, etc. In developing countries, about 2/3 of the total assets of the banking sector are the country's international reserves, in developed countries - no more 20%..

The reserve assets account reflects transactions for the sale and purchase of foreign currency, gold and other assets of the Central Bank. The purpose of these operations is not profit, but the settlement of imbalances in the balance of payments, maintaining exchange rates, etc.

A decrease in the reserves of the Central Bank leads to an increase in the supply of currency on the market and is reflected in the balance sheet with a (+) sign. Current and capital account surpluses lead to an increase in official foreign exchange reserves and are reflected in the balance sheet with a (-) sign.

The sum of the balances of all accounts of the balance of payments should be 0. However, for the first two accounts, m. (-) or (+) balance. This indicates the direction of movement of the currency (into or out of the country) from international trade and financial transactions.

Thus, an open economy is an economy meaning:

that countries export and import a significant share of their goods and services;

that countries receive and lend in world financial markets.

If in a closed economy all goods and services produced are sold within a given country and all costs are divided into three components: consumption, investment and government spending, then in an open economy a significant part of output is exported abroad.

In an open economy, production costs can be decomposed into four components:

consumption of domestic goods and services - WITH d ;

investment spending on domestic goods and services - I d

public procurement of domestic goods and services - G d

export of goods and services produced within the country - EX.

The division of costs into these components is presented in the following formula:

Y= C d + I d + Gd + EX.

The sum of the first three terms WITH d + I d + Gd represents the amount of domestic spending on domestic goods and services. Fourth term EX expresses the amount of expenditure by foreigners on goods and services produced within the country.

A distinction is made between a small open economy and a large open economy.

Small open economy - This is the economy of a small country. The small open economy model includes a capital account and a current account. It is represented on the world market by a small share and has practically no effect on the world interest rate, taking the latter as given, since its savings and investments are only an insignificant part of the world savings and investments, therefore the world interest rate is set by the conditions of the world financial market.

Big open economy- this is an economy in which, based on its scale, the interest rate is formed under the significant influence of economic processes occurring within the country itself. A large open economy is the economy of a large country (USA, Japan, China, Germany, etc.), which has a significant share of world savings and investment, so it has an impact on the world interest rate.

The main indicators of an open economy are:

foreign trade quota in GDP;

the share of exports in the volume of production;

the share of imports in consumption;

share of foreign investment in relation to domestic investment.

The degree of openness of the economy usually depends on the volume of foreign trade of the country or on the policy of its government. For example, the UK economy is relatively open because it is more dependent on foreign trade. Economy The USA is relatively closed, since foreign trade is not so significant for its development.

An open economy involves the use of foreign currencies in international settlements. It is reflected in the balance of payments, in particular in the balance of current operations and in the balance of capital movements.

The economy of the Russian Federation has the conditions (intellectual, industrial, resource) for the formation of a large open economy.

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The main features and indicators of an open economy on the example of the Russian Federation

Introduction…………………………………………………………………………...1

1 Open economy as an object of theoretical research………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..3

1.1 The concept, models and risk factors of an open economy…………………..3

1.2 National interests and government regulation of an open economy………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

2 The Russian Economy in the Context of Problems of Openness and National-State Interests………………………………………………………...22

2.1 Openness of the Russian Economy: Trends, Benefits, Challenges and International Comparisons……………………………………………………………………………22

2.2 Financial incentives and restrictions on the growth of the Russian open economy ........................................................................................

2.3 National economic interests as a priority in the program of modernization of the Russian economy…………………………………………………30

Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….36

List of sources used…………………………………………...38

Introduction

An open economy is an economy integrated into the system of world economic relations, in which any economic entity has the right to carry out foreign economic operations: export/import of goods and services, as well as financial transactions.

"Openness" can be understood in two ways. First, it can mean absolute bilateral permeability of the economy to international flows of capital, technology, raw materials and labor resources, and consumer goods. In this sense, "open economy" implies the rejection of protectionism - that is, the removal of all barriers to the import and export of goods and services, all restrictions on the activities of foreign firms and banks in the country, including the acquisition of property; the abolition of any privileges, benefits and priority right of residents over non-residents in access to resources, in obtaining government orders, concessions; ensuring freedom of movement of labor.

In this first sense, there is no open economy in developed countries - one can only speak of a greater or lesser degree of approximation to this model. In its pure form, it is found in the colonies and economically dependent states.

In the second meaning, the term "open economy" refers to open economic complexes, that is, it is opposite in meaning to closed economic systems. For example, the economy of an administrative region within a sovereign country has a fundamentally open character - it is not self-sufficient, it does not provide for self-sufficiency in material resources, the completeness of the production program, and the sale of products only on the territory of this region.

However, an obligatory consequence of the implementation of this model is dependence on external conditions, and in the event of international conflicts, wars, the imposition of sanctions, the establishment of a blockade, the country's vulnerability due to the threat of stopping export-oriented production and stopping import deliveries, especially vital products (raw materials, energy resources and primarily food).

The purpose of this course work is to consider the main features and indicators of an open economy on the example of the Russian Federation.

Therefore, the following questions will be considered in this course work:

The essence of an open economy

Key features of an open economy

Key indicators of an open economy

National economic interests and security

Openness of the Russian economy

1 Open economy as an object of theoretical research

1.1 The concept, models and risk factors of an open economy

An open economy is an economy integrated into the system of world economic relations, in which any economic entity has the right to carry out foreign economic operations: export / import of goods and services, as well as financial transactions.

A fully open economy is also understood as an economy, the development of which is determined by the trends in the world economy. The country's external relations are intensifying, and with the transition to a higher level of development, both absolute and relative expansion occurs.

The mere fact that there are economic ties between one country and other countries does not mean that it has an open economy. Even when the country's economic policy is dominated or dominated by isolationist (autarkic) tendencies, foreign relations inevitably play one role or another in such an economy, although, of course, in a closed (autarkic) economy, foreign economic relations are minimal.

An open economy is such a national economy, all subjects of economic relations of which are free in their choice in the domestic and international markets for goods, services, capital, and its development is determined to a large extent by the trends in the world economy. At the same time, foreign trade turnover (export + import) reaches a level where it begins to stimulate the overall economic development in a given country. According to some export estimates, in modern conditions, the stimulating effect of foreign trade relations on the development of the economy is especially pronounced when its foreign trade turnover reaches at least 25% of its GDP. We are talking about the indicator of the foreign trade quota.

According to Keynesian theory, the general equation for an open economy is as follows:

Y = C + I + G + (export - import), where:

Y - effective demand,

C - consumption,

I - investment,

G - public procurement.

Some economies are more open than others. Moreover, the economy of large countries, as a rule, is less open. The degree of openness of the economy also depends on the availability of natural resources, population size, as well as on its effective demand, which is determined by the level of development of productive forces. If the productive forces are equally developed, then the economy is more open, with a lower economic potential, which is understood as the ability of labor and material resources to ensure the maximum level of production of goods and services for industrial and non-industrial purposes, subject to the efficient use of all resources. In addition, the degree of openness of the economy also depends on the sectoral structure of national production. The greater the share of basic industries (metallurgy, energy, etc.), the less the relative involvement of the country in the international division of labor, i.e. degree of openness of its economy. On the contrary, the manufacturing industry, especially such industries as mechanical engineering, electronics, and chemistry, involve a deeper detailed specialization, due to which there is an increase in the technological interdependence of countries and, accordingly, an increase in the open nature of the economy. Thus, the degree of openness of the national economy is the higher, the more developed its productive forces, the more industries with a deep technological division of labor in its sectoral structure, the less its overall economic potential and the provision of its own natural resources.

The openness of the national economy is linked to the concept of "reciprocity" and "vulnerability". "Reciprocity" implies overcoming the emerging disproportions and disequilibria. An example is the disequilibrium in the trade in manufactured goods between Russia and Western Europe and the desire to balance the trade balance.

Vulnerability is understood as the dependence of the national economy on the situation on the world market, as well as the possibility of incurring losses under the influence of external economic factors. So a change in the economic situation in one country can cause a chain reaction. The main problems for national economies are created by dependence on world prices, demand and competition. For example, an increase in the price of oil and oil products, which is beneficial for exporters, turns into a blow to an import-dependent or energy-intensive economy.

The idea of ​​the openness of the economy does not stand still, but develops as the internationalization of economic life develops.

In modern conditions, they are increasingly talking about two types of openness:

1. De jure, associated with the liberalization of the regulatory and legal conditions for the implementation of foreign economic activities of foreign economic activity. The openness of this type is expressed in the level of customs barriers, the investment climate, migration legislation, the level of guarantees for the protection of foreign investors, etc.

2. De facto, the intensity of international exchanges is understood, this kind of openness characterizes the actual participation of the country and its individual parts in the international system of the world economy and is measured by different indicators.

Not only countries, but also parts of their economic space are involved in world economic relations in different ways, and for a number of countries, including large ones, this aspect is important for studying the factors hindering the process of openness. The level of openness of the country is, as it were, the average for the entire set of elements of the territorial structure of the economy, but the differences between individual regions of the country in terms of the degree of involvement can vary greatly, which is a consequence of their different competitiveness and investment attractiveness.

The main features of an open economy:

In order to determine the degree of openness of the economy, it is necessary to consider the main features of an open economy; they can be divided into three groups.

The first group is the signs of an open economy at the macro level:

1) the most complete use of various forms of world economic relations.

2) stable foreign economic specialization of the country, in which the exchange with the world economy occurs not due to shortages or surpluses of products within the country, but on the basis of comparative production costs and product quality.

3) the stability of the monetary and financial position of the country, when servicing the external debt does not close the possibilities for economic growth and does not create difficulties in attracting new loans.

4) international convertibility of the national currency.

5) the development of the national economy is determined by the trends in the world economy.

The second group is the signs of an open economy at the micro level:

1) free entry of enterprises of all forms of ownership to foreign markets for goods, capital and services.

2) freedom of choice by all economic entities of domestic and foreign partners and markets in the implementation of business transactions.

3) the transformation of foreign economic activity into an organic component in the economic activity of many enterprises.

And the third group is the signs of an open economy in the activities of the state:

1) the opening of the domestic market to foreign competition, combined with flexible protection of the domestic producer.

2) ensuring legal and economic guarantees of economic functioning and protection of foreign capital.

3) creation and maintenance of a favorable investment climate (which can be understood as a set of factors ensuring reasonable accessibility of the domestic market for the influx of foreign goods, capital, technology, information, etc.)

4) the elimination of the monopoly of foreign trade in most commodity items.

5) support in foreign markets for domestic exporters.

6) orientation of technical, industrial and social policy to world standards and trends in their development.

7) convergence of domestic economic law with international law.

8) the priority of the country's international contractual obligations over the norms of domestic law.

9) the use of an arsenal generally accepted in world practice of means and methods for regulating foreign economic relations, combined depending on the specific situation in the national economy.

10) ensuring the participation of the state in the most important international economic organizations.

It is necessary to distinguish between the concepts of "open economy" and "free trade" free trade. Free trade is nothing more than a policy of minimal government intervention in foreign trade. The openness of the economy is a broader concept than the freedom of trade because:

1) implies the active participation of the country not only in international trade, but also in other foreign economic or world economic relations. The concept of free trade concerns only the sphere of foreign trade.

2) the openness of the economy does not exclude protectionism, which is the antipode of the policy of free trade

Protectionism is the government policy of protecting the domestic market from foreign competition through the use of tariff and non-tariff trade policy instruments. The goal of the policy of protectionism differs significantly from the goal of the policy of autarky, since protectionism does not deny the usefulness of international trade and does not set the task of the country providing itself with everything.

There are 4 main forms of protectionism:

1. Selective - directed against specific individual countries, products or companies.

2. Sectoral - protects certain sectors of the national economy, primarily agriculture.

3. Collective - carried out in relation to a country or a number of countries together with one or more other countries.

1. Hidden (indirect) - carried out by the methods of domestic economic policy.

The main indicators of the openness of the country's economy:

As indicators used to measure the degree of openness of the economy, the following are most often used:

1. export quota
2. import quota
3. foreign trade quota

Sometimes elasticity coefficients of exports (to assess the dynamics of the openness of the economy) or imports in relation to GDP are also used.

The export quota is a quantitative indicator that characterizes the importance of exports for the economy as a whole and for individual industries for certain types of products. Within the framework of the entire national economy, it is calculated as the ratio of the value of exports (E) to the value of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the corresponding period as a percentage: Ke = E / GDP * 100%.

The import quota is a quantitative indicator that characterizes the importance of imports for the national economy and individual industries for various types of products. Within the framework of the entire national economy, the import quota is calculated as the ratio of the value of imports (I) to the value of GDP: Ki = I / GDP * 100%.

The foreign trade quota is defined as the ratio of the total value of exports and imports, divided in half, to the value of GDP as a percentage: Kv = E + I / 2GDP * 100%.

Another option Kv \u003d (E + I) / GDP * 100% * 0.5

Shows the importance of foreign trade relations for the country, and not just exports and imports. All indicators do not show the country's share of world exports.

Elasticity coefficients of exports and imports in relation to GDP show how much exports or imports increase with an increase in the country's GDP by 1% and are calculated as the ratio of the percentage change in the value of exports (or imports) for the period under review to the percentage change in the country's GDP for the same period.

Ee = Delta E(%) / Delta GDP(%)

Eu = Delta I(%) / Delta GDP(%)

The value of these coefficients if they are greater than > 1 is interpreted as strengthening the open nature of the economy, if less< 1 то наоборот.

It should be noted that none of these indicators can be recognized as a universal indicator of the openness of the national economy, since they do not take into account the participation of a given country in the international movement of factors of production, do not take into account its influence on changes in the movement of the world interest rate, the level of world prices, etc. Therefore, all these indicators can serve as a measure of the openness of the economy only in the first approximation.

There is no universal indicator of the openness of the economy; we can only speak of a set of indicators.

The World Bank still classifies the openness of the economy by the criterion of a country's export quota. He divides countries into three groups:

1. Relatively closed, with a quota< 10%
2. Moderately open economies, 10 to 25% quota
3. Open economies, quota > 25%

But here you can also make a mistake if GDP is reduced more than exports, then we get the wrong picture.

Open economy models:

In domestic and foreign literature, the concept of an open economy model is discussed. If we cover the economic thought of the West, then each of its directions developed its own model of an open economy. The theories of the open economy are analyzed both in educational and monographic literature of the West. Their study was carried out by various areas of economic thought. This issue remains relevant to this day in the economic literature of foreign countries. After all, models of an open economy open up such a range of issues as interaction between national economies, a combination of macroeconomic and foreign economic policy, and in the case of its non-equilibrium level, the issue of developing one's own stabilization policy.

An open economy manifests itself through the outflow and inflow of capital, the export and import of goods and services, and exchange rates. Therefore, there are, as it were, three levels of its openness, namely:

• export of goods and services;
• capital inflow and outflow;
• currency movement.

To determine the relationship between countries in the theories of the open economy, there are models of a small open economy, in which prices are assumed to be constant, and models of a large open economy, where prices are flexible. Based on the "Economics" or "Volkswirtschaftslehre", there is also a division into short-term and long-term periods. Due to the fact that exchange rates in the economy of foreign countries are closer in one case to a fixed rate, in another - to a floating one, there are models of an open economy with either a fixed or a floating, or flexible, exchange rate. Each of these models reflects a part of the current state policy. The essence of the reality of the development of open economies can be shown only in the aggregate, the system of models under consideration.

In the countries of Eastern Europe, with the reform, this problem also began to be analyzed. After all, the actual trade and loans until this period were carried out by the state. The Eastern European countries opened their economies in terms of the movement of capital, exports and imports of goods and services at the level of firms, introduced exchange rates and currency convertibility, its exchangeability for foreign ones, and the choice of the exchange rate was carried out. Among the countries of Eastern Europe, some have opened their economies to a greater extent, some less so. The openness of the economy naturally entails the impact of other states on the national economy, which raises the question of the degree of openness of the economy in the countries of Eastern Europe, its positive and negative impact, application to specific conditions, the degree of development of the country before the reform, the dose of economic reforms, their sequence. Therefore, this problem is of interest to the countries of Eastern Europe. As a result, it is necessary to consider the main theories of an open economy, their subordination, the real reflection of the existing reality in the field of relations between countries at the levels of macroeconomic and foreign economic policy, which is the achievement of economic growth, the absence of inflation and unemployment, the equalization of the balance of payments.

The concept of a small open economy. The latter takes such an interest rate as is established in the world financial markets. A small open economy refers to an economy that represents a small share of the global market. When accessing world financial markets, it is understood that the government does not interfere with international borrowing and lending. In a small open economy, three assumptions are made. So: Y=Y=F(K, L).

This means that the value of output in the economy is fixed at the level given at the moment by the existing factors of production and the production function. This is first. Secondly, the greater the amount of disposable income Y-T, the higher the volume of consumption. The consumption function is written as follows: C = f (Y-T). Thirdly, the higher the real interest rate r, the lower the investment: I=f(r).

Large open economy - an open economy in which, due to its scale, the interest rate is formed under the influence of internal economic processes; an economy capable of exerting a significant influence on the state of the international market and on the level of the world interest rate.

A large open economy is defined using the following equalities. So: Y=Y=F(K,L), which means that the amount of output depends on the fixed amounts of labor and capital in the production function. Further, output is the sum of consumption, investment, government purchases and net exports: Y=C+I+G+NX.

It is also assumed that consumption depends on disposable income, which is expressed as follows: Y=C(Y--T).

The volume of investments depends on the real interest rate: I=f(r).

The state of the current account of the balance of payments depends on the real exchange rate: NX=NX(E).

The state of the capital account is a dependent value of the internal interest rate CF=CF(r).

Finally, the capital account and the current account must balance each other.

An open economy, as mentioned above, is the free movement of capital (i.e., its inflow and outflow), the movement of exports and imports of goods and services, the entry of exchange rates, which is the essence of the open economy model. Based on its essence, a system of markets is built. In this case, this is the market for goods and services, the inflow and outflow of capital, the foreign exchange market. Each of the branches of economic science in the West expressed its point of view on this matter. However, there is a general system of categories that explains the open economy. In this case, it is necessary to disclose the functional relationship between exports and imports, capital inflows and outflows, and exchange rates. This is first. Secondly, an open economy does not exist in isolation from the national economy, but, on the contrary, is closely connected with national markets. The system of its categories is a set of elements interconnected and subordinated by logical relationships.

The basic identity of an open economy is written as current account balance = - capital account balance. So, NX = S-I or NX = (Y--C-G)-I.

The latter can be rewritten as follows:

NX = -Y(r) = S-Y(r).

This is the basic attitude of an open economy. It shows that exports minus imports equals savings minus investment. In order for the country's economy to be in balance, equality is necessary. This equation shows what determines the amount of savings and investment and, accordingly, the capital account (I-S) and the current account of the balance of payments (NX). The amount of savings depends on fiscal policy (Y-T). Thus, less government purchases or higher taxes increase the level of national savings. The amount of investment depends on the interest rate. Consequently, the capital account and the current account are formed under the influence of fiscal and monetary policy. The latter are the instruments of state policy with the help of which the stabilization policy is achieved, a combination of various options.

Risk factors:

The framework condition for the theoretical equilibrium of an open economy is capital mobility, which means that there are no significant differences in the risks and liquidity of deposits denominated in national currencies. In accordance with differences in expected returns (interest rates and exchange rates), the international flow of capital equalizes interest rates in local financial markets.

Financial crises of the 90s and the beginning of the XXI century. did not change the principle of the functioning of the global financial system: having left some markets, capital came to others, the system as a whole continued to function, meeting the framework conditions of macroeconomic theory.

In the context of the global liquidity crisis (MLC), which began in 2007 with the mortgage crisis in the United States, almost all local financial markets turned out to be risky, short-term investors began to “rush” between investing in conservative assets, which can ensure the preservation of value, and in highly profitable, but risky assets.

In theory, such a development of events is practically impossible; it lacks competing influences on the domestic rate from a decrease in domestic demand in the commodity and money markets (or a decrease in the money supply), on the one hand, and speculative demand for safe-haven currencies (in the general case, safe-haven assets), on the other. In other words, at short time intervals there are no factors preventing the adaptation of small open economies (small economies or SOEs) to new equilibrium conditions in the global financial market. Therefore, by adjusting the current account balance of payments or reserves, MOEs are theoretically able to keep domestic private demand stable.

During the global liquidity crisis, this adjustment was complicated by sporadic surges in negative expectations from short-term investors and downward pressure on virtually all national financial markets. Thus, the flow of capital began to be determined not by differences in interest rates, but by the levels of sovereign and corporate risks. This did not work to smooth out, but to widen the gap in domestic rates: the gap between the maximum and minimum domestic rates in the OECD countries grew in 2007-2008. by almost 2 p.p. The situation in emerging markets turned out to be even more tense: in 2009 capital outflow amounted to about $190 billion compared to an inflow of $618 billion in 2007. capital guarantees a stable inflow of capital during a crisis.

At the same time, the longer negative expectations persist, the greater the duration and scale of adjustment, and the more protracted and reversible the exit from the global recession turns out to be. Cyclical processes affect not only current accounts and reserves, but also the processes of external and internal borrowing, and consequently, household consumption, investment, and government consumption.

Therefore, the growth factors of corporate and sovereign risks, correcting the conditions of macroeconomic equilibrium, are currently a very important subject of economic research.

The global liquidity crisis that began in the United States in 2007 can be considered the first full-fledged global financial crisis.

From a theoretical point of view, this is the first crisis of the large open economies of the era of globalization. Previous crises were either local, affecting individual small economies integrated into the global one (Mexico - 1994, Argentina - 2002), or regional, spreading in a group of small economies (in its pure form - the crisis in Southeast Asia 1997-1998 gg.). The global liquidity crisis has become precisely due to the influence of the national financial market of large economies on many small ones.

The analysis carried out also points to the absence of a rigid connection between the type of monetary policy and the level of risks in the financial system. A critical increase in risks can be observed both with a fixed exchange rate (Central and Eastern Europe), and with a regulated one (Mexico), and in an economy with a reserve currency (USA), and in an economy with a floating currency (Iceland). This allows us to say that fixing the exchange rate can increase risks, but is not the root cause of their occurrence. Moreover, the advantages of floating rates as indicators of the impact of capital flows on national financial markets are no longer obvious. This function of the floating rate can be successfully performed by the regulation of entry into these markets (example of the PRC). If the integration of the national financial market into the global one is not only not limited, but is also specifically encouraged (the example of Iceland), then the sensitivity of the economy to the indicative function of the floating exchange rate can be weakened.

The only macroeconomic variable is the conditions for the investment of capital in the national financial market. However, a caveat is needed here. In the most acute phase of the crisis, the high share of non-residents in the assets of most small economies turned out to be a kind of open gateway for the outflow of short-term capital into reliable assets. China, with its tight regulation of the presence of foreign financial institutions in its market, has avoided such an outflow. However, in the general case, the height of entry barriers to national financial markets also turns out to be risk-neutral: in the United States, it was quite moderate, that is, the risk factor was not an external, but an internal flow of capital.

Thus, it is not possible to identify a universal reason for the accumulation of risks in national financial systems, at least in those considered above. Each of the factors acts in a certain combination with others, forming several variants of risky combinations. Fixing the exchange rate, for example, is fraught with risks when combined with tight monetary policy and weak controls on capital inflows. Loose monetary policy can be risky, coupled with the reserve currency status of a large economy and lack of control over capital flows within the economy. A tight monetary policy in a small economy can lead to a liquidity crisis if capital is aggressively raised from abroad despite a floating currency. Accordingly, the question of the universal "anti-crisis" factor of the macroeconomic equilibrium of an open economy does not have an unambiguous answer. So far, only the Chinese model has demonstrated crisis stability, which, unlike others, provided for control over external and internal capital flows.

At the same time, the low share of non-residents in the financial markets did not save the US economy from the crisis, and control over internal capital flows in China is achieved at the cost of slowing down the formation of a full-fledged credit market and is fraught with the accumulation of "bad" assets in the public sector. Therefore, it is hardly possible to consider the Chinese approach as an indisputable guideline for the reform of global finance. But the fact that in order to increase the stability of economies to liquidity crises it is necessary to continue the search for mechanisms to stop risks in national financial systems is beyond doubt.

1.2 National interests and government regulation of an open economy

The concept of "interest" includes a system of needs (priorities and their subordination) that the population has.

Reflecting the unity of all economic needs, interest, in contrast to needs focused on objective goals (the need for bread, shoes, a car, etc.), is aimed at economic relations, at living conditions in general. Therefore, interest acts as a stimulus for the activity of the subject of the economy, determining its goals, economic behavior and actions.

The economic goals of different countries may be different. For example, the goal of rapid economic growth is an important priority in the scorecard for developing countries. In industrialized countries, the priority is to protect the environment by reducing the consumption of non-renewable resources. The goal may be to provide jobs for those who want to work.

Setting goals and implementing them is a sober economic calculation that takes into account the country's real economic potential.

National goals, which should be associated with the strategic decisions of the state, on the one hand, are due to the common interests of various strata and groups, and on the other hand, the foreign policy interests of the state and its economic security. The presence of common interests that stand above the interests of individual classes, social groups, often does not exclude the diversity of interests and their internal inconsistency.

It is important that the policy of economic security pursued by government institutions should be aimed at maintaining the entire range of macroeconomic indicators.

For example, you can significantly increase GDP growth by exporting oil. The lack of growth in oil production may affect the domestically oriented market, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of goods and services and, as a result, to an increase in prices. The state needs to correlate economic efficiency and security in each specific case, but what is beneficial in the short term may turn out to be completely unprofitable in the strategic aspect.

The policy of the state in the field of foreign trade is carried out with the help of tariff and non-tariff methods of regulation.

The introduction of import duties is beneficial for national producers and the state, which receives additional budget revenue from rising prices. Consumers are forced to buy imported goods at higher prices, and therefore suffer losses. These losses usually turn out to be greater than the gains received by producers and the state, so the total net effect of these measures will be negative.

The application of export customs duties leads to lower domestic prices, as a result of which national consumers gain and producers suffer losses. The net gain to society from the imposition of export duties is less than the loss to producers, so that the country's net loss increases. This method of tariff regulation is used mainly by underdeveloped countries.

Developed countries usually resort to export subsidies in the following forms:

• providing low-interest loans and tax incentives to exporting firms or foreign clients;
• promotion of sales of export products abroad. Non-tariff methods of foreign trade regulation include: import quotas, "voluntary" export restrictions, dumping, trade embargo, etc.

Import quotas (contingents) - quantitative restrictions on the volume of foreign products allowed to be imported into the country. As a result of the introduction of import quotas, producers win, and consumers lose. The net effect on the welfare of the country is negative.

"Voluntary" export restrictions mean that the exporting country undertakes to restrict exports to that country.

The main reason for their use is the benefit of national producers of importing countries, for whom the restriction of the import of certain goods into the country gives additional opportunities to sell their products on the national market. This method is similar to import quotas, but it is more expensive for the importing country, since decisions to restrict trade are made at the government level.

Dumping means the sale of goods abroad at a price lower than it is sold in the domestic market of the exporting country, or below the cost of this product. This method is resorted to during periods of economic downturns, when the manufacturer cannot fully sell his product on the domestic market, and does not want to reduce production. The use of dumping in world trade is regarded as a form of unfair competition and is prohibited by GATT/WTO rules and the national legislation of a number of countries.

A trade embargo is a state prohibition of import into or export from any country of certain types of products. Such sanctions are based not on economic benefits, but on political considerations. An embargo harms all participants in international trade and is an extreme form of non-tariff restrictions in foreign trade.

An economy is considered open if the state applies a minimum of export and import restrictions. The openness of the economy is characterized by the following indicators:

• foreign trade quota in GNP;
• the share of exports in production;
• the share of imports in production;
• the share of foreign investment in relation to domestic.

An additional impetus to world trade was due to the activities of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to liberalize export-import operations and, in particular, to reduce and eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers.

Given the indicators of the openness of the economy, Russia is a country with an open economy.

2 The Russian economy in the context of problems of openness and national-state interests

2.1 Openness of the Russian economy: trends, advantages, problems and international comparisons.

Trends leading to an increase in the level of openness of the Russian economy:

Increasing the level of market competition. Thanks to the liberalization of foreign trade, foreign manufacturers have entered the Russian market with offers of a wide range of new goods and services. In many cases, these goods and services were significantly superior in quality to their Russian counterparts. The price of imported products was also often quite competitive. This expansion of imports affected most sectors of the Russian economy. Due to the growth of competition, many enterprises, the quality of which left much to be desired, began to lose their sales niches. To survive in these conditions, such enterprises needed to improve a lot:

product quality, stability of supplies, technological level of machinery and equipment, discipline and conscientiousness of personnel, management, etc. In a number of cases, Russian manufacturers have managed to achieve radical improvements and regain their market positions (food and pharmaceutical industries, cosmetics and parts of building materials, mobile telephone networks). In other words, the opening of Russian markets and international competition has accelerated the development of quite a few sectors of the national economy.

Expanding consumer choice. Another positive result

opening of the Russian economy - a radical increase in the quality of consumer choice. High- and middle-income households were able to take full advantage of this benefit. As a result, the quality of life of prosperous groups of the population has significantly increased, especially in large cities. The emergence of new products and the introduction of new technologies. The increase in the degree of openness of the Russian economy contributed to the arrival of many innovations from abroad: production ideas, design and design solutions, products and technologies. Of course, this helped Russian manufacturers to understand in which direction they need to develop in order to achieve market success. In addition, the use of foreign experience in many cases significantly accelerated the modernization of production and the improvement of product quality. Some foreign strategic investors have also contributed to the technological renewal of the Russian economy. Opening new enterprises and productions in Russia, they used modern know-how, new technologies, equipment and materials. Typical examples of this kind are the construction of food factories by large foreign companies (Nestle, Danone, Cadbury, Parmalat, etc.), the organization of large-scale retail chains (Metro, Auchan), the opening of small automotive assembly plants, as well as the creation of new production facilities in pharmaceuticals, packaging industry and some other industries.

Suppression of development impulses in lagging industries. These industries include light industry; most sub-sectors of mechanical engineering (electronics production, aircraft building, machine tool building, transport engineering); the chemical industry focused on domestic demand; local industry in depressed regions.

The situation of these industries was difficult during the reform period. Despite this, enterprises in the lagging industries quite actively struggled to survive and improve their market positions, using both formal and informal methods of adaptation. Sometimes they managed to achieve some success. However, macroeconomic circumstances, including the economic openness of Russia, did not allow the listed industries to get out of the permanent crisis.

In particular, Russian textiles, as a rule, could not fully compete with much cheaper products from China and other Asian countries, for the import of which there were no serious barriers to import into Russia. Russian machinery and equipment in most cases are significantly inferior to imported counterparts in terms of quality, which ultimately also led to the loss of their positions in the domestic market. These problems were further exacerbated by the revaluation of the ruble between 1995 and 1998.

The situation could only be changed by large-scale technological modernization in lagging industries or the establishment of high barriers to

import. But external investors did not want to invest in unprofitable industries, the state refused to impose serious restrictions on imports, and the industries themselves could not earn money for their modernization. In other words, the lagging sectors were deprived of both money and time for full adaptation, and to a significant extent, this state of affairs was connected precisely with the factor of openness of the economy.

According to the Concept for the Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation, one of the key targets for the development of the Russian economy in the period up to 2020 is to increase its international competitiveness. At the same time, it is noted that the most important result achieved during the period of transformational processes of 1990-2000 was the strengthening of Russia's integration into the world economy: “A high degree of openness of the Russian economy has been achieved. Foreign trade turnover in 2007 amounted to 45% of the gross domestic product, which is one of the highest rates for countries with developed economies”.

The share of Russian exports and imports in the world is quite low. This can be seen from the table below.

world-total

In the world community, the degree of openness of the Russian economy, on the contrary, is assessed as very low. The report of the World Economic Forum notes: “... Russia's competitiveness continues to decline in one of the most important analyzed positions - the efficiency of commodity markets. Competition—domestic and international—is limited by ineffective antitrust policies, as well as trade barriers and restrictions on foreign ownership.”

According to the results of comparisons of the intensity of trade in different countries, Russia occupies a middle position along with Italy, Spain, France, and India. The ratio of foreign trade turnover to gross domestic product in Russia is higher than that of Japan, but lower than that of Great Britain, Canada and Mexico. Thus, to say that according to this indicator Russia has reached the highest level among countries with developed economies is not entirely true.

According to the calculations, Russia occupies an average position in the rating on two indicators: a) the percentage of items in the nomenclature for which customs duties are not levied; b) the percentage of items in the nomenclature for which the rate of import duty exceeds 15%. Thus, the use by Russia of tariff methods of restricting imports in relation to these countries is not overstated. However, in terms of the indicator that characterizes the intensity of the use of non-tariff restrictions - the percentage of items in the nomenclature for which non-tariff restrictions on imports are established - Russia occupies one of the last places in the rating among all the countries under consideration. A higher frequency of use of these import restriction instruments in relation to countries with the most favored nation treatment was found only in Switzerland (80%) and

Republic of Belarus (12.2%). The results of international comparisons presented above indicate that the degree of openness of the Russian economy (when assessed from the standpoint of the height of barriers to foreign competition) is relatively low.

2.2 Financial incentives and growth constraints for the Russian open economy

We have to state that the basic trends and ratios associated with the formation of final demand and ultimately determining the dynamics of GDP are of a downward nature.

1. The dynamics of exports has slowed down significantly due to the limited capacity of the primary industries, and if the structure of exports remains the same, this trend can only intensify. According to forecasts by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation, by 2010 the growth rate of hydrocarbon exports will decrease (on average) to less than one percent per year.

2.Population consumption has shown extremely high and even accelerating dynamics in recent years. At the same time, this dynamics largely relied, firstly, on the additional income of the economy associated with a favorable external economic environment, and secondly, on the rapid development of the consumer lending system. The positive impact of these factors on consumption dynamics and economic growth in the medium and long term is largely lost.

3. Despite a certain increase in investment, in recent years the share of accumulation in GDP has remained at a rather low level - about 18%. Maintaining such a rate of accumulation in the face of inevitable growth in capital intensity means an inevitable slowdown in economic growth.

4. State consumption, both due to the ongoing financial policy and due to a slowdown in the growth of budget revenues, is not able to fulfill the role of an accelerator of economic dynamics.

5. The outpacing (compared to the dynamics of production) growth of imports is the most powerful negative factor in economic dynamics in the medium and long term.

The high and even accelerating dynamics of domestic demand signals that the economy is trying to grow much faster - at the level of 10-11% per year, but it is not succeeding. Sufficiently intense domestic demand in recent years cannot be transformed into an adequate dynamics of domestic production precisely because of the excessively fast-growing imports.

In addition to the macro-trends discussed above, which act to reduce the potential economic dynamics, there are also a number of significant barriers and restrictions, without which it is impossible to constructively solve the problems facing society. These include:

The absence of an effective system of capital flow, which does not allow financing the development of the manufacturing industry in the conditions of an excess of financial resources;

Low wages in the manufacturing sector of the economy, hindering the growth of production efficiency and the spread of innovations;

The general technological backwardness of the Russian economy, which does not allow ensuring the proper competitiveness of products and services.

Objectively, due to the strength of the trends and limitations discussed above, the probability of the development scenario being implemented is quite high, the main characteristics of which are determined by the parameters of inertial trends. Thus, in the framework of developing a long-term forecast, first of all, it is necessary to consider the inertial scenario of development. At the same time, it is important to understand that this scenario, by its nature, always relies on existing trends, always proceeds from the fact that these trends will remain dominant in the future, and for this reason it is always somewhat conservative. The analysis of the inertial scenario is extremely important, because, firstly, it gives an idea of ​​the long-term consequences of development within the framework of inertia, and secondly, it allows us to understand what mechanisms and what scale and structural content of costs need to be used in order to overcome growth constraints.

The hypothesis adopted here of the possible negative impact of outpacing import growth on GDP dynamics is very moderate. In fact, in the last one and a half to two years, there has been a significant increase in the elasticity of imports in terms of the rate of ruble appreciation. This leads to the fact that even with the decelerating strengthening of the ruble, imports are accelerating. Meanwhile, the acceleration of imports in relation to GDP dynamics by 1 percentage point is equivalent to a decrease in the GDP growth rate by 0.3 percentage points. Thus, the probable assessment of economic dynamics given above within the framework of the inertial development scenario rather reflects the upper range of inertia. We estimate the lower limit of the inertia range at 3.5-4.0% of GDP growth by the end of the forecast period. It is important to note that, despite all the trends and limitations listed above, none of the inertial scenarios and forecasts developed in recent years has been fully implemented. Each time, the economy managed to achieve a slightly higher growth rate, slightly lower inflation, slightly faster consumption and investment dynamics. This means that the economy constantly generated new growth factors and mechanisms, found new opportunities to overcome emerging restrictions. These positive increments in the dynamics and efficiency of production, not taken into account in the inertial forecasts, were not very significant. An extremely powerful tool that can both hold up and bring down economic growth is foreign economic policy.

The sharp slowdown in the dynamics of exports of products from the primary industries, observed in recent years, can and should be offset by an increase in exports of products from the manufacturing industries and the service sector. In fact, the main problem of the export of these sectors of the economy is not so much the lack of competitive products and services, but the insufficient development of the export support infrastructure and the lack of proper state support. Where this infrastructure has been created and is operating, for example, Rosoboronexport, exports are demonstrating sustainable dynamics.

At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the possibilities for Russia to enter foreign markets with relatively simple, mass-produced, labor-intensive types of products are at least very limited, if not completely lost. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and stimulate the production of those types of products that are distinguished by a higher technological and scientific level, i.e. have competitive advantages due to high “quality” rather than low “price”, advantages due not to the cheapness of labor, but to its high qualification. With regard to the problem of imports growing at an accelerating pace, it should be recognized that the Russian economy has reached the limit of the level of openness and has exhausted its reserve of price competitiveness in the sense that further, without special measures of state support, the manufacturing industry of Russia as a whole (and not just its individual unproductive segments) will not be able to able to effectively withstand the consequences of the rapid strengthening of the ruble. Either the real exchange rate of the ruble will strengthen by no more than 2-3% per year, or a set of measures to curb imports is needed.

In this regard, it must be emphasized that, to date, there has been practically no large-scale protectionist policy in Russia. And if in the past it was justified, since the economy was protected by the relatively low exchange rate of the ruble, now this kind of policy needs to be formed and implemented consciously.

Accession to the WTO gives Russia a legal tool to protect the domestic market and support foreign economic expansion. The challenge is to use this tool effectively.

2.3 National economic interests as a priority in the program of modernization of the Russian economy

Today, practically no one doubts that without a qualitative renovation and structural changes, the Russian economy will not be able to overtake, or even catch up with the Western economy in the foreseeable future. All these tasks can be solved if the systemic modernization of the Russian economy is successfully implemented. The results of modernization should be an accelerated pace of technological renewal and overcoming the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors stimulating its raw material orientation. At the same time, raising the standard of living of the population is not only a goal, but also a determining factor and condition, both for the modernization of the domestic economy itself and for intensive economic growth. In terms of costs and duration, the modernization program should represent a colossal investment project that cannot be implemented without economic intervention and the power of the state. But this is only ideally ... Unfortunately, in real life, the above is not observed.

Of all the scientific trends that serve as the ideological source of economic policy, the Russian government has chosen monetarism - the main instrument of the policy of the IMF and industrialized countries. All other methods of regulating the economy were unfairly rejected by the reformers. The fundamental foundations of modern economic science and practice are not at all the ideas about the free market that existed in the middle of the century before last, which our reformers learned with sin. They are based on state regulation of the processes taking place in the economy, including the market sector, which, by the way, existed in the USSR as well. In addition, our reformers did not deign to take into account that, firstly, not a single country in the world that follows the course of monetary reforms has been able to achieve impressive achievements in

national economy, but turned into the periphery of the developed West. Why should Russia be an exception? First, monetarism in a peripheral economy is not able to bring the country to the forefront. On the contrary, it forces the country to occupy a kind of niche in the international division of labor - raw materials, labor-intensive and material-intensive specialization. There is no need to talk about any competitiveness of the country in these conditions, especially about leadership in the global economy! After all, since August 1998, the government has taken a wait-and-see attitude, not daring to take measures to stimulate national aggregate demand and, at the same time, passively resisting the recommendations of the IMF to continue the course of monetarism. Secondly, Russia, a country originally industrialized, unlike other countries, has something to lose. In recent years, Russia has been rapidly deindustrializing. And talk about the country's low industrial development is all myths. If we follow the recommendations of global financial organizations, Russia is left with only

to dutifully forgive the debts of the poorest, to pay “in full” herself, and to “freeze” salaries and pensions in order to save money in a hypothetical fund for future reforms. But it's still half the trouble. The main thing is that our country must find the strength to critically evaluate these recommendations, choosing from them what will really benefit the economy and citizens, and not be guided solely by considerations of international prestige (and not only by them). But there has been no change in the current course of reforms. The "zoological mimicry" of Western institutions continues - Westernization.

If we consider the Russian economy as an element in the system of world economic interests, then we can state that, given the presence of a large supply of natural, labor resources and vast territories, and taking into account the level of scientific and technical potential still preserved from the past, its economy is a serious potential competitor to developed countries. countries.

The principles of egocentrism are at the heart of the state policy of Western states. Their governments are striving to maintain and increase the high social level of their population, trying to consolidate the standards of high standards of life support at the expense of cheap labor, material and raw material resources of the rest of the international community. As in any competitive struggle, it is quite natural for them to pursue a foreign economic policy that helps prevent the revival of Russia's production potential. And the lack of competition from the real sector of the Russian economy allows the West to receive monopoly high profits. Russia, day after day, year after year, is losing its vital basis - production and highly skilled labor. As there is no development of our own production in our country, the technological lag behind Western countries will become more and more significant. Hence the urgent need for the urgent development of a national manufacturing sector based on its own resources and productive forces. Russia needs fundamental institutional

and structural changes. In the event that specific measures are not taken by the state, the lag in economic development will become simply catastrophic.

The main theme of the International Economic Forum held in St. Petersburg in June 2010 was modernization. Even before the forum, the Russian authorities had identified five priority areas for modernization: information technology, telecommunications, nuclear technology, biotechnology and energy efficiency. From the point of view of businessmen of all stripes, it is these areas that will most quickly bring a return on investment. “Projects that create infrastructure never pay off, they create an environment,” explains Ruben Vardanyan, a Russian entrepreneur, owner and head of Troika Dialog, ex-president of the Skolkovo Moscow School of Management. - I think that we are waiting for a horizon of 15-20 years, when the results will be visible. Food and services will pay off

faster than complex machine-building complexes.” There is a position that in other industries you can wait for a return of money for decades and wait for nothing? At the same time, according to the forum participants, it is necessary to modernize the economy with the help of private business, and not from above under pressure from the state.

Today there is a technological, techno-economic, structural degradation of the national economy, degradation of the potential of Russian industry, primarily mechanical engineering. Modern Russian reformers-modernizers who reject the need to develop a new approach to socio-economic problems, different from the economic “mainstream” imposed on the entire scientific and educational world, and are unaware of the existence of a political economy law of outstripping growth rates of products of department I compared to growth rates of products of department II divisions. Despite numerous attempts to “reject” this law as having lost its meaning, it still works. This law manifests itself at the macroeconomic level. However, its requirements are found at the level of the enterprise (economic entity) - in order to increase the production of consumer goods and create a new company in these industries, it is necessary to first increase the production of equipment, raw materials and materials intended for industries of the II division. Also, the branches of engineering that produce new equipment and use new technology always develop at a higher rate than not only the growth rate of products of Division II, but also the growth rate of all industrial products. What are the current realities and the results of the ongoing economic policy? Objectively, the rate of decline in industrial production and investment in Russia is greater than in any of the G20 countries. During the acute phase of the crisis, Russia has the worst figures - approximately 8% of GDP and 40% in engineering. The share of industry in Russia's value added is 28%. Services (61.8%) became the dominant sector of the economy. In the post-Soviet period, throughout all economic reforms, the share of mechanical engineering in the total volume of industrial production has been declining without stopping. Its share in the total investment in 2000-2006. decreased, according to Rosstat, from 6.9 to 5%, incl. in production

machinery and equipment from 1.9 to 1.6%, electrical, optical and electronic equipment - from 1.5 to 1.1%. Agricultural engineering has degraded. In 1990-2008 the production of tractors, according to Rosstat, decreased 19 times, forage harvesters - 14 times, grain harvesters - 9.4 times, milking machines - 50 times. In 2009-2010 production continued to decline. According to Rosstat, the share of mechanical engineering in the total volume of industrial production in Russia decreased to 20% (Poland - 28%, China, Italy,

France, England, Canada - 35-40%, USA - 46%, Japan and Germany - 51-54%).

These and similar deplorable results, expressed in technical and economic uncompetitiveness, play into the hands of our competitors today. As a result, Russia will suffer the most from the global crisis.

In this situation, the question arises, in what position will Russia find itself in the new world? An objective and unbiased analysis of the current situation reveals that if the liberal-monetarist line does not change, then we can only dream of a phase of economic recovery. And the Russian-style modernization itself will gradually turn into an irreversible logical sequence that is detrimental to society as a whole - westernization - demodernization - archaization.

Conclusion.

In modern conditions, no country is able to independently produce the entire range of necessary high-quality products, and often this is not economically feasible. Countries have to resort to international cooperation and exchange. In addition, countries are provided with an additional sales market, expanded access to resources (raw materials, capital and labor). In general, economic borders are gradually being erased in the world, international integration is taking place.

The more deeply a country or region is integrated into the world economy, the more it can use the opportunities of the international distribution of labor and its comparative advantages.

An open economic system plays an important role in the world economy, which is reflected in the export and import of goods and services, the movement of capital. It affects the direction, measure and forms of participation of the country in the international division of labor. The world level of development of productive forces, the internationalization of production excludes the possibility of efficient management of the economy within the framework of closed complexes. International exchange provides an influx of missing or cheaper consumer and capital goods and services, as well as access to additional markets. The main indicators characterizing the role of foreign economic relations include export and import quotas of goods and services, the commodity structure of foreign trade, the nature of participation in the international movement of capital, technology, labor, the degree of openness (internationalization) of the economy.

The openness of the economy is connected with the influence of the country's participation in the international division of labor on the formation of the structure of its production. In a more or less closed economy, the structure of production depends, on the one hand, on the capital and resources available in the country, and on the other hand, on the structure of domestic demand. It is typical for an open economy that the international division of labor influences decision-making concerning the formation of the internal structure of production.

National interests play an important role in the normal functioning of the economy. National interests are not a subjectless category, since their bearer is a national community that has its own history and is distinguished by a certain identity. This community is a collection of individuals with their own, private interests, which coincide with national interests until the individual opposes himself to the national community. The properties of national interests indicate the need for their two-level analysis: internal, based on the awareness of the common interests of various strata and groups, and external, focused on positioning the nation in the world community, where national interests act as private in relation to the whole. National economic interests are the most complex set of relations between national, foreign and international economic entities regarding the production, distribution, exchange and consumption of the country's gross domestic product, aimed at the long-term development of the national economy as an integral and competitive organism in the context of globalization. Today, the national economic interests of the Russian Federation are represented mainly by the interests of national companies that produce the gross domestic product and ensure the integrity, competitiveness and development of the national economy in the context of globalization.

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